blonde poker forum

6max 100euro comp, this is day 2, in the money.

Winamax Poker - Tournament "W SERIES Event 28 - Jour 2" buyIn: Qualified only level: 15 - HandId: #241224196774952994-89-1379273048 - Holdem no limit (500/2000/4000) - 2013/09/15 19:24:08 UTC
Table: 'W SERIES Event 28 - Jour 2(56164385)#0033' 6-max (real money) Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: marco7526 (112507)
Seat 2: Sr Croissant (209192)
Seat 3: MacBouus (285342)
Seat 4: IceStream (600421)
Seat 5: beb123 (352479)
Seat 6: mimi5970 (312710)
*** ANTE/BLINDS ***
Sr Croissant posts ante 500
MacBouus posts ante 500
marco7526 posts ante 500
IceStream posts ante 500
beb123 posts ante 500
mimi5970 posts ante 500
Sr Croissant posts small blind 2000
MacBouus posts big blind 4000
Dealt to Sr Croissant [Jc Jh]
*** PRE-FLOP ***
IceStream raises 4000 to 8000
beb123 calls 8000
mimi5970 raises 16000 to 24000
marco7526 folds
Sr Croissant ?

Ice Stream is a reg, 29/23/11 over 360 hands, table chip leader.
Beb123 is a massive whale, 59/40/17, not folding preflop once he's put chips in.
Mimi is unknown 35/18/16 over the 80 hands he's been here.

I've been playing 24/18/10 at this table (127 hands). I'm in small blind with 52bbs.

Suspect Mimi to be aware that Beb123 isn't folding so is likely to be massively value heavy, but possibly depolarised, so hands like 99, AT, KQ could be in his range, as well as all the premiums. Can't infer much from his sizing, seems good/ standard in position.

Will look hella strong from me to cold 4, so can't imagine I'm in good shape if I get 5bet by Ice Stream or Mimi.

What should we do?

Im going broke, waiting for someone to convince me something else is better though.

Two jacks. A jack AND ANOTHER JACK!

What worries you about this? That it might not look like a re-squeeze so you miss value from TT? That the 3bet isn't a squeeze very often and you will too frequently be behind? That it might go multiway?

Am interested, as this looks like a standard spot to me for a 4bet.

«Quel idiot!», they cry, as he deigns to enter another conversation out of his depth...

48884

How often would you normally put 50bb in with JJ? Is that an easy question to answer?

You are likely to get respect for a cold 4 bet but that will only be for what 55k? Only a quarter of your stack in the middle, so you can fold if you decide there's a good reason to (assume this will be original raiser more than the squeezer?)

I'm very inexperienced online, so bear with me :)

My worry Tal is what happens when I 4bet. 95% of the time it'll be one of two things.

Everyone folds - OK we've won the pot, not a bad outcome

Somebody 5bets/sets us in- We have 52 big blinds, lots of chips, and we will be getting it against a very strong range. I'd be happier doing this if the whale wasn't in the middle - since this makes the initial 3bet very likely to be a good hand, rather than a squeeze play with a weak hand. If the initial raiser 5bets, then we're up against an even stronger range, since he has to worry about both of us.

Id estimate the squeezer not getting in TT here, and probably not AQ, so we're vs JJ+ and AK, which isn't great for us.

I don't believe we'd ever get our 4bet just called by either player, so esentially we're never seeing a flop, it's going in pre or it isn't.

So Tal, you're saying we should 4b and then fold to a 5bet? OK, so would you do this with QJ? Why not if you're doing it with JJ? Since we're never seeing a flop (ie we're either getting 5bet or folds). QJ would actually be a better hand to 4b fold since we block QQ, JJ and AQ :D

Assuming we play a flop 0% of the time, I believe if we're not 4b/folding QJ, then we shouldn't be 4b folding JJ.

And I don't think it's a good spot to 4b bluff, since the 3bettors range is less bluff heavy, and the original raiser has opened utg.

In this particular spot, both guys in the hand are insanely aggro and 24/18/10 isn't messing about either.  So theres a good chance that we can get eye'd with by worse.  Having just taken note of the stack sizes properly however, there's a chance I make it smaller, around 44k to give the illusion of fold equity.  Given how aggressive the table seems to be, I certainly think OR can think were messing about and put it in our eye with worse.

Against a guy playing redic tight, I would never be getting in JJ pre for 50bb+.

Disagree about the guys being insanely aggro. Mimi's (3bettor) stats are actually more loose fishy than aggro (36/18). This is 6max remember, 18% pfr isn't aggro at all. Yeh his 3bet is high, but it's a tiny sample really.

