blonde poker forum

3 left

Payouts are

44300
25100
15100

Stacks are

Button 2.3m
Small blind 9m
Big Blind 8m

Blinds are 60-120k

Button raises to 250k

Small blind makes it 1.2m

Big blind looks down at  Jd Jc


Button is young and active

Small blind is a middle aged live Pro.

We probably think we are the tightest, most solid player at the table. Least likely to make mistakes.

The money is very important to the button

The money is irrelevant to the small blind, in so far as you can tell


What do you do with Jacks, bearing in mind ICM?

How important is the money to us?

We are in make up, have 50% of ourself and our backer is commentating, watching every hand

We need a bink

I would jam all day long

Blinds were 100/200k i believe tighty? Or is this just in theory if they were 60/120? So i think the open and the 3bet would have been bigger and you just gota jam imo.

The Button's stack size makes it horrible.

If we fold, the button shoves and is called, then wins, he has 4.6m and we are chipleader. Happy days.
If we fold, the button shoves and the SB folds (unlikely), then we still become a marginal chipleader. Happy days.
If we fold, the button shoves and is called, and loses, we make 10k (5k, as we only have 50%) in real money. Very Happy days!
If we fold, and the button folds, meh, move on.

If we flat call, the button will either shove or fold.
If he folds we must play passive down the streets as the money is so important to us. We are very likely to fold our hand at some point I would imagine. Unhappy.
If he shoves, then the SB shoves, we can fold happy I think.
If he shoves and the SB folds, then we call quite happily.

Or, we raise (and probably all in, cos we ain't folding). If we are called, we are either out or on our way to a massive bink.
They may both fold, which is good.
Or the button calls, which we are fine with.
Or the SB calls, which we are likely not thrilled about, and we may be out of the tournament
Or they both call, which is unlikely to be great, and we could still get knocked out.

GTO says that if we fold, we are happy 3 in 4 times. If we call, we are happy 2 in 3 times. If we raise, we are happy about 3.5 in 6 (3 in 4 at best) times I think, but vitally, the worst outcome means WE ARE OUT.

So, based on all that, I believe the optimal line is to FOLD JACKS three handed.

Not saying I can do this in game mind you.....

I would 100% peel with the hope that Button jams, and then either iso jam or call depending upon what options we are left with.

If button somehow folds Play hand accordingly post flop

Fyp

I would consider a call call line if I was 100% certain it would get checked down but doesn't sound like big stack is going to oblige

just read jj and 3 handed,

just keep raising till you're all in.

Who is the commentator I didn't know who it was

But remember, we are the least likely to make mistakes. The most solid player at the table.

And we are not unhappy if we fold, whatever the outcome.

We could be very unhappy if we do anything else.

This is a very unique spot and I am not advocating folding JJ three handed as a habit by any means, but ICM and this:


means it might just be a fold. In fact, I am almost certain it is.

Think Tom is right Tighty, when this hand played out the blinds were 100/200k.

I thought that the button's stack was around 3m, but can't be 100% without rewatching the stream.

(BTN) opens to 400k (3m+)

(SB) Martyn makes it 1.4m (8.5m)

(BB) Neil looks down at JJ (9m)


Payouts

3rd  £15k
2nd £25k
1st  £44k

With the stacks as they are I'd have to call to see what the button does. If he jams and the SB jams I'd have to fold. Obviously calling it off against the short stack.

If the button folds then I probably go bust down the streets unless the board gets a bit nasty.

This being said in the heat of battle I probably wouldn't think like this. Presumably everyone's been in raise/shove/fold mode so when you see JJ 3 handed it's likely to just end up in the middle as quick as possible.

Sizings seem odd?

I think it all depends on perceived edges after this hand. I could make a much better argument for folding if I had a decent edge and without it is probably best to go the pleno route.

His backer should be very pleased with how he played and not be too results orientated.  He was at my table late afternoon, early evening day 2 and was playing really well if it is who I think it is.

 3 handed don't think you ever get away.  Hating the bet sizing on the 3 bet.  If that isn't standard for our oppo, maybe we have an out to our inevitable doom.

Obviously my entire analysis is based on the fact that we could go bust if we jam.

If stacks are in fact the other way around, I will have to have a rethink, but am struggling to see how my chips don't end up in the middle.

As absurd as it sounds I may fold with pay jumps being so huge and the two players left in.

Sizing is absurd but is just 'lollivepro' saying i'm not folding to your jam from the button so based on this text I'd guesstimate his range to be something like 88-QQ, AJ+ KQs. With an inclination to peel weaker broadways, possibly pairs and SCs. (Could be way out here don't know his 3b frequency) - JJ is 60% v this range. Button most likely only continues with QQ+ if BB enters pot. - TT is 54%. And I really cant put a figure on the % he folds after 3b to 1.2, don't think it's going to be very high.

Wouldn't 3b/f 2.1m, he will probably put in the 99 TT and AQs 3 handed anyway.

Having position on SB for future hands 65bb deep with a significant edge is monumental at this point too.

Haven't run any ICM #s but I will later as I'm curious, and obv they're very important lol.


Don't think it is a simple jam that it looks like at first glance

The more I look at it, the more I am certain this is a fold, with Tighty's original text at least. Which it appears is not a true reflection of the hand in question.

You seem to be forgetting that we are able to put in the last raise. It is essentially for the SB's tournament too, we can put huge ICM pressure on him by jamming.

Jamming unless I have a read that SB is super strong with this size 3b

So you're just jamming to get him to fold everything we're ahead of?

This deep, live and with position shouldn't we be looking to make the most of our nice hand?

I guess maybe we can call, but it just seems a bit weird

I'm happy to sacrifice value from pairs that we probably dont get post flop anyway, given how strong cold-calling looks, to get KQ mayyyyyyybe AQ and even any Ax Kx hands out of there

"This deep" doesn't really apply when calling gives us a stack to pot ratio of barely more than 2.

Position, maybe. But this way he has the lead and any c-bet is a tournament life based decision for us.

Calling pre is horrible

Blinds were 100/200k and I also think that the button's stack was around 3m, but can't be 100% without rewatching the stream.

(BTN) opens to 400k (3m+)

(SB) Martyn makes it 1.4m (8.5m)

(BB) Neil looks down at JJ (9m)


1st £44k
2nd £25k
3rd £15k

thank you!

my memory is not what it was!

No worries, a few years ago I'd have probably thought they were 6 handed at that time of the morning :)

I think this hand should play this way every time. It just appears so shocking because of the prize structure. This pot practically represnts a 30k jump from 3rd to 1st. Running JJ into QQ 3 handed is definitely a cooler that you shouldn't get away from. If the 3rd guy has <5bb left then we can consider making a drastic ICM decision but there's too many outcomes after folding JJ where we probably wish we'd have taken this spot. (this is without knowing our opponent had QQ of course)