Bloody Jacks

[lucky_scrote]

AJs+ 99+ KQ+ is 7% of a range so you are saying that he is never 3 bet bluffing? Not even 3% of the time!?!?!?

His stats are already showing a 3bet of 16% over 80 hands.

[cambridgealex]

And by the way, my numbers are lenient in YOUR favour, as plenty of players wouldnt 3bet 99 or KQ here so making him even less likely to fold to a 4bet!

As i said in OP, with the whale in the pot who isn't folding, he likely has no bluffs and only strong hands when he 3bets here.

[lucky_scrote]

Alright if he's never 3bet bluffing and only 3betting an extra strong range and only getting it in with QQ+ it's a fold.

[stato_1]

I'm folding and pretty happy about it. Can't really prove it just my instinct tells me that its good here.

[Tal]

Can you understand why I find folding to a 3bet with JJ hard to accept?

Not considered this since Cloutier and McAvoy told me I should.

Very interesting tho.

[WotRTheChances]

In a spot deep in a Winamax comp i'm folding here. I don't think it's going to be massively better folding than 4b/calling, but pretty happy to preserve stack and not take the higher variance line when it's possibly not even +cEV. Think anything other than these two options is pretty bad, jamming just eliminates getting it in vs any bluffs/the bottom part of his value range potentially and is fairly face-up... as is cold-calling, which is going to be pretty bad here imo.

[SuuPRlim]

That is a generic 7% range.

AsAh   AsAd   AsAc   AhAd
AhAc   AdAc   AsKs   AsKh
AsKd   AsKc   AhKs   AdKs
AcKs   AhKh   AhKd   AhKc
AdKh   AcKh   AdKd   AdKc
AcKd   AcKc   AsQs   AsQh
AsQd   AsQc   AhQs   AdQs
AcQs   AhQh   AhQd   AhQc
AdQh   AcQh   AdQd   AdQc
AcQd   AcQc   AsJs   AhJh
AdJd   AcJc   AsTs   AhTh
AdTd   AcTc   KsKh   KsKd
KsKc   KhKd   KhKc   KdKc
KsQs   KhQh   KdQd   KcQc
QsQh   QsQd   QsQc   QhQd
QhQc   QdQc   JsJh   JsJd
JsJc   JhJd   JhJc   JdJc
TsTh   TsTd   TsTc   ThTd
ThTc   TdTc   9s9h   9s9d
9s9c   9h9d   9h9c   9d9c
8s8h   8s8d   8s8c   8h8d
8h8c   8d8c      

If he has exactly that range, and calls AK, QQ+ then you make 7406 chips (1.8515 bb)

Click to see full-size image.

Problem with this calculation is that the range is prolly quite off, I think he'll trap pretty much 0% but I think given the player he is squeezing and tendency to be very sticky preflop I think his range will look a bit different. I'd imagine he'd take out 88 and 99 and then replace then with some 3b/folds that are essentially for value against the middle player (KJ/KT/QJs) and throw an "airball" in with the odd suited wheel ace.

Click to see full-size image.

I don't really know tournaments I'm just going of my instinct that he's way more likely to 3bet KJs vs this middle guy than 88, but I might be wrong, this also might be a terrible terrible spot to squeeze A3s and he;d never do it, just trying to mix the argument up...There is also his calling range, again I have no idea but it's certainly no tighter than you predict, the number change a little with a slight adjustment to his calling range to stick a couple of TT and AQ combo's in. Maybe the way to randomise AQ woldbe to suggest he calls with half his AQs combosIDK

Click to see full-size image.

Either way, if it's a soft comp and you are very unsure on the fundamentals of this spots which is - how wide he'll squeeze for "value" vs the middle player, and exactly how tight he'll call off then you seem way better just folding.

[lucky_scrote]

Either way, if it's a soft comp and you are very unsure on the fundamentals of this spots which is - how wide he'll squeeze for "value" vs the middle player, and exactly how tight he'll call off then you seem way better just folding.

If you're unsure obviously fold, but after 3 pages of discussion and number crunching it's obvious on average that you make a ton of chips by getting it in (clicking it back, not jamming). The argument that the player is never 3betting light isn't a good one because if I am in that seat with KJs I am loving life and 3betting. If the OR folds and the fish calls it's time to get jiggy.