Can't see either eye balling TT, esp not the OR.

Ok. Maybe I should think about this another way. Holmes says remove all logical possibilities and whatever remains, however illogical, must be the truth.

The alternatives are:

- fold what is likely for now the best hand (can't bring myself to do that on these facts)
- overcall with an initial raiser behind (even if you try something funky because of stack sizes like jamming if OR 4bets and the 3bettor folds but that looks like you're getting it in behind a lot of the time, I can't see this being profitable)
- jam 50bb (only getting called by a better hand and possibly not picking up the pot free as often as you need)

Therefore I raise.

All we need to know is whether OR and 3bettor are keen, so we needn't risk too many chips finding out. As you say, hurdle one is OR. If they fold, we don't mind a call from one of the other two. More likely, OR repops and we think we are behind a good chunk of the time, so the frequent fold is easy.

I think I fold more than I should admit, here. To a 5bet shove, that is.

Thanks for your answer. I think about these hands in a completely amateurish different way.

Yeh failed to make the connection between stats and 6 max.  Still don't see a way I'm finding the fold button here.  I'm always amazed by what people will show up with in some spots.

I'm not sure about the 3 ballers range been less bluff heavy, stats (granted small sample), look they certainly know how to 3b and this looks like a great squeeze spot to me.

Flattings.

Let there be spew

I fold these spots. Don't want to,wager it all the pot is already inflated to do a larger 3bet size thus probably won't be called v wide pre flop and not a hand I want to bluff with.

Meh fold

The reason I flat, is to give them the opportunity to make me fold post flop. Let them barrel.

This is assuming that the most likely scenario happens, ie that OR utg folds, and the Whale comes along. The situation rarely deviates from this unless ice stream has woken up with a top 2% hand.

If the hand unravels as expected then we check virtually every flop, giving us a multitude of options with the strongest perceived range and a decent spr.

We don't really want to be barreled though

Vs a weak range and a possibly strong yet probably weak range, I want to be barrelled into with the 4th best starting hand in nlhe.

Imo on these French sites there's way more value in bluff catching vs non regs than there is in value towning them. Even more so with 6m.

I do a fold

Whatever happens you can't cold peel.

You have to have a feel of the table at this point. If the tourney is really soft (which it will be) it will give you an argument for folding here, which I probably do, and when I do I tell nobody.

can we not just go all in?

surely this

Well surely a raise/call is going to be better than cramming?

Not only do we get times where we induce but if two go all in we can fold v easily.

If a relative unknown cold peels your button 3b squeeze from the small blind, and you end up seeing a flop 3 way, how do you feel? Ar you comfortable with this situation 50bb effective? What do you think of this person?

What are you going to end up doing on a 9 high rainbow flop when your holding a typical regs 3b button squueze range?

It's difficult for this to not go in, it's a good spot for sure. The reason why I don't like cold peeling is because it's going to be 4 way a lot and you are OOP not having scooby doo what is going on. There aren't many good flops for you.

I really like clicking it because I'm folding to UTG open as he has to get it in really tight. If you run the numbers you are going to be showing a good profit for sure if you click get it in.

Fold.

I don't think anyone can say fold without doing the math breakdown when it's not a clear fold. It's going to be a soft tourney with a decent structure so you probably want to dodge this if it's a small edge in getting it in.

Without working out numbers I would say clicking and getting it in is somewhere between good and really good.

Well surely a raise/call is going to be better than cramming?

Not only do we get times where we induce but if two go all in we can fold v easily.

This. Shoving seems too much of a gamble in a spot where either/both opponents could have the goods. I don't see why a strong player on a perceived weak table would want to put in it when we have 50bb's and loads of play left? If we get called we're probs flipping/against overpairs, just seems a big risk for a small pot relative to our stack size. Granted, it takes any 5-bet bluffs out of our opponents play, but I don't think the pot-stack ratio justifies the play.

If he's never bluffing and his range is TT+AKo+ and the OR folds a lot then if you run the numbers it's probably a break even jam (43% equity against those hands). Include some bluffs in his range and it quickly becomes very profitable. Let's not forget that the 3better probably isn't going to get it in correctly (be too tight or too loose).

Like TL900 said, prove me wrong and I can find a fold.

I can't prove you wrong, but I can suggest that it's very unlikely that the 3better is going broke with TT to our cold 4bet. I would say it's QQ+ and AK that he goes with, so we'll be about 36% vs his range if we get it in. Of course we win some chips when everyone folds which is good, so overall getting it in might be a profitable play chipEV wise, especially if you allow for the possibility he does go broke with TT and AQ some % of the time.

