blonde poker forum

Villain is a decent regular.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (6 handed)

MP ($646.80)
Hero (CO) ($427.25)
Button ($457)
SB ($494)
BB ($452.30)
UTG ($400)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Kd, Kc
2 folds, Hero bets $12, Button calls $12, 2 folds

Flop: ($30) 3s, 7d, 3c (2 players)
Hero bets $20, Button calls $20

Turn: ($70) 7h (2 players)
Hero bets $40, Button calls $40

River: ($150) 3d (2 players)
Hero bets $112.50, Button raises to $385 (All-In), Hero folds

without further reads I think its a clear fold

Never folding

is this really a hero fold?

we raised the cut off, he called the button, thus unlikely to have jj,qq.

he has every 76s combo, every 87s combo, some potential 97s combos and lets give him one a3s combo.

Can you really fnd enough bluffs to warrant a call here?

i actually like check shoving the river, but when we bet i just dont think he has any bluffs.

yeh was going to give him stick about that, then remember dubai telling me off for posting trivial hands!

Well I don't know if decent reg means nit or just good player.

But if he is a good player, what part of your range are you calling with when you bet? Basically nothing if you are folding KK, he has plenty fold equity and you aren't calling anything but 3x and 77 of which you probably have none

think there is also a discussion to be had about continuing with 7x on a paired board

77 too obv

Stu opens CO and we call 97s otb, flop comes 733r and we're sposed to fold?!

I response to if we fold here what are we calling with the other question is how ofteen he is bluffing, obviously the less he is bluffing thn the less calls we need to make, i'd suggest he's bluffing very very infrequently as we do have 7's in our range and even a couple of combo's of 3.

so we are never prepared to lose 100bbs on a middling paired board OOP is what your saying?

what if it comes 2 5 9 5 Q? To the same action?

also when you bet bet bet that board you are also saying you are bet folding 100% of the time, at which point villain jamming is going to be profitable for all the times you have a 7

Depends how decent he actually is. I mean if we know he can value jam wider than 3x and 7x with 88-QQ (because our range contains way more value bets than just 3x 7x combos as well as a certain % of bluffs on a steal) then it becomes closer to a snap than a sigh fold.

he doest think were always bet foldung, he will expect us to call super wide.

nbodoy is ever ever jamming jj here

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he is a competent reg and he doesn't think you are bet folding? er wut?

So we have raised pre and flopped it all, everytime? Pretty sure he can be almost certain we are bet folding, if he has any inclination we are folding AA/KK (with history)

Why cant he have QQ here? and it really doesn't matter whether he thinks he is value jamming or bluffing does it?

What does Hero do with JJ here (every street)?

It is so exploitable to b/f river (or should I say bet bet bet/fold) here because we don't have 7's enough of the time (ie is b, b, b, is our default line)

he doesnt expect us to fold a lot of the time on this river, the only hands he expects us to fold are probably chops. Yes we may fold 88 and 99 but our perceived range on this board is strong and he will expect our perceived range to generally b-call and the hands he folds out will generally be chops.

He definitely wont have an inclination we are folding kk-aa.

I dont think mid stakes regs are jamming QQ on the river. I also think they are 3betting close to 100% of the time with QQ so we can definitely discount it from his range.

We play JJ the same as JJ is exactly the same hand as AA otr as we expect him to 3bet qq and kk.

We have quite a few 7x combos and IMO certainly enough for us to fold kk otr.

 7s 5s
 7s 6s
 8s 7s
 9s 7s

 7c 5c
 7c 6c
 8c 7c
 9c 7c

 7c 7s

 Ac 7c
 Aspades 7s

 Ks 7s
 Kc 7c

 Ahrt 3h

Thats 14 combos!

How is that what I'm saying? I'm saying that I would generically think that his bluffing range is EXTREMELY thin on the river, basically 45/56 or 88/99 he's turning into a bluff or maybe AQ. So I don't think we need a calling range beyond 7x and 3x and we can fold everything else, We have just enough 7's and 3's in our range to build a calling range that is sufficient, in this spot.

If however we believe (as you must do) that he is bluffing with a much higher frequency, or in fact raising worse for value then we need to start calling a little wider, obviously AA, KK and QQ are the natural hands to start with.

