ICM Spot vs big stack. Am I being silly?

[cambridgealex]

.FR 30 1r1a final table. We start with 34bbs, in bb, Cspire (cutoff) is vactive, aware, good betsizes, 3bets in good spots and is using his chip lead v well. Rest are playing pretty nitty. 3x <20bb stacks, 4 that cover me.

Payouts:
9532
6805
5142
3870
2701
2171
1662
1142

Obv 3b/call standard play, but my question is regarding ICM. I had a feeling that ICMwise we really don't want him to jam on us and get it all in here, even though I'd expect him to 4b jam pretty wide.

PokerStars Hand #91994278809: Tournament #664235529, €27+€3 EUR Hold'em No Limit - Level XXXIV (17500/35000) - 2013/01/08 3:11:13 WET [2013/01/07 22:11:13 ET]
Table '664235529 65' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: DarkFitz (520117 in chips)
Seat 2: RUallFRENCH? (1469145 in chips)
Seat 3: Sassie77 (1369902 in chips)
Seat 4: Cspire (3178019 in chips)
Seat 5: MobertDeniro (705894 in chips)
Seat 6: lecastor33 (1512408 in chips)
Seat 8: Sr Croissant (1198180 in chips)
Seat 9: BeavinBeaver (623835 in chips)
DarkFitz: posts the ante 4375
RUallFRENCH?: posts the ante 4375
Sassie77: posts the ante 4375
Cspire: posts the ante 4375
MobertDeniro: posts the ante 4375
lecastor33: posts the ante 4375
Sr Croissant: posts the ante 4375
BeavinBeaver: posts the ante 4375
lecastor33: posts small blind 17500
Sr Croissant: posts big blind 35000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Sr Croissant [ ]
BeavinBeaver: folds
DarkFitz: folds
RUallFRENCH?: folds
Sassie77: folds
Cspire: raises 35000 to 70000
MobertDeniro: folds
lecastor33: folds
Sr Croissant: calls

Interested in opinions of those who've studied ICM more than me, and those who could point me in the direction of good icm calculator.

[youthnkzR]

Don't like to have to 3b/c with 1010 here and if I feel he will 4b jam wide I'm not 3bing to fold so call is fine IMO.

[skolsuper]

He's probably opening close to 100% here so if I read it correctly and you have 30bbs I think a jam will be fine. I prefer 3b/c to just flatting, think your life is only going to get worse down the streets unless you flop a set, and purely set-mining is not going to be profitable vs a v wide range here.

[NigDawG]

3bet calling TT here vs described villain opening cutoff has to be best i'd of thought

[cambridgealex]

Just found an icm calculator.

ICM of stack before the hand: € 4,151.57
ICM of stack if we double: € 5,570.99

So even he's opening 100% and 4bet piling 100% (so we get TT in vs a random hand which is 75% according to poker stove) - it's only a breakeven play.

So it's going to be a losing play to 3b/call, because we'll obv have less than 75% equity vs his range which won't be atc.

@Keys, it's 34bbs, too much to just pile no? Though seems a better play than 3/c according to the numbers.

[edgascoigne]

Just found an icm calculator.

ICM of stack before the hand: € 4,151.57
ICM of stack if we double: € 5,570.99

So even he's opening 100% and 4bet piling 100% (so we get TT in vs a random hand which is 75% according to poker stove) - it's only a breakeven play.

So it's going to be a losing play to 3b/call, because we'll obv have less than 75% equity vs his range which won't be atc.

@Keys, it's 34bbs, too much to just pile no? Though seems a better play than 3/c according to the numbers.

What about if he folds to our 3b? Or is the difference sufficiently negligible as to be worth ignoring?

[MC]

Just found an icm calculator.

ICM of stack before the hand: € 4,151.57
ICM of stack if we double: € 5,570.99

So even he's opening 100% and 4bet piling 100% (so we get TT in vs a random hand which is 75% according to poker stove) - it's only a breakeven play.

So it's going to be a losing play to 3b/call, because we'll obv have less than 75% equity vs his range which won't be atc.

@Keys, it's 34bbs, too much to just pile no? Though seems a better play than 3/c according to the numbers.

It feels like this doesn't account for future equity

[cambridgealex]

Just found an icm calculator.

ICM of stack before the hand: € 4,151.57
ICM of stack if we double: € 5,570.99

So even he's opening 100% and 4bet piling 100% (so we get TT in vs a random hand which is 75% according to poker stove) - it's only a breakeven play.

So it's going to be a losing play to 3b/call, because we'll obv have less than 75% equity vs his range which won't be atc.

@Keys, it's 34bbs, too much to just pile no? Though seems a better play than 3/c according to the numbers.

It feels like this doesn't account for future equity

you mean our stack will be worth more than that because of our chip position/skill advantage?

Can see that yes, but vs a realistic 4b piling range we are going to be more like 60% so it still is gonna be bad no?

[MC]

Maybe you haven't accounted for us having locked up €1142

ICM of stack before the hand: € 4,151.57
ICM of stack if we double: € 5,570.99

So we lose €3k in equity when we lose, and gain €1420 (let's say €1500, which is fine given overlay in the pot) when we double.

So you're looking more at needing to have 66% equity by your own calcs

So 60% vs 66% with some consideration for future equity makes it much closer than you are suggesting (I think)

[doubleup]

Maybe you haven't accounted for us having locked up €1142

ICM of stack before the hand: € 4,151.57
ICM of stack if we double: € 5,570.99

So we lose €3k in equity when we lose, and gain €1420 (let's say €1500, which is fine given overlay in the pot) when we double.

So you're looking more at needing to have 66% equity by your own calcs

So 60% vs 66% with some consideration for future equity makes it much closer than you are suggesting (I think)

hero has a decent stack - I don't see why you are ignoring "future equity" in his present stack - but adding it in if he wins (if I have understood you correctly)

The only factor I would see in hero taking on villain would be if villain is being so aggressive that it is preventing hero from stealing from the stacks to his left.

[cambridgealex]

Effectively swapping stacks with this guy would be really good for me, as yeh I was forced to play pretty tight and he was stealing all the good spots.

MC, yes could easily have cocked that up.

[pleno1]

3b/call prolly worst pAir though. Vs this villain at least.

[PizzicatoXev]

How are we percieved?

[titaniumbean]

How are we percieved?

posh?

[action man]

3b/call >>jam>>>>peel imo