But there's no way I'm risking 50bbs to make 1-2bbs in EV at this stage in a vsoft 100e comp with 40k ftw and less than 100 people left.

Alright then. Let's give the guy a 3bet of 10% meaning he's folding to your 4bet 70% of the time as QQ+ AK+ is 3% of range.

It's kinda hard to calculate exactly what the OR is going to get it in with, possibly AKs QQ+ so you have to take this into account but you have to also take into account that the 3better 5bet folds. I think these two scenarios kind of equal each other out. They are both pretty rare scenarios though.

48k dead in the middle, you win that 70% of the time and the other 30% of the time you get it in for 36.6% equity to win 468k which averages as -39k each time.


Using those numbers, I work out that each time this hand plays out as above you will make 22k(5.5bb) in chips. That's quite a large edge to miss out on and I think we've been on the generous side for this too because you don't lose much when the OR has it (we 4bet click fold) and also the guy that 3bets can peel with worse hands too (that will shower a much much greater profit if he does so). You can of course play with some figures here and there like fiddling his 3bet% range and GII range but all in all, this is a fairly close analysis and given people are probably bad on this site they are likely to do things that make the hand more profitable for you.

I think at the time I can't blame you for folding, it does seem a close spot at first glance, but given the chance to number crunch this is an absolutely clear cut GII.

If those numbers were accurate then we have a super profitable 4b/fold with 72o. There's no way he's folding 70% to a 3bet.

He's not 3betting 10% in this spot (hands like K9s and QJ), it's probably more like 6-7% (AJs+, 99+ KQ). And getting in QQ+ and AK is about half of that range, so I think the numbers are more like this:

50.5k in the pot (think you missed antes)

50% of the time he folds (99/TT, AJ, KQ and AQ) = + 50.5k

50% of the time he jams (QQ+ and AK), we call and are 36% vs his range.
     so 18% of the time we double up and profit 233k (our 209 doubled, plus the 8+8+ bb and antes (4+4.5)
     and 32% of the time we bust and lose 207k

so (0.5*50.5)+(0.18*233)-(0.32*207)=0.95k or 950chips or two antes.

I've ignored the OR as like you said, the times we get our 4bet peeled may well cancel out the times OR has QQ+ AK and gets it in.

AJs+ 99+ KQ+ is 7% of a range so you are saying that he is never 3 bet bluffing? Not even 3% of the time!?!?!?

His stats are already showing a 3bet of 16% over 80 hands.

And by the way, my numbers are lenient in YOUR favour, as plenty of players wouldnt 3bet 99 or KQ here so making him even less likely to fold to a 4bet!

As i said in OP, with the whale in the pot who isn't folding, he likely has no bluffs and only strong hands when he 3bets here.

Alright if he's never 3bet bluffing and only 3betting an extra strong range and only getting it in with QQ+ it's a fold.

I'm folding and pretty happy about it. Can't really prove it just my instinct tells me that its good here.

Can you understand why I find folding to a 3bet with JJ hard to accept?

Not considered this since Cloutier and McAvoy told me I should.

Very interesting tho.

In a spot deep in a Winamax comp i'm folding here. I don't think it's going to be massively better folding than 4b/calling, but pretty happy to preserve stack and not take the higher variance line when it's possibly not even +cEV. Think anything other than these two options is pretty bad, jamming just eliminates getting it in vs any bluffs/the bottom part of his value range potentially and is fairly face-up... as is cold-calling, which is going to be pretty bad here imo.

That is a generic 7% range.

AsAh   AsAd   AsAc   AhAd
AhAc   AdAc   AsKs   AsKh
AsKd   AsKc   AhKs   AdKs
AcKs   AhKh   AhKd   AhKc
AdKh   AcKh   AdKd   AdKc
AcKd   AcKc   AsQs   AsQh
AsQd   AsQc   AhQs   AdQs
AcQs   AhQh   AhQd   AhQc
AdQh   AcQh   AdQd   AdQc
AcQd   AcQc   AsJs   AhJh
AdJd   AcJc   AsTs   AhTh
AdTd   AcTc   KsKh   KsKd
KsKc   KhKd   KhKc   KdKc
KsQs   KhQh   KdQd   KcQc
QsQh   QsQd   QsQc   QhQd
QhQc   QdQc   JsJh   JsJd
JsJc   JhJd   JhJc   JdJc
TsTh   TsTd   TsTc   ThTd
ThTc   TdTc   9s9h   9s9d
9s9c   9h9d   9h9c   9d9c
8s8h   8s8d   8s8c   8h8d
8h8c   8d8c      

If he has exactly that range, and calls AK, QQ+ then you make 7406 chips (1.8515 bb)

(http://i933.photobucket.com/albums/ad171/lildavefish/shove1_zps1d7ad771.png)

Problem with this calculation is that the range is prolly quite off, I think he'll trap pretty much 0% but I think given the player he is squeezing and tendency to be very sticky preflop I think his range will look a bit different. I'd imagine he'd take out 88 and 99 and then replace then with some 3b/folds that are essentially for value against the middle player (KJ/KT/QJs) and throw an "airball" in with the odd suited wheel ace.

