Title: ICM Spot vs big stack. Am I being silly? Post by: cambridgealex on January 08, 2013, 04:11:02 AM .FR 30 1r1a final table. We start with 34bbs, in bb, Cspire (cutoff) is vactive, aware, good betsizes, 3bets in good spots and is using his chip lead v well. Rest are playing pretty nitty. 3x <20bb stacks, 4 that cover me.
Payouts: 9532 6805 5142 3870 2701 2171 1662 1142 Obv 3b/call standard play, but my question is regarding ICM. I had a feeling that ICMwise we really don't want him to jam on us and get it all in here, even though I'd expect him to 4b jam pretty wide. PokerStars Hand #91994278809: Tournament #664235529, €27+€3 EUR Hold'em No Limit - Level XXXIV (17500/35000) - 2013/01/08 3:11:13 WET [2013/01/07 22:11:13 ET] Table '664235529 65' 9-max Seat #5 is the button Seat 1: DarkFitz (520117 in chips) Seat 2: RUallFRENCH? (1469145 in chips) Seat 3: Sassie77 (1369902 in chips) Seat 4: Cspire (3178019 in chips) Seat 5: MobertDeniro (705894 in chips) Seat 6: lecastor33 (1512408 in chips) Seat 8: Sr Croissant (1198180 in chips) Seat 9: BeavinBeaver (623835 in chips) DarkFitz: posts the ante 4375 RUallFRENCH?: posts the ante 4375 Sassie77: posts the ante 4375 Cspire: posts the ante 4375 MobertDeniro: posts the ante 4375 lecastor33: posts the ante 4375 Sr Croissant: posts the ante 4375 BeavinBeaver: posts the ante 4375 lecastor33: posts small blind 17500 Sr Croissant: posts big blind 35000 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Sr Croissant [Ts Th] BeavinBeaver: folds DarkFitz: folds RUallFRENCH?: folds Sassie77: folds Cspire: raises 35000 to 70000 MobertDeniro: folds lecastor33: folds Sr Croissant: calls Interested in opinions of those who've studied ICM more than me, and those who could point me in the direction of good icm calculator. Title: Re: ICM Spot vs big stack. Am I being silly? Post by: youthnkzR on January 08, 2013, 09:40:25 AM Don't like to have to 3b/c with 1010 here and if I feel he will 4b jam wide I'm not 3bing to fold so call is fine IMO.
Title: Re: ICM Spot vs big stack. Am I being silly? Post by: skolsuper on January 08, 2013, 09:58:30 AM He's probably opening close to 100% here so if I read it correctly and you have 30bbs I think a jam will be fine. I prefer 3b/c to just flatting, think your life is only going to get worse down the streets unless you flop a set, and purely set-mining is not going to be profitable vs a v wide range here.
Title: Re: ICM Spot vs big stack. Am I being silly? Post by: NigDawG on January 08, 2013, 10:13:09 AM 3bet calling TT here vs described villain opening cutoff has to be best i'd of thought
Title: Re: ICM Spot vs big stack. Am I being silly? Post by: cambridgealex on January 08, 2013, 11:11:37 AM Just found an icm calculator.
