blonde poker forum

Just been going through my usual morning review of the HH's from the night before and had to do a double take at this spot.  I'm pretty sure I'm not folding jacks here (although looking at the HUD stats I'm not so sure about that either), but what kind of range would be getting it in with?  Everyone is a reg, but from the stats I have so far on C/O they seem like a tight reg (the sb will be aware of this).

PokerStars - $13.77+$1.23|125/250 Ante 25 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4 (http://www.pokertracker.com)

BTN: 4,596             (VPIP: 14.71, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 35)
SB: 2,275        (VPIP: 13.89, PFR: 13.28, 3Bet Preflop: 5.99, Hands: 583)
Hero (BB): 2,475
UTG: 4,545             (VPIP: 18.22, PFR: 16.74, 3Bet Preflop: 10.26, Hands: 264)
UTG+1: 3,680         (VPIP: 17.21, PFR: 14.91, 3Bet Preflop: 6.75, Hands: 520)
MP: 2,790               (VPIP: 17.65, PFR: 12.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 51)
MP+1: 1,160   (VPIP: 18.85, PFR: 17.00, 3Bet Preflop: 8.68, Hands: 825)
CO: 1,700       (VPIP: 8.92, PFR: 8.19, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 376)

8 players post ante of 25, SB posts SB 125, Hero posts BB 250

Pre Flop: (pot: 575) Hero has   Jd Jc

fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 1,135 and is all-in, CO raises to 1,675 and is all-in, fold, SB raises to 2,250 and is all-in, Hero

99+, AQs, AK?

Edit: can't really see me folding 88 or AQ

Just plug it in ICMizer? I'm only guessing

I just hate the fact that the C/O is a hugely nitty reg and the sb is a decent reg who will know that.  So I can't think that his re'isoing range is going to be that wide.  Also, ICMIZER won't do any sums on 4 way all ins for some reason.

EDIT: ICMizer can only calculate up to 3 way all ins, not 4 ways.

RE-EDIT:  I have nashed this but we know what happens when it gets hold of multiway all ins, basically thinks I should be overcalling with anything!  If everyones iso'ing nash (and lets face it they're not), it thinks I should be good with: 22+,A4s+,A8o+,KTs+,KJo+,QTs+,JTs

Just cannot see myself folding here. Plus if i ran like you im like 80% to win this hand anyway after ive flopped a jack

*** FLOP *** [6s 7d Jh]

I mean, we do win the hand, and maybe I only questioned it now I've seen what they had, but I actually have no idea how to work out what our calling range would be.  I think that's more my question, how do we go about calculating our equity when ICMIZER fails?  I've got tons of equity spreadsheets I've made for all sorts of scenarios, just not over-calling 3x all ins....

Who cares about the sb range, your equity is so amazing. Even if his range is JJ+ AQs+ you can still get it in here and his range isn't going to be that strong.

Not sure but next time you have a question about a hand ill just tell you the flop when its you vs when its me and then we can work out who should get it in. 100% if this was me it would have come Ah Ad Kc

(http://30.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lmny794eVa1qewacoo1_500.jpg)

What tournament is it? Stacks all seem pretty shallow. Any other info?

Its a $15 180 man turbo so the stacks will generally be somewhere bewtween 5-20bb throughout.  I could possibly help you out with further info, what do you need?

How many left how many paid? If SB is nitty then I am prob folding but depending on state of tournament overall.  It is a tough spot

Were not concerned about pay jumps untill we get about 4/5 handed, so no ICM / pay considerations at all.

Just wanted to get some closure on this.  We basically need 26.6% equity to make the call.  There can be a huge debate about the shoving ranges as there are tons of variables, but......

HJ - 50% 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J4s+,T6s+,96s+,86s+,76s,65s,A2o+,K5o+,Q7o+,J7o+,T8o+,98o
CO - 7.69% 88+, A9s+, KQs, AJo+
SB - 6%  99+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+

Assuming these calling ranges we should be getting it in with TT+ AKs (and TT is really thin).

You need to select Monte Carlo and not Enumerate all  ;D

The cut off is a rediculously nitty reg, as you can see from the stats I have on him.  I really dont expect him just to randomly punt it in here with hands like 33 or A2s.  I went with 88+, A9s+, KQs, AJo+ but I would think that on reflection it is probably somewhere in between our ranges.  Really shocking that given my ranges, we're meant to fold AKo, but I would never have dreamt of doing so in game, nor would I have folded AQ probably.  Pretty happy with the sb and co ranges though, don't think MP1 would shove ATC into a load of regs though, I think 60-70% feels right.

Yeh he isn't adjusting anywhere near wide enough for that.  In fact I would think he might be less likely to ship wide cause he is essentially calling off most of his stack in doing so.  I understand my sample on this guy isn't huge, but looking at note tracker and what he's shown down I would be quite surprised (or greatly uninformed) if he was shipping much wider than my range.

Oh, and I would also add that I prefer to be a tighter assigning opps shoving ranges too so it allows for some error of judgement.  Not so much of a big deal if we shove one or two hands too wide, but obviously as far as calling goes we have to allow ourselves a margin for error because we are always going to have to run it.

If that is CO's range then he must be the worst player in the world. MP+1 has just gone AI for 4.5bb and you think CO will consider folding 66, AT, A7s?

I mean, the correct gii range for CO should be around 15%, possibly higher. To give him 7% seems nuts.

It's certainly tight, but I've seen him show down nothing but strong hands (SAMPLE, I know), he may not fold 66/AT/A7s, but even if he doesn't fold those particular hands, and a couple more pairs, it doesn't change things for us a great deal (we can maybe add like AKo, AQs and 99 to our range).

Also, like I said before, I like to assign shoving ranges a little bit tighter than they might be to preserve some edge.  Calling off a perfectly good 9-10bb stack here to make 0.1bb would make no sense and it would be even more of a mistake if we assume a player is shoving redic wide when he isn't.


Also, its 180 mans, so this is more than likely  ;D

If co is as tight as you think and sb knows this then its a fold. Surely you are able to win more later on by picking your spots as a 180 man wizard? You could be getting it in quite bad here. Moreover are you ever getting it in that good?