(http://i933.photobucket.com/albums/ad171/lildavefish/shove2_zps849302d5.png)

I don't really know tournaments I'm just going of my instinct that he's way more likely to 3bet KJs vs this middle guy than 88, but I might be wrong, this also might be a terrible terrible spot to squeeze A3s and he;d never do it, just trying to mix the argument up...There is also his calling range, again I have no idea but it's certainly no tighter than you predict, the number change a little with a slight adjustment to his calling range to stick a couple of TT and AQ combo's in. Maybe the way to randomise AQ woldbe to suggest he calls with half his AQs combosIDK

(http://i933.photobucket.com/albums/ad171/lildavefish/shove3_zps91961b06.png)

Either way, if it's a soft comp and you are very unsure on the fundamentals of this spots which is - how wide he'll squeeze for "value" vs the middle player, and exactly how tight he'll call off then you seem way better just folding.

If you're unsure obviously fold, but after 3 pages of discussion and number crunching it's obvious on average that you make a ton of chips by getting it in (clicking it back, not jamming). The argument that the player is never 3betting light isn't a good one because if I am in that seat with KJs I am loving life and 3betting. If the OR folds and the fish calls it's time to get jiggy.

fyp

That coupled with regs who play and crush these games saying it's a fold, I'm gonna go with

(http://i1210.photobucket.com/albums/cc416/cambridgealex/thumbsdown_zps5b14f8a6.gif) (http://s1210.photobucket.com/user/cambridgealex/media/thumbsdown_zps5b14f8a6.gif.html)

I put KJ KTs into the last range i made for him, as long as some suited Wheel aces. If you can get to 6bb profit then it's obviously a no brainer, 1bb is a lot different, that's the debate innit :P

Not cool.

FYP

Alex I was just trying to help, when I was looking at 3bet ranges you said that you were putting it in my favour like this is some contest? I put the numbers in, put the best possible estimation of 3bet stats and a ( mutually agreeable) calling range and the numbers show it's a clear cut call.

The reason it's not a clear call because it's a confusing one, there is a lot of number crunching to do here because of the nature of the hand and the fact it's not something that comes up very often.

It's quite a big edge to miss out on here and if you had the opportunity to take 20 minutes on making a decision in poker you would go with this. I don't blame anyone for folding here, in fact I imagine if you give me 20 seconds to act here I'd fold because I know I wouldn't be able to be sure of my decision.

You folded, well done, so would most people here after a simple conclusion but it was the wrong play. That's me done in this thread, I'm not posting in any more of your strategy threads if you are going to reply with a "FYP" and a gladiator gif.

yeh found tht pretty weird when dan had invested q abit of time trying to help itt

Does any one think that the fact that this situation does not come up very often with 50 bb itm of a major just simply make this a clear fold? I do. Does the crunching numbers work out your average stake in tourneys and know this is high?

Surely you will encounter this spot so rarely that you are leaving yourself wide open to massive variance when it does happen?

I think it one of those fold and tell no one hands.

Well I enjoyed reading this post, quite an in depth discussion over what the correct decision is/was/could have been.

yeah i intially posted fold with little study or depth to my post, dan changed tht for me imo.

I'll explain why I was irritated enough to respond in that manner.

You'd crunched some numbers and come up with a conclusion that it was a clear call/jam/GII whatever.

I'd crunched some different numbers, with a different range (including no 3bet bluffs) and explained my reasons for doing so in a long post. My numbers had shown it was 0 ev to get it in (well + 1 ante or something).

Without considering this, you simply said "after 3 pages of number crunching it's obvious that you make a ton of chips by getting it in", when I'd concluded near enough the exact opposite. Which I found immensely dismissive of what I'd tried to communicate, as well as quite obnoxious.  Not to mention ignoring the numerous posters who'd said fold.

Given the debate, it was anything but obvious.

I apologise for the cutting response though, which was clearly very non-constructive and rude. I don't post like that often at all.

4b gii

ainec


 ;whistle;

Fold pre . Next hand pls