blonde poker forum

Early on day two of 50euro french comp. Itm. Villain is a Winamax Pro, but no reads. Have him at 10/10/6 over 250 hands. He has 18bbs, we have like 24.

Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: youpyx (251576)
Seat 2: play for win (204540)
Seat 3: Sr Croissant (186324)
Seat 4: yack65 (58177)
Seat 5: L33T31 (422661)
Seat 6: sach155 (191489)
Seat 7: PkrRulzz (203078)
Seat 8: O RLY (140762)
Seat 9: tamir2000 (190938)
*** ANTE/BLINDS ***
sach155 posts ante 950
PkrRulzz posts ante 950
youpyx posts ante 950
play for win posts ante 950
Sr Croissant posts ante 950
yack65 posts ante 950
L33T31 posts ante 950
O RLY posts ante 950
tamir2000 posts ante 950
sach155 posts small blind 4000
PkrRulzz posts big blind 8000
Dealt to Sr Croissant [Qd As]
*** PRE-FLOP ***
O RLY raises 8000 to 16000
tamir2000 folds
youpyx folds
play for win folds
Sr Croissant?

Would check his UTG open stat in case he's a guy that likes to open UTG a lot but as standard/readless I think fold is best

U think 250hands is enough to make a read on his utg open stats? Will be like 35 instances...

No probably not, but just posting 'yeah fold, standard' seemed a bit...lame

How widely would you expect him/random/random €50 player to:

a) call a shove; or
b) shove over a 3bet?

Is part of your decision that he might be the (second) best player at the table and there are better spots? Are you too short for that to be a factor?

I think its Gaelle Baumaan or however u spell it. I don't know how good/bad she is at all so no reads on that front, however 10/10/6 is very tight and 250 hands is enough of a sample in mtt's to make a decentish judgement in a spot like this. Im pretty happy with folding, or 3b/folding not sure which one i prefer, actually think 3b/f is kinda sexy but I think I just fold as I think shes gona go with too much of her tight range (think 3b/c is pretty bad vs these stats in this spot)

I think the 2 questions you asked are gona be pretty much the same range for a "professional" I expect her opening range to be something like 99+ AQ+ and I expect her to go with nearly all of it vs any aggression.

In a soft frenchament even only being 20-25bb deep there will almost certainly be better spots than this one imo

Thanks very much

I think folding is acceptable in this spot. I do also like clicking it back.

How do people feel about calling IP? Obviously the shorty next to act can make this difficult for us by reopening the action.

I really hate any size 3b, don't hate calling but I generally just fold here.

folding seems fine.

also think 3b/fold could be fine if we think she'll peel some stuff like 99, tt - she prolly won't though :D

18bbs just feels waaaay too short to be 3b/folding anything.

We have 24bb. Villian has 18bb

what difference?

about 6? I think  ;D

Im more likely to get it in with 18bb than 24bb

effective is still 18bb though.

I think you can 3b/fold in the right spot, but this (probably) isn't it as she probably doesn't have a large enough peel range and just goes with her entire range.

Jam.

all in

Think you can find good reasons for everything except 3b/f where you will likely have too much equity vs the villains range after 3 betting to make it ok to fold.

Having short stacks behind has to be a good reason to peel with a hand as good as AQ too, when you jam they don't fold anything better (small pps aside) but when you flat they will (especially on French sites) find ways to put it in with worse.

I think my preference is peel > fold >3b/call > jam > 3b/fold hard for anything to be terrible here imo though

I feel they are just getting it in far to often if we 3b any size here. Prefer just mucking.

thoughts on peeling everyone?

maybe I put too many of these spots down to shove/fold.

agree 3b/folding is worst option, so much equity vs his 99-JJ range to do that.

only issue with peeling is the squeeze from short stack. gives opener easy over shove right? Unless you plan to call over shove?

Yes call, you give people a chance to get it in wider this way.

Hmm I personably would be shitting it with TT behind if I saw raise 18bb stack flat 23bb stack.

Deffo prefer just flatting here.  Dont know enough about the villian to get fancy and she's showing awful stats to do much against.

ps - she is pretty fit too

Yes, but you are not the average frenchman, who sees TJ and all this 'dead money' and can't help but sharpen his bayonet, don his uniform and start crying 'vive la revolution,' 'allez les balncs,' all the time cursing the odds and berating the foolish ros-bifs for not following their gut when they get that feeling.

pics of opponent? could be vital

This thread is bs.

Some of you are talking about the hand like its a short stacked cash game. It's a tourney ain't it? No one has mentioned how many are left in? How many paid? Ave stack? Itm? Big prize?

I would never flat but would shove/fold depending on above info.

