blonde poker forum

.FR 30 1r1a final table. We start with 34bbs, in bb, Cspire (cutoff) is vactive, aware, good betsizes, 3bets in good spots and is using his chip lead v well. Rest are playing pretty nitty. 3x <20bb stacks, 4 that cover me.

Payouts:
9532
6805
5142
3870
2701
2171
1662
1142

Obv 3b/call standard play, but my question is regarding ICM. I had a feeling that ICMwise we really don't want him to jam on us and get it all in here, even though I'd expect him to 4b jam pretty wide.

PokerStars Hand #91994278809: Tournament #664235529, €27+€3 EUR Hold'em No Limit - Level XXXIV (17500/35000) - 2013/01/08 3:11:13 WET [2013/01/07 22:11:13 ET]
Table '664235529 65' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: DarkFitz (520117 in chips)
Seat 2: RUallFRENCH? (1469145 in chips)
Seat 3: Sassie77 (1369902 in chips)
Seat 4: Cspire (3178019 in chips)
Seat 5: MobertDeniro (705894 in chips)
Seat 6: lecastor33 (1512408 in chips)
Seat 8: Sr Croissant (1198180 in chips)
Seat 9: BeavinBeaver (623835 in chips)
DarkFitz: posts the ante 4375
RUallFRENCH?: posts the ante 4375
Sassie77: posts the ante 4375
Cspire: posts the ante 4375
MobertDeniro: posts the ante 4375
lecastor33: posts the ante 4375
Sr Croissant: posts the ante 4375
BeavinBeaver: posts the ante 4375
lecastor33: posts small blind 17500
Sr Croissant: posts big blind 35000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Sr Croissant [Ts Th]
BeavinBeaver: folds
DarkFitz: folds
RUallFRENCH?: folds
Sassie77: folds
Cspire: raises 35000 to 70000
MobertDeniro: folds
lecastor33: folds
Sr Croissant: calls

Interested in opinions of those who've studied ICM more than me, and those who could point me in the direction of good icm calculator.

Don't like to have to 3b/c with 1010 here and if I feel he will 4b jam wide I'm not 3bing to fold so call is fine IMO.

He's probably opening close to 100% here so if I read it correctly and you have 30bbs I think a jam will be fine. I prefer 3b/c to just flatting, think your life is only going to get worse down the streets unless you flop a set, and purely set-mining is not going to be profitable vs a v wide range here.

3bet calling TT here vs described villain opening cutoff has to be best i'd of thought

Just found an icm calculator.

ICM of stack before the hand: € 4,151.57
ICM of stack if we double: € 5,570.99

So even he's opening 100% and 4bet piling 100% (so we get TT in vs a random hand which is 75% according to poker stove) - it's only a breakeven play.

So it's going to be a losing play to 3b/call, because we'll obv have less than 75% equity vs his range which won't be atc.

@Keys, it's 34bbs, too much to just pile no? Though seems a better play than 3/c according to the numbers.

What about if he folds to our 3b? Or is the difference sufficiently negligible as to be worth ignoring?

It feels like this doesn't account for future equity

you mean our stack will be worth more than that because of our chip position/skill advantage?

Can see that yes, but vs a realistic 4b piling range we are going to be more like 60% so it still is gonna be bad no?

Maybe you haven't accounted for us having locked up €1142

ICM of stack before the hand: € 4,151.57
ICM of stack if we double: € 5,570.99

So we lose €3k in equity when we lose, and gain €1420 (let's say €1500, which is fine given overlay in the pot) when we double.

So you're looking more at needing to have 66% equity by your own calcs

So 60% vs 66% with some consideration for future equity makes it much closer than you are suggesting (I think)

hero has a decent stack - I don't see why you are ignoring "future equity" in his present stack - but adding it in if he wins (if I have understood you correctly)

The only factor I would see in hero taking on villain would be if villain is being so aggressive that it is preventing hero from stealing from the stacks to his left.

Effectively swapping stacks with this guy would be really good for me, as yeh I was forced to play pretty tight and he was stealing all the good spots.

MC, yes could easily have cocked that up.

3b/call prolly worst pAir though. Vs this villain at least.

How are we percieved?

posh?

3b/call >>jam>>>>peel imo

OK thanks. Think general consensus is that I was being a bit silly.

It worked out well though, it came T23 I checked called, 2 check check, A river, flush gets there, I check he put me allin for 3x pot :D With 76o :D

now imagine you have 99 or JJ

i thought this too