For me personally, if we don't know I would go with my assumptions here because (and note I don't and have never played mid-stakes NL online) I would expect that to be the standard for the population at this level. The only description we have is "competant reg"

There will be lots of spots with overpairs on middly paired boards where we'd wanna commit 100 big blinds, saying that because we had one spot on one type of board texture where we had close ish to the top of our range and folded that we must now fold on all textures of this type in the future to big bets is a little silly.

I just think you are both assigning villain no where near enough of a bluffing range. He can easily chose to float a flop with a tonne of his peel range. He essentially turns gin if he is going to bluff, and I agree he has a tonne more 7s than we do, but that's the point where he wins the hand, which makes bet bet bet/fold OOP absolute folley.

Yeah Dave and Pleno don't know what they're talking about. Everyone should listen to Master Outragous

how is the turn gin when he floats? its one of the worst cards when we decide to ebt twice to come for his floating range.

He actually has less 7x than we do as hes probably folding a7-k7 pre flop imo. Probably folding 75 too.

Feel free to point out where I said they were wrong, its PHA, I find the bet bet bet/fold line very interesting and think its very exploitable. I choosing to run my thoughts against 2 good players. Id be happy for them to give me absolute cast iron certainty that it is absolutely the best thing to do.

Not what you said earlier ITT

It's not exploitable at all. Think very few players- competent or bad or going to try and bluff shove us on the river cos most players probably click the call button with kings

I definitely have more 7s and 4s in my range than villain.

One issue that I had in-game was that the SB was a very weak player, and thus I was concerned villain might have been good enough to know to flat all his big pairs in order to ensure that the SB sees the flop. I was meaning to mention this in the original HH post, but forgot to do so. But then again, if villain can have QQ here then he can also have AA right? And he is probably not jamming QQ anyway.

Looking back it seems like a really easy fold (and yes, definitely not a hero fold), but it always seems more difficult in-game.

where did i say this sorry? i may have, just cant find it.

turn is much more interesting. having a turn betting range seems kinda bad? thoughts badger?

also this is so player dependant, some (the toughest) guys will look at 88 and turn it into a bluff happily (esp if you are barreling this turn a high frequency) here; others (80%+) just have it.

-1 this is nut spot to flat prems, we dont even know who blinds are? hb might fold to a tonne of 3bets, making flatting all our good hands best. Would def not be making such big assumptions about his range.

the 400 rush games are the most spewiest game on the net, people are absolutely barmy there, like crazy crazy games

Exactly the point I'm making

Now that is the sort of point I really like!

Yes I think you may very well be right.

I suspect my thought process in game was about as deep as the following, "I think he has an overpair, so I will bet for value".

Well we are essentially agreeing on the hand then if the only thing we disagree on is his bluffing range, for me personally I don't think we can beat ANY value bets, and I don't think he is bluffing with a frequency high enough to make calling KK and profitable call. If you think he is bluffing more often, and he every once in a wihle have a worse hand for value, then you absolutley should call KK here.

There isn't really anything that's been posted or information that's been given to make me reconsider my assumption, it's a totally broad assumption made with limited information, so could well be totally wrong, but i think that would be more standard, we need people to show us they are capable of things before swerving from the "default" assumptions for spots like this. If you think that the "stnd" 400nl Rush reg is turning 88 into bluffs here or float float jamming 89s or something, or shipping TT for value then I'd be EXTREMELY surprised if that were true, but I never played these games, so couldn't comment with any intelligence.

One thing I will say though, if you think the reason that he will be bluffing here is because we folded KK to him, so he feels like he has free reign to shove hos whole range profitably then you're wrong, even if we're folding too tight were not "exploitable" and he does not have a profitable jam with his entire range, simply because our range that gets to the river is strong enough.

The point I wanted to get to was that bet bet bet/fold is bad on these boards, and from my experience if rush type poker is that this play is very exploitable, especially on paired boards and moreso on double paired boards. Alex got us there then the discussion stopped

That might be the case, in which case its the turn that is the street we should question, personally I don't see why it's a bad turn bet and I have no idea why bet/bet/bet/fold is exploitable if your ranges are correct, providing you don't barrell the turn too much and have a 3barrell "bluffing" range then its going to be ok surely - might not be the best but i dont get how it's bad.

You're defo mis-using the phrase exploitable though, just because someone can make a vacuum play that will make you fold a better hand doesn't mean the play was exploitable.

What are your stats? How many hands do you have with him?