blonde poker forum

Bit of an ICM whale so thought i'd post this. Structure is as follows:

1st - $27.8k
2nd - $20.7k
3rd - $14.7k
4th - $10.1k
5th - $7.5k

No Limit Hold'em Tournament T75,000/T150,000
Buy-in: $50+$5 USD Hold'em No Limit
PokerStars
5 players
Formatted by pokercopilot.com - Mac OS X hand history analysis and tracking

Stacks:
UTG - UTG (T873,850)
CO - CO (T2,235,054)
BTN - BTN (T1,303,066)
SB - SB (T5,087,772)
BB - Hero (T1,123,258)

Preflop: (T318,750, 5 players) Hero is BB with Qh Js
3 folds, SB raises to T5,069,022 (all-in), Hero ?

No way its as tight as JJandelis posted.

I think we call like 55+A9+ and KQ.

Folds, yeah definitely not as tight as JJ, like rfgqqabc's range.

Not run any numbers but I'd venture that this is very close to 0EV call even if we know he's shoving any 2

Feel like this is ridiculously tight, way too much for my liking. Prolly getting it in here with like an ever so slightly wider range than picken, but not very much, maybe like A5ss, A8os, KJ, 55, maybe QJss

Who is SB? If he's a winning turbo player here he should have any two cards. I'd jam 23o here.

I think it's quite close tbh, you're 4/5 but 5th is only slightly shorter than you.

I think my range is probably too tight too fwiw.

i wanna call.

I just ran ICMIZER, had to put all the numbers in manually (thanks op!)

(24.7%) 55+,A2s+,A5o+,K7s+,K9o+,Q9s+,QTo+,JTs

It shows QJo as making you $482 on the call and QTo/A2s/JTs are close to break even calls. Even though 55 is at the bottom of your calling range, it still makes you $1500 on the call.

I think other factors are whether the sb is jamming ATC. He should, he makes a lot of chips doing so and even good turbo players don't call correctly. Pretty hard to make good decisions here all the time when there is so much $$ at stake and your timebank is probably low at this point. Also, if some of the other players are dreadful and their calling/jamming ranges are way off then you can make folds if it's close here.

What about vs top 60/80%? If its easy to change that is.

FFS I just closed it down, went to re-open and it crashed. I'd imagine if he's only jamming 80% then you only have to fold a couple more hands, all the Qx and Jx hands will still be in his jamming range.

60% obv going to be a lot different though, you'd have to be pretty terrible to be in the SB and just jamming 60% of your range though.

Ok got it up, changed his jamming range to 80% and it makes QJo a fold.

(17.9%) 66+,A4s+,A7o+,K9s+,KTo+,QTs+

If it's not a reg then you can maybe adjust your range slightly, but even recs and fish often understand they can jam ATC here. Less likely to be a passive fishy player with so many chips at a turbo final too.

Had seen him jam earlier in a similar spot BvB with 95ss so assumed he was jamming almost ATC here.

95s is a pretty good hand though, he may not shove t2, j3, q4 but shove 95s or 64s

we've gotta gamble, i'm happy calling, can be ahead a fair chunk of the time and dominating more than were dominated.

question for you guys, anyone going with T9s here? or folding?

If you want to lose money, yes. If he jams any two cards calling with t9s is bad.

(17.9%) 66+,A4s+,A7o+,K9s+,KTo+,QTs+ Is around about right because there is a chance villain isn't ATC but v v wide

im calling here vs any reg

Think its good to call here.

What's the average hand, J-7, Q-7ish? surely have to call against the big stack bully who's shoving 9-5ss b-v-b (as he should!) ... Given the blinds are going through us, huge antes, low M, I'm calling fairly quickly in still spot... It's so the type of scenario where you find the fold then bleed away quickly... To me it's a great opportunity to get a healthy stack where we're likely +ev to win the hand and start thinking about the bigger money.

pretty meh

I think I prefer to fold here and then jam atc next hand

What if the big blind calls you with QJo?

Dan had already done the maths, so saying we are frequently ahead of his range is already covered. it seems that even though we are like EV in terms of our chip stack, we are losing because of ICM.  There may be good reasons to ignore ICM, but not sure anyone is covering them.  In game I frequently call and then kick myself for not sporting the unfavourable stacks.

I am struggling to think why we should overuse ICM. When I used to play STTs, if you played frequently against the same people, you could call wider to try and force SB to tighten his range.  But I think if you do that what happens instead is that you end up in spite calling wars and it doesn't help either of you. 

Sorry if this is as unhelpful as everyone else, I think the maths just always wins in these spots.

We get there ?

Snap ainec

+1

, we need to get all the chips right? some guy has 5mil, some more icm stuff pls

Alex the "Tourneys are top heavy gotta come 1st" was a thoughts process that stopped when 5/10nl couldn't be beated for 10bb/100. ICM calc says that this is just a call if he is jamming 100% here. You can fold if the other players are really bad and likely to make horrid ICM plays so you can ladder for free but if the table is reggy then you need to make correct ICM calls.

I really don't understand this, someone has gone to the effort of showing that if villain is jamming 80% it's not a call, so on what planet is it not even close ?

Loads of variables that haven't been mentioned itt.

It's a fun spot.

Watched this hand play out... Confirmed final 3 were all supernova regs. Personally I'd prefer to fold and shove vs the short stack next hand (if we get the opportunity) or ladder up if someone shoves before and he/she is forced to call it off. Likely to find better spots considering and the potential 3k ladder + potential deals slightly alters the spot for me here.

Final 3 split ~ 24k 19k 19k when CL had ~5.5 compared to 2.5 and 2.4

Ahh interesting, I never thought about the likelihood of a deal. If it were close before, it feels that this would swing it towards a fold even more.

I think in game, with a few moments to act I'm right on the line with QJo. I am probably more like to fold. After all this discussion I think my calling range is pretty much anything better than QJo.

is k2 better than qj? or what do you mean by better than qj:?

Hands that have better equity than QJo against opponents range. They are these hands: 66+,A4s+,A7o+,K9s+,KTo+,QTs+

The deal being top 3 heavy can be argued both ways as to how it affects our calling range surely? I.e. If we fold, we could be losing our best/one of our best spots to get a competitive stack size  to improve our chance of a top three score and reduce pur need to make higher variance plays ongoing if we get the double up. How do we measure if it's more/less of a fold when the prizepool is top heavy? Do we not have a similar risk of finishing 4th or 5th if we nit up and watch our stack dwindle hoping another player(a) is eliminated? Given the antes in play we're already very shallow too, so  ICM wise does it become more/less of a call?

Not only is it a bad ICM call but also if villain is going to try to induce his top end and not jam it, QJo still doesn't cut it. A range like 66+,AT+,A9s+,KJs+ is about right if he's 100%, 66+,A9+,A7s+,KJ+,KTs+ if he does exclude the top end. That's using a rough % payout structure I have customed from previous MTT FT's with similar fields.