Live cash: 2/5 at the Vic. River spot

[stato_1]

2/5 at the Vic. Been playing 6 handed since I started. Playing 2500.

Weakish young reg opens HJ to 20 playing 1.5k. Other reg flats CO from 2k. I peel AhTh from Btn. Blinds fold.

Flop j52 rainbow, 1 heart. OR checks. CO bets 35, I float.

Turn Ao, he now checks. I bet 50, he calls.

River T, he donks for 270. Thoughts?

Not really too interested in thoughts on play before river, since given the way the game has been and the way the guys have played so far I'm happy with the rest.

[rfgqqabc]

785/fold i guess. We cant ever be bluffing to a much smaller size. I don't really see a reason for us not to raise altough bizarre lines are normally stronger hands unless opp has shown tendency to bluff.

[TL900]

call, dont see any value in raising. We will have the best hand alot but don't think he ever donk/calls worse 2 pair. Dont think I can ever find a fold here either, pretty dirty if he had the TT

[DMorgan]

Your smallish turn betsize makes me want to raise because I think he'll have a tough time giving you credit for sets/AJ/34s. I think he gets curious and flicks in with JT often enough that raising is fine so I make it 825.

Obv don't know the gameflow in this spot but I'm not really in love with the idea of floating here. Obv AThh would be one of the first hands to go into a floating range on this board but I have a hard time believing that a weak reg leads much air here OOP to (I assume) and active BTN for only half pot. lol sample size etc but if we're still not fistpump raising on one of the nutsier runouts I'm not sure that this is a spot where I want to have a floating range.

[stato_1]

Understand exactly what ur saying dan, pretty happy floating vs this guy tho since I'm pretty happy hell pretty much turn his hand over on a lot of turns.

For me the decision seemed to comfortably between fold and call. Don't think people are paying enough attention to his sizing here? He's Jewish if this helps at all.

[stato_1]

And yeah the game is pretty much all regs, but they're generally pretty weak/tight. I'd say I've been comfortably the most active but definitely not way OOL.

[cambridgealex]

yeh its obv a call/fold decision on river- he's very polarised.

[Pugwashed]

Given it seems pretty hard for us to be bluffing and we can have 22/55/JJ/34s/AJ and maybe some combos of KQ I don't like raising. I think he can be value betting JT often enough here to call but his line seems pretty silly. Seems like if he's checking the turn then he should be checking the river almost always and if he is donking the river with sets / 2 pairs then when he checks you can feel pretty good about bluffing lots and value betting thin in these spots vs him and not worrying about him exploiting that when he sort of caps his checking range by donking most nutted stuff. Don't think I ever find a fold here.

[DMorgan]

As a default yeah I'd agree with what I assume you thought at that time which is that his sizing makes him pretty polarised. Definitely willing to accept that I'm not giving the guy enough credit by putting some 'omg I made 2 pair I bet lots' hands in his river potting range. If you definitely don't think that he does this with JT then I think it makes is a call.

I'd imagine that a middle of the road reg raises almost every better hand on the turn though? I mean you're 300bbs deep he's gotta get some money in the pot somehow and surely he must realise this? I see what you mean though that its plausible that he doesn't use this sizing for any worse value hands, but your line doesn't really look very nutted either so I wouldn't want to be too quick to completely eliminate some random air from his river range. Perhaps some mid pairs that led a dry board and decided to float the turn with a plan to smash any scary-ish rivers to get you off a weakish Jx? Dunno sounds kinda optimistic.

I dunno, I guess if you think that he's tricky enough with his flop leads for you to be able to float then he could plausibly be doing something silly on this river. That plus the fact that his line isn't really congruent with a nutted hand for this board makes me not want to fold.

[DMorgan]

Seems like if he's checking the turn then he should be checking the river almost always and if he is donking the river with sets / 2 pairs then when he checks you can feel pretty good about bluffing lots and value betting thin in these spots vs him and not worrying about him exploiting that when he sort of caps his checking range by donking most nutted stuff. Don't think I ever find a fold here.

Def agree with this

[Royal Flush]

Guy who was in seat 8 in yamaka?

[Whollyflush]

seems like a fold, was there a bdfd roll in? probably jj/aa moreso than 22/55

[SuuPRlim]

looks like a spot I'd call every time in game (I defo wouldnt raise), but would defo look for excuses to fold afterwards, I think I've just seen too many wierd things in these types of games to actually fold in game but in my experience people dont really bluff like this, speshly with big bets (that would fit into your "weakish player" description as well)

Either way seems very close so I'd call although could easily be convinced folding is better (Which I might already have been)

[sedds]

I don't find that people tend to bluff like this, plus its kinda hard to have a check call turn range that decides to take the consecutive action of lead bluffing. Everything seems consistent with JT, he would probably be more likely to bet himself or check raise with something strong on the turn (the paradox of the fact that he is a weak reg, but probably doesn't know this, and therefore doesn't know you don't have much incentive to call him down light when he does bomb/cr turn with sets?)
These kind of bets on the river i find tend to be hands that are strong but not comfortable check raising, JT would fit that category well also. I think if your hand looked stronger i would find a fold though, with flop call/small turn bet he is probably comfortable going big with JT here.

[Mondeoman]

clear call