blonde poker forum

2/5 at the Vic. Been playing 6 handed since I started. Playing 2500.

Weakish young reg opens HJ to 20 playing 1.5k. Other reg flats CO from 2k. I peel AhTh from Btn. Blinds fold.

Flop j52 rainbow, 1 heart. OR checks. CO bets 35, I float.

Turn Ao, he now checks. I bet 50, he calls.

River T, he donks for 270. Thoughts?

Not really too interested in thoughts on play before river, since given the way the game has been and the way the guys have played so far I'm happy with the rest.

785/fold i guess. We cant ever be bluffing to a much smaller size. I don't really see a reason for us not to raise altough bizarre lines are normally stronger hands unless opp has shown tendency to bluff.

call, dont see any value in raising. We will have the best hand alot but don't think he ever donk/calls worse 2 pair. Dont think I can ever find a fold here either, pretty dirty if he had the TT

Your smallish turn betsize makes me want to raise because I think he'll have a tough time giving you credit for sets/AJ/34s. I think he gets curious and flicks in with JT often enough that raising is fine so I make it 825.

Obv don't know the gameflow in this spot but I'm not really in love with the idea of floating here. Obv AThh would be one of the first hands to go into a floating range on this board but I have a hard time believing that a weak reg leads much air here OOP to (I assume) and active BTN for only half pot. lol sample size etc but if we're still not fistpump raising on one of the nutsier runouts I'm not sure that this is a spot where I want to have a floating range.

Understand exactly what ur saying dan, pretty happy floating vs this guy tho since I'm pretty happy hell pretty much turn his hand over on a lot of turns.

For me the decision seemed to comfortably between fold and call. Don't think people are paying enough attention to his sizing here? He's Jewish if this helps at all.

And yeah the game is pretty much all regs, but they're generally pretty weak/tight. I'd say I've been comfortably the most active but definitely not way OOL.

yeh its obv a call/fold decision on river- he's very polarised.

Given it seems pretty hard for us to be bluffing and we can have 22/55/JJ/34s/AJ and maybe some combos of KQ I don't like raising. I think he can be value betting JT often enough here to call but his line seems pretty silly. Seems like if he's checking the turn then he should be checking the river almost always and if he is donking the river with sets / 2 pairs then when he checks you can feel pretty good about bluffing lots and value betting thin in these spots vs him and not worrying about him exploiting that when he sort of caps his checking range by donking most nutted stuff. Don't think I ever find a fold here.

As a default yeah I'd agree with what I assume you thought at that time which is that his sizing makes him pretty polarised. Definitely willing to accept that I'm not giving the guy enough credit by putting some 'omg I made 2 pair I bet lots' hands in his river potting range. If you definitely don't think that he does this with JT then I think it makes is a call.

I'd imagine that a middle of the road reg raises almost every better hand on the turn though? I mean you're 300bbs deep he's gotta get some money in the pot somehow and surely he must realise this? I see what you mean though that its plausible that he doesn't use this sizing for any worse value hands, but your line doesn't really look very nutted either so I wouldn't want to be too quick to completely eliminate some random air from his river range. Perhaps some mid pairs that led a dry board and decided to float the turn with a plan to smash any scary-ish rivers to get you off a weakish Jx? Dunno sounds kinda optimistic.

I dunno, I guess if you think that he's tricky enough with his flop leads for you to be able to float then he could plausibly be doing something silly on this river. That plus the fact that his line isn't really congruent with a nutted hand for this board makes me not want to fold.

Def agree with this

Guy who was in seat 8 in yamaka?

seems like a fold, was there a bdfd roll in? probably jj/aa moreso than 22/55

looks like a spot I'd call every time in game (I defo wouldnt raise), but would defo look for excuses to fold afterwards, I think I've just seen too many wierd things in these types of games to actually fold in game but in my experience people dont really bluff like this, speshly with big bets (that would fit into your "weakish player" description as well)

Either way seems very close so I'd call although could easily be convinced folding is better (Which I might already have been)

I don't find that people tend to bluff like this, plus its kinda hard to have a check call turn range that decides to take the consecutive action of lead bluffing. Everything seems consistent with JT, he would probably be more likely to bet himself or check raise with something strong on the turn (the paradox of the fact that he is a weak reg, but probably doesn't know this, and therefore doesn't know you don't have much incentive to call him down light when he does bomb/cr turn with sets?)
These kind of bets on the river i find tend to be hands that are strong but not comfortable check raising, JT would fit that category well also. I think if your hand looked stronger i would find a fold though, with flop call/small turn bet he is probably comfortable going big with JT here.

clear call

i call and FML when he turns over 55

Literally no hand makes any sense here, that beats us, randomly bluffs or value owns itself.