[cambridgealex]

Either way, if it's a soft comp and you are very unsure on the fundamentals of this spots which is - how wide he'll squeeze for "value" vs the middle player, and exactly how tight he'll call off then you seem way better just folding.

If you're unsure obviously fold, but after 3 pages of discussion and number crunching it's obvious on average that you make almost no chips whatsoever chips by getting it in (clicking it back, not jamming). The argument that the player is never 3betting light isn't a good one because if I am in that seat with KJs I am loving life and 3betting. If the OR folds and the fish calls it's time to get jiggy.

fyp

That coupled with regs who play and crush these games saying it's a fold, I'm gonna go with

[SuuPRlim]

Either way, if it's a soft comp and you are very unsure on the fundamentals of this spots which is - how wide he'll squeeze for "value" vs the middle player, and exactly how tight he'll call off then you seem way better just folding.

If you're unsure obviously fold, but after 3 pages of discussion and number crunching it's obvious on average that you make a ton of chips by getting it in (clicking it back, not jamming). The argument that the player is never 3betting light isn't a good one because if I am in that seat with KJs I am loving life and 3betting. If the OR folds and the fish calls it's time to get jiggy.

I put KJ KTs into the last range i made for him, as long as some suited Wheel aces. If you can get to 6bb profit then it's obviously a no brainer, 1bb is a lot different, that's the debate innit

[MC]

If you're unsure obviously fold, but after 3 pages of discussion and number crunching it's obvious on average that you make almost no chips whatsoever chips by getting it in (clicking it back, not jamming). The argument that the player is never 3betting light isn't a good one because if I am in that seat with KJs I am loving life and 3betting. If the OR folds and the fish calls it's time to get jiggy.

fyp

That coupled with regs who play and crush these games saying it's a fold, I'm gonna go with

Not cool.

[s4ooter]

If you're unsure obviously fold, but after 3 pages of discussion and number crunching it's obvious on average that you make almost no chips whatsoever chips by getting it in (clicking it back, not jamming). The argument that the player is never 3betting light isn't a good one because if I am in that seat with KJs I am loving life and 3betting. If the OR folds and the fish calls it's time to get jiggy.

fyp

That coupled with regs who play and crush these games saying it's a fold, I'm gonna go with

VERY cool.

FYP

[lucky_scrote]

Alex I was just trying to help, when I was looking at 3bet ranges you said that you were putting it in my favour like this is some contest? I put the numbers in, put the best possible estimation of 3bet stats and a ( mutually agreeable) calling range and the numbers show it's a clear cut call.

The reason it's not a clear call because it's a confusing one, there is a lot of number crunching to do here because of the nature of the hand and the fact it's not something that comes up very often.

It's quite a big edge to miss out on here and if you had the opportunity to take 20 minutes on making a decision in poker you would go with this. I don't blame anyone for folding here, in fact I imagine if you give me 20 seconds to act here I'd fold because I know I wouldn't be able to be sure of my decision.

You folded, well done, so would most people here after a simple conclusion but it was the wrong play. That's me done in this thread, I'm not posting in any more of your strategy threads if you are going to reply with a "FYP" and a gladiator gif.

[pleno1]

yeh found tht pretty weird when dan had invested q abit of time trying to help itt

[gouty]

Alex I was just trying to help, when I was looking at 3bet ranges you said that you were putting it in my favour like this is some contest? I put the numbers in, put the best possible estimation of 3bet stats and a ( mutually agreeable) calling range and the numbers show it's a clear cut call.

The reason it's not a clear call because it's a confusing one, there is a lot of number crunching to do here because of the nature of the hand and the fact it's not something that comes up very often.

It's quite a big edge to miss out on here and if you had the opportunity to take 20 minutes on making a decision in poker you would go with this. I don't blame anyone for folding here, in fact I imagine if you give me 20 seconds to act here I'd fold because I know I wouldn't be able to be sure of my decision.

You folded, well done, so would most people here after a simple conclusion but it was the wrong play. That's me done in this thread, I'm not posting in any more of your strategy threads if you are going to reply with a "FYP" and a gladiator gif.

Does any one think that the fact that this situation does not come up very often with 50 bb itm of a major just simply make this a clear fold? I do. Does the crunching numbers work out your average stake in tourneys and know this is high?

Surely you will encounter this spot so rarely that you are leaving yourself wide open to massive variance when it does happen?

I think it one of those fold and tell no one hands.