Carlsberg don't do ridiculous spots, but if they did.......

[theprawnidentity]

Just been going through my usual morning review of the HH's from the night before and had to do a double take at this spot.  I'm pretty sure I'm not folding jacks here (although looking at the HUD stats I'm not so sure about that either), but what kind of range would be getting it in with?  Everyone is a reg, but from the stats I have so far on C/O they seem like a tight reg (the sb will be aware of this).

PokerStars - $13.77+$1.23|125/250 Ante 25 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 4,596             (VPIP: 14.71, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 35)
SB: 2,275        (VPIP: 13.89, PFR: 13.28, 3Bet Preflop: 5.99, Hands: 583)
Hero (BB): 2,475
UTG: 4,545             (VPIP: 18.22, PFR: 16.74, 3Bet Preflop: 10.26, Hands: 264)
UTG+1: 3,680         (VPIP: 17.21, PFR: 14.91, 3Bet Preflop: 6.75, Hands: 520)
MP: 2,790               (VPIP: 17.65, PFR: 12.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 51)
MP+1: 1,160   (VPIP: 18.85, PFR: 17.00, 3Bet Preflop: 8.68, Hands: 825)
CO: 1,700       (VPIP: 8.92, PFR: 8.19, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 376)

8 players post ante of 25, SB posts SB 125, Hero posts BB 250

Pre Flop: (pot: 575) Hero has  

fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 1,135 and is all-in, CO raises to 1,675 and is all-in, fold, SB raises to 2,250 and is all-in, Hero

[MC]

99+, AQs, AK?

Edit: can't really see me folding 88 or AQ

Just plug it in ICMizer? I'm only guessing

[theprawnidentity]

99+, AQs, AK?

I just hate the fact that the C/O is a hugely nitty reg and the sb is a decent reg who will know that.  So I can't think that his re'isoing range is going to be that wide.  Also, ICMIZER won't do any sums on 4 way all ins for some reason.

EDIT: ICMizer can only calculate up to 3 way all ins, not 4 ways.

RE-EDIT:  I have nashed this but we know what happens when it gets hold of multiway all ins, basically thinks I should be overcalling with anything!  If everyones iso'ing nash (and lets face it they're not), it thinks I should be good with: 22+,A4s+,A8o+,KTs+,KJo+,QTs+,JTs

[BorntoBubble]

Just cannot see myself folding here. Plus if i ran like you im like 80% to win this hand anyway after ive flopped a jack

[theprawnidentity]

Just cannot see myself folding here. Plus if i ran like you im like 80% to win this hand anyway after ive flopped a jack

*** FLOP *** [ ]

I mean, we do win the hand, and maybe I only questioned it now I've seen what they had, but I actually have no idea how to work out what our calling range would be.  I think that's more my question, how do we go about calculating our equity when ICMIZER fails?  I've got tons of equity spreadsheets I've made for all sorts of scenarios, just not over-calling 3x all ins....

[lucky_scrote]

Who cares about the sb range, your equity is so amazing. Even if his range is JJ+ AQs+ you can still get it in here and his range isn't going to be that strong.

[BorntoBubble]

Just cannot see myself folding here. Plus if i ran like you im like 80% to win this hand anyway after ive flopped a jack

*** FLOP *** [ ]

I mean, we do win the hand, and maybe I only questioned it now I've seen what they had, but I actually have no idea how to work out what our calling range would be.  I think that's more my question, how do we go about calculating our equity when ICMIZER fails?  I've got tons of equity spreadsheets I've made for all sorts of scenarios, just not over-calling 3x all ins....

Not sure but next time you have a question about a hand ill just tell you the flop when its you vs when its me and then we can work out who should get it in. 100% if this was me it would have come Ah

[theprawnidentity]

Not sure but next time you have a question about a hand ill just tell you the flop when its you vs when its me and then we can work out who should get it in. 100% if this was me it would have come Ah

[Junior Senior]

What tournament is it? Stacks all seem pretty shallow. Any other info?

[theprawnidentity]

What tournament is it? Stacks all seem pretty shallow. Any other info?

Its a $15 180 man turbo so the stacks will generally be somewhere bewtween 5-20bb throughout.  I could possibly help you out with further info, what do you need?

[Junior Senior]

How many left how many paid? If SB is nitty then I am prob folding but depending on state of tournament overall.  It is a tough spot

[theprawnidentity]

How many left how many paid? If SB is nitty then I am prob folding but depending on state of tournament overall.  It is a tough spot

Were not concerned about pay jumps untill we get about 4/5 handed, so no ICM / pay considerations at all.

[theprawnidentity]

Just wanted to get some closure on this.  We basically need 26.6% equity to make the call.  There can be a huge debate about the shoving ranges as there are tons of variables, but......

HJ - 50% 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J4s+,T6s+,96s+,86s+,76s,65s,A2o+,K5o+,Q7o+,J7o+,T8o+,98o
CO - 7.69% 88+, A9s+, KQs, AJo+
SB - 6%  99+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+

Assuming these calling ranges we should be getting it in with TT+ AKs (and TT is really thin).

[theprawnidentity]

I think just equilab'ing it will give u a pretty good pic...but take a life time to work out. (Mine been running 5 minutes already n only done 1% calcs!!!)

You need to select Monte Carlo and not Enumerate all 

[theprawnidentity]

What u reckon bout those ranges?

The cut off is a rediculously nitty reg, as you can see from the stats I have on him.  I really dont expect him just to randomly punt it in here with hands like 33 or A2s.  I went with 88+, A9s+, KQs, AJo+ but I would think that on reflection it is probably somewhere in between our ranges.  Really shocking that given my ranges, we're meant to fold AKo, but I would never have dreamt of doing so in game, nor would I have folded AQ probably.  Pretty happy with the sb and co ranges though, don't think MP1 would shove ATC into a load of regs though, I think 60-70% feels right.