Aah sod it. If I was actually playing online I would be pissed so ..... Aaaaaw Innnnnnnnn!

'Early on day two of 50euro french comp. Itm. Villain is a Winamax Pro, but no reads. Have him at 10/10/6 over 250 hands. He has 18bbs, we have like 24.' - from OP.


Ok so I'm a fish and haven't worked out how to multiple quote yet.

It's the Winamax main event, a super soft comp, just itm, let's say around 150 or so left with 25k euros for the winner. I'm guessing the average stack is around 30bb.

Those things can change things a lot but if OP hasn't provided that information you can generally assume it's not highly relevant to this spot and it's more about reads on ranges and playability etc

(http://www.winamax.fr/img/content/team/Gaelle_Baumann.jpg)

Would defo be trying to get it in.

Well in that case it's a flip. Which this spot is. It's the old lets "double up or go on the piss" play.

The beauty of this hand is all about how your tourney equity sways that flip to a sure fire decision. Either way.

I've noticed regs r/f off 15-18bb stacks far more recently, probably as their thinking is "I'm not supposed to be raise/folding off this stack so they will think that I am r/c so won't jam light" sort of thing.

However as gs08 so eloquently put it this is .fr so they are most likely too busy sharpening their bayonets to be paying too much attention to stack sizes

Needs more love

That's far from the best picture of her but she's still pretty hot!

Reminded me of this thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/61/mtt-community/do-you-call-here-523447/)

"If we get to play a multi way pot in position with some back door draws I am more inclined to continue here."

^^^nut post imo.

I think I'd flat although I don't hate a shove, I feel like many regulars open too light utg/purposely "bluff" here with the idea it gets more credit. Not as relevant here cos .fr, but I imagine she could well be lighter in this spot then standard, and flat with the idea of calling a shove from someone behind is perfectly fine. If she overshoves I guess she just have to fold? Thoughts here?

Best post was "although pretty weak, isn't limp/fold the standard line in a spot like this?" itt above.

yh alex pls dont 3b/fold.

Obviously this is worst hand we get in / best hand we fold.

Think  you should 3b/call vs opener, but by 3betting our hand instead of shoving, if someone wakes up with it behind and the Opener gets it in too, we can happily fold. This is something i dont think people think about enough in MTT's.

rly wana see someone argue the corner of 3b/folding here, more i think about it, more i REALLY hate it. Admittedly 99% of my lifetime volume has been on stars and naturally french sites will play somewhat different, but still,    3b/call > shove > flat > fold >                            3bet fold. With maybe folding and flatting reversed, would need to think about it a little more when its not 3am

Don't think people are arguing the 3bet fold scenario. I do like the idea of having flexibility of 3 betting and seeing if someone behind wakes up with a hand and original raiser gets it in too. Something Ive never really considered with shallow stacks but it makes sense. I'm guessing our 3bet has to be a click back tho right?

I it's potentially the best hand we fold as we want to have a 3b\call and 3b\fold range then surely with the additional blockers it would be fine.

IMO we should be a little more polarised so the hands we have in our 3b/fold range are the semibluffs; we clearly don't want to be 'raising for information', it would be fine if she had a raise-call range (that we beat) but I doubt she does 18bb deep, even IP.

You lost, bro.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=jLa4ylf5NPo

Hey Alex,

100% of my volume is on Winnamax and the notes and reads I have on this specific player would cause me to muck without even thinking about it.  She is super nitty and she is intelligent too.  She is not opening enough with hands in her range that give you equity compared to the average player in this event.  You will find many better spots as the structure of the event is far superior to any other weekly event on the site. 

Of course, this may all change if you can win an "I busted a pro" T-Shirt........

Cheers Jonny. I did lay it down in the end.

Hi, what do the 10/10/6 stats mean? Sorry to invade thread with a totally schoolboy question! :) 

10 for looks
10 for her body
6 cos she's French

Thats a world class response....

:D

but in seriousness, 10(VPIP, Voluntarily put in pot) 10 (Preflop raise) 6 (3bet) all are %'s

VPIP 10 - Voluntarily put in pot, the % of hands she willingly commits chips to a pot.
PFR 10 - Preflop raise, the % of hands she raises preflop. These two being the same shows us that she has never "just called preflop, every pot she's entered, she's raised, (over the sample of hands I have that is)
3bet 6 - % of hands that she 3bets.

These are the 3 most common stats to use.

Aha, thanks tl900

Thanks for the elaboration alex

Doing a call probably isn't the worst thing. 3/b folding isnt good.

The queen of nits. Great spite fold imo.

Also that 2p2 thread. Sublime.

Another A* reply from George too. All in all a golden thread.