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Poker Hand Analysis
Hand #3
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Topic: Hand #3 (Read 2332 times)
tight4better
Hero Member
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Posts: 1019
Hand #3
«
on:
December 28, 2012, 05:39:39 PM »
And finally. So we're getting toward the end of the session now, 5am is approaching and we're still losing.
We're playing £240, covered by both villains. We raise the CO £4 with
Both blinds call, we've history with both, see me as one of them pesky internet kidz.
Anyway. Flop (£12)
c/c and we bet £9. Call call.
Turn (£39)
Villain 1 is capable of holding on with lone
so we bet £26, he calls, bb folds.
River (£91)
He tanks then bets £55. I have basically the worst flush possible but John, like most people at gala does weird shit, and I dunno why he wouldn't try c/r'ing the river as I'm almost always betting. You?
«
Last Edit: December 28, 2012, 10:25:53 PM by tight4better
»
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TL900
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Posts: 2418
Re: Hand #3
«
Reply #1 on:
December 28, 2012, 05:44:54 PM »
Just call i guess. Does he ever bet call AJ with
? I dunno
Fwiw i dont think folding is an option vs described villian.
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@MtSpewmore
Quote from: jgcblack
I wouldn't normally try so hard, but didn't have another opportunity I could wait for. I wasn't ready to surrender what I WANTED SO MUCH, that easily, I couldn't guarantee a call with me staying stoic and relying on a flinch "top pair" calling reflex.
tight4better
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Posts: 1019
Re: Hand #3
«
Reply #2 on:
December 28, 2012, 05:45:43 PM »
Quote from: TL900 on December 28, 2012, 05:44:54 PM
Just call i guess. Does he ever bet call AJ with
? I dunno
Doesn't bet/CALL, might bet/fold
EDIT: He's the type of guy to 3bet me with AJo here
«
Last Edit: December 28, 2012, 06:09:16 PM by tight4better
»
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Honeybadger
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Posts: 1920
Re: Hand #3
«
Reply #3 on:
December 28, 2012, 05:57:41 PM »
In my experience when weak players take a c/c, c/c, donk river line it often means they flopped the non-vulnerable nuts (i.e. they do it with flopped full houses, or flopped sets on dry boards, or flopped flushes - but not usually with stuff like a flopped set on a wet board, since they would c/r here at some point to protect their hand). So readless I'd assume he flopped a bigger flush over half the time. But weak players also do things like c/c all way with draws then donk river when they missed as a bluff, and they do lots of other random stuff too. So I'd call and expect to win the pot a little less than half the time.
This is based purely on my personal experience of facing this line from weaker players.
«
Last Edit: December 28, 2012, 06:00:19 PM by Honeybadger
»
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tight4better
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Re: Hand #3
«
Reply #4 on:
December 28, 2012, 06:08:18 PM »
Quote from: Honeybadger on December 28, 2012, 05:57:41 PM
In my experience when weak players take a c/c, c/c, donk river line it often means they flopped the non-vulnerable nuts (i.e. they do it with flopped full houses, or flopped sets on dry boards, or flopped flushes - but not usually with stuff like a flopped set on a wet board, since they would c/r here at some point to protect their hand). So readless I'd assume he flopped a bigger flush over half the time. But weak players also do things like c/c all way with draws then donk river when they missed as a bluff, and they do lots of other random stuff too. So I'd call and expect to win the pot a little less than half the time.
This is based purely on my personal experience of facing this line from weaker players.
Cheers for this pal.
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tight4better
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Re: Hand #3
«
Reply #5 on:
December 28, 2012, 08:41:04 PM »
Result ->
Folded, he showed T5dd
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zerofive
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Posts: 1884
Re: Hand #3
«
Reply #6 on:
December 28, 2012, 10:18:24 PM »
Flop runout is wrong btw if result is correct.
I know we have a shit hand, but go bigger pre in these games. it's pretty easy to dictate the action so we should aim to control the pot by making it bigger, even though it might seem counter-intuitive.
Basically if they see you as an annoying pre-flop spaz, then all they're going to do is call with garbage hands oop and c/fold some flops and most turns, so we make loads of money in these games by chipping away at stacks with our superior barreling tekkers.
If every time you make it £5 instead of £4, then £13 flop instead of £9, that's an extra fiver you're making every time they fold the turn, which is most of the time. When we have a real one we can bet the turn smaller and start picking up additional chips there. Exploitable as anything but most of these guys didn't come to the casino to exploit you, they came to make some good hands and natter about the valets.
Anyway that was somewhat of a digression. With regards to this specific hand versus this specific villain, I appreciate that sometimes he's going to bet here with a missed flush draw and a rivered pair as some sort of clueless merge, but it feels like a fold a lot of the time even though this is very hard to do when you're losing.
Honeybadger is spot on as always, but with regards to this particular villain: he is going to give you a little less credit for a hand than a normal reg in these games, so even though you think he should check 'cause you're "always betting," he's afraid of you checking behind because you "never have anything" so is desperately trying to get a call. This line is his idea of THE TARP.