ICM of stack before the hand: € 4,151.57 ICM of stack if we double: € 5,570.99 So even he's opening 100% and 4bet piling 100% (so we get TT in vs a random hand which is 75% according to poker stove) - it's only a breakeven play. So it's going to be a losing play to 3b/call, because we'll obv have less than 75% equity vs his range which won't be atc. @Keys, it's 34bbs, too much to just pile no? Though seems a better play than 3/c according to the numbers. Title: Re: ICM Spot vs big stack. Am I being silly? Post by: edgascoigne on January 08, 2013, 11:13:26 AM Just found an icm calculator. ICM of stack before the hand: € 4,151.57 ICM of stack if we double: € 5,570.99 So even he's opening 100% and 4bet piling 100% (so we get TT in vs a random hand which is 75% according to poker stove) - it's only a breakeven play. So it's going to be a losing play to 3b/call, because we'll obv have less than 75% equity vs his range which won't be atc. @Keys, it's 34bbs, too much to just pile no? Though seems a better play than 3/c according to the numbers. What about if he folds to our 3b? Or is the difference sufficiently negligible as to be worth ignoring? Title: Re: ICM Spot vs big stack. Am I being silly? Post by: MC on January 08, 2013, 11:26:11 AM Just found an icm calculator. ICM of stack before the hand: € 4,151.57 ICM of stack if we double: € 5,570.99 So even he's opening 100% and 4bet piling 100% (so we get TT in vs a random hand which is 75% according to poker stove) - it's only a breakeven play. So it's going to be a losing play to 3b/call, because we'll obv have less than 75% equity vs his range which won't be atc. @Keys, it's 34bbs, too much to just pile no? Though seems a better play than 3/c according to the numbers. It feels like this doesn't account for future equity Title: Re: ICM Spot vs big stack. Am I being silly? Post by: cambridgealex on January 08, 2013, 11:34:36 AM Just found an icm calculator. ICM of stack before the hand: € 4,151.57 ICM of stack if we double: € 5,570.99 So even he's opening 100% and 4bet piling 100% (so we get TT in vs a random hand which is 75% according to poker stove) - it's only a breakeven play. So it's going to be a losing play to 3b/call, because we'll obv have less than 75% equity vs his range which won't be atc. @Keys, it's 34bbs, too much to just pile no? Though seems a better play than 3/c according to the numbers. It feels like this doesn't account for future equity you mean our stack will be worth more than that because of our chip position/skill advantage? Can see that yes, but vs a realistic 4b piling range we are going to be more like 60% so it still is gonna be bad no? Title: Re: ICM Spot vs big stack. Am I being silly? Post by: MC on January 08, 2013, 12:51:28 PM Maybe you haven't accounted for us having locked up €1142
ICM of stack before the hand: € 4,151.57 ICM of stack if we double: € 5,570.99 So we lose €3k in equity when we lose, and gain €1420 (let's say €1500, which is fine given overlay in the pot) when we double. So you're looking more at needing to have 66% equity by your own calcs So 60% vs 66% with some consideration for future equity makes it much closer than you are suggesting (I think) Title: Re: ICM Spot vs big stack. Am I being silly? Post by: doubleup on January 08, 2013, 01:19:58 PM Maybe you haven't accounted for us having locked up €1142 ICM of stack before the hand: € 4,151.57 ICM of stack if we double: € 5,570.99 So we lose €3k in equity when we lose, and gain €1420 (let's say €1500, which is fine given overlay in the pot) when we double. So you're looking more at needing to have 66% equity by your own calcs So 60% vs 66% with some consideration for future equity makes it much closer than you are suggesting (I think) hero has a decent stack - I don't see why you are ignoring "future equity" in his present stack - but adding it in if he wins (if I have understood you correctly) The only factor I would see in hero taking on villain would be if villain is being so aggressive that it is preventing hero from stealing from the stacks to his left. Title: Re: ICM Spot vs big stack. Am I being silly? Post by: cambridgealex on January 08, 2013, 01:38:09 PM Effectively swapping stacks with this guy would be really good for me, as yeh I was forced to play pretty tight and he was stealing all the good spots.
MC, yes could easily have cocked that up. Title: Re: ICM Spot vs big stack. Am I being silly? Post by: pleno1 on January 08, 2013, 02:34:08 PM 3b/call prolly worst pAir though. Vs this villain at least.
Title: Re: ICM Spot vs big stack. Am I being silly? Post by: PizzicatoXev on January 08, 2013, 08:24:34 PM How are we percieved?
Title: Re: ICM Spot vs big stack. Am I being silly? Post by: titaniumbean on January 09, 2013, 04:20:24 PM Title: Re: ICM Spot vs big stack. Am I being silly? Post by: action man on January 10, 2013, 01:20:11 PM 3b/call >>jam>>>>peel imo
Title: Re: ICM Spot vs big stack. Am I being silly? Post by: cambridgealex on January 10, 2013, 02:44:32 PM 3b/call >>jam>>>>peel imo OK thanks. Think general consensus is that I was being a bit silly. It worked out well though, it came T23 I checked called, 2 check check, A river, flush gets there, I check he put me allin for 3x pot :D With 76o :D Title: Re: ICM Spot vs big stack. Am I being silly? Post by: pleno1 on January 10, 2013, 04:23:19 PM 3b/call >>jam>>>>peel imo Title: Re: ICM Spot vs big stack. Am I being silly? Post by: action man on January 10, 2013, 04:33:20 PM now imagine you have 99 or JJ
Title: Re: ICM Spot vs big stack. Am I being silly? Post by: outragous76 on January 10, 2013, 05:24:36 PM now imagine you have 99 or JJ i thought this too |