It screams nuts, but I just don't see how he plays any hands that are sets/straights like this

Sigh that we have to be good 53% or more of the time, but I Negreanu it in here.

We only have to be good 35% of the time

Oops typo

lol OK

;whistle;

is he good? if so, all in?

so many heros itt,

I think its a call.. don't see a reason to raise without really specific history..

Fold. It makes no sense for him to have it here but with the sizing he defo has it most of the time. Maybe a sigh call, but fold IMO... Raising here is terrible.

always calling

Can we at least try to think in ranges rather than just assumptions on betting patterns, especially as villain is good.

lol yeh what have you ever won deadman?

If we can't call then I guess we have one of the better hands to be bluffing with. In that case, from a theory perspective, maybe we should never ever fold this hand, either its good enough to call and if its not then its a hand we should be bluffing with. But imo having a leading range on the river pretty bad from villains perspective which would make less worried that I might not have a balanced river raising range cos his river donk is dumb anyway so I doubt we need to be that concerned about playing perfectly (from a theory perspective) in these deep river spots

(I'll reread tomorrow when soberer and edit / delete appropriately)

I think the whole point of Simons post is that this is exactly what we should not be doing in this spot. Thinking in terms of ranges this is a clear call but random live players don't have a range outside the nuts in this spot and I kind of agree. I'm fairly
Convinced this is fold even though I'm perfectly Capable of thinking in ranges where that applies.

Doesn't say anywhere that villain is good at all. It's a Vic cash reg.

What's it got todo with anything?  This is a hand discussion not a 'who has won the most live tournaments discussion'

Fwiw I often post on PHA saying 'fold, 'prolly jamming' etc but if i don't think after somebody posts something saying its awful without any form of justification isn't great.

Just because somebody is strong, evidently from body language, waft ever it doesn't mean that 1) he beats us or 2) e isn't capped.

In this spot particularly his slow played goo hands all beat us as I don't expect somebody to play j10o w/this sizing. However he is almost certainly capped, whilst we definitely are not. If we think he always folds aj vs a shove and folds the sets x > of the time so that we can work out roughly what kind of profit a jam would show. In reality it will probably end up being mathematically a fold, but if in poker ou always just assume ah he's strong il fold then you are losing a significant potential edge, which is why I brought it up.

In terms of blockers it's actually way better to have a10 here than kq even though kq is the hand we would potentially like to represent. In this case villain just should never have a c/c ott w/kqs and we block 10s.

Anyway it's very likely that fold will be best but in spots like this you should always at least think about the other options.

Gl in deauville chaps.

Squeeze pre imo being IP this deep with a hand this pretty

River is closer to a raise than a fold. Bravo that man if he c/c turn with KQ or a set

You are more likely to see some stupid play with JT/A5/A2

Such nonsense itt. This is live cash. He has KQ (calls a shove), a set (calls a shove 80-100% or the time) or a bluff (hardly ever but still no point in shoving). There's a small % time he has a worse two pair but will hardly ever call a shove with this. Shoving is the nut worst play by so so far.

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    62.264%     58.49%    03.77%                31            2.00   { JJ, 55, 22, AJs-ATs, A5s, A2s, KQs, JTs, AJo-ATo, A5o, A2o, KQo, JTo }
Hand 1:    37.736%     33.96%    03.77%                18            2.00   { AsTh }

Vs a incredibly stupid range imo

equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    41.176%     35.29%    05.88%                12            2.00   { AJs-ATs, A5s, A2s, JTs, AJo-ATo, A5o, A2o, KdQc, KhQc, KhQd, KsQc, KsQd, KsQh, JTo }
Hand 1:    58.824%     52.94%    05.88%                18            2.00   { AsTh }

Vs a more realistic range. I am even reluctant to give that many combos of KQ, but if I do im giving him some slow played 2pairs too

This is also not including ANY bluffs or silly hands like T5s

I'd give him 1 combo fo KQ because I'm generous.

He had KQ

thats why we give him the 1 combo.