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tight4better
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Re: Hand #3
«
Reply #7 on:
December 28, 2012, 10:25:40 PM »
Quote from: zerofive on December 28, 2012, 10:18:24 PM
Flop runout is wrong btw if result is correct.
I know we have a shit hand, but go bigger pre in these games. it's pretty easy to dictate the action so we should aim to control the pot by making it bigger, even though it might seem counter-intuitive.
Basically if they see you as an annoying pre-flop spaz, then all they're going to do is call with garbage hands oop and c/fold some flops and most turns, so we make loads of money in these games by chipping away at stacks with our superior barreling tekkers.
If every time you make it £5 instead of £4, then £13 flop instead of £9, that's an extra fiver you're making every time they fold the turn, which is most of the time. When we have a real one we can bet the turn smaller and start picking up additional chips there. Exploitable as anything but most of these guys didn't come to the casino to exploit you, they came to make some good hands and natter about the valets.
Anyway that was somewhat of a digression. With regards to this specific hand versus this specific villain, I appreciate that sometimes he's going to bet here with a missed flush draw and a rivered pair as some sort of clueless merge, but it feels like a fold a lot of the time even though this is very hard to do when you're losing.
Honeybadger is spot on as always, but with regards to this particular villain: he is going to give you a little less credit for a hand than a normal reg in these games, so even though you think he should check 'cause you're "always betting," he's afraid of you checking behind because you "never have anything" so is desperately trying to get a call. This line is his idea of THE TARP.
Soz
was
. Will talk to you about the rest when I see you probs?
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tight4better
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Re: Hand #3
«
Reply #8 on:
December 28, 2012, 10:31:40 PM »
Just feels weird opening for 5x pre with no limpers, it is live though I guess :/
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muckthenuts
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Re: Hand #3
«
Reply #9 on:
December 28, 2012, 11:21:33 PM »
I would go for the 4x pre from the CO. I get what Sean's saying but the decreased spr does reduce our edge plus increases variance, whereas with the lead/a smaller psr we can manipulate the size of the pot to our advantage when we want to in these soft games anyway. In general live i start opening slightly smaller the better my position gets.
Agree this seems like a pretty annoying fold. Sizing too seems very valuey.
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stato_1
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#Team_Eureka
Re: Hand #3
«
Reply #10 on:
December 28, 2012, 11:27:20 PM »
folding seems pretty absurd
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Sulphur man
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Re: Hand #3
«
Reply #11 on:
December 28, 2012, 11:34:15 PM »
Quote from: stato_1 on December 28, 2012, 11:27:20 PM
folding seems pretty absurd
Pre?
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I've never played any game, or done anything that was so powerful at making you believe that you 'owned' it... before making you realize that you actually don't.
Sulphur man
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Posts: 602
Re: Hand #3
«
Reply #12 on:
December 28, 2012, 11:43:33 PM »
You get some good advice here, just surprised nobody has mentioned quitting the game. There is always tomorrow.
I'm fully aware this is PHA so my view is as follows in terms of nut lines to take.
1 Quit the game.
2 Fold Pre.
Big fan of Tommy Angelo so will quote the man regarding folding Reciprocality.
"I'd take the next hand. And that'd be one bad quitting decision. After that hand, I'd have the option to quit, but no, I'd take another hand — I'd make another quitting mistake. That's two quitting mistakes in four minutes. And I had just begun to not quit.
In time, my blood started to clot, and I got a little bit better at quitting, and then a little more better, and then one day I realized that every session of cash-game poker I ever play will end on a quit, so I really should continue forever to work on getting better at quitting, and a few years later I realized that if I wanted to quit well every session, then I'd have to be sharp at the very end of every session, since that's always when the quitting happens, and a few years after that I realized that no action is an island, that everyone else's sessions always end on a quit too, and that the real reason there is money to be made by quitting well is because sometimes my opponents don't. Reciprocality."
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I've never played any game, or done anything that was so powerful at making you believe that you 'owned' it... before making you realize that you actually don't.
SuuPRlim
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Posts: 10437
Re: Hand #3
«
Reply #13 on:
December 29, 2012, 12:29:36 AM »
no-one has considered raising? We got £136 behind his donk, not saying we should raise im just shocked no-one has thought about it.
In game I know my fist instinct would be to ship and I'd prolly sit there for a little bit and try convince myself to just call.
Never, ever, ever fold, ever. I don't think you even need to consider it.
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http://lildaveslife.blogspot.com/
www.thefirmpoker.com
zerofive
Hero Member
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Posts: 1884
Re: Hand #3
«
Reply #14 on:
December 29, 2012, 12:42:22 AM »
Quote from: SuuPRlim on December 29, 2012, 12:29:36 AM
no-one has considered raising? We got £136 behind his donk, not saying we should raise im just shocked no-one has thought about it.
In game I know my fist instinct would be to ship and I'd prolly sit there for a little bit and try convince myself to just call.
Never, ever, ever fold, ever. I don't think you even need to consider it.
Why not?
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