blonde poker forum

late starting the thread this year and not really any clue whats been going on in the world of NH racing as ive dedicated the last 4 months entirely to poker.
Had no ante-post bets yet. Once again going down for tuesday/weds/thursday. Whose going, what has everyone backed ante post etc... legggggo

Adz said to me at the weekend he was gonna start one, but I think he's been pretty busy.

All my antepost are on my desktop, so will post them when I am in the office.

Only got one so far, Hurricane Fly @ 13/2+ for a reasonable chunk.

Pretty competitive Champion Hurdle, will you be laying any back or do you think he has it again this year? I've done him myself at both 5's and 4's and I'm happy with the position. I also took 888 up on there special for him to with by 4 lengths at 24-1 ( not that I think he will but I couldn't resist).

Day 1

Supreme Novices Hurdle

West Wizard   @ 20/1
The Liquidator @ 20/1


The Arkle

Rock on Ruby @ 16/1
Valdez @ 20/1


Champion Hurdle

Un De Sceaux @ 14/1


National Hunt Chase

Foxrock @ 9/1

Also on west wizard at 20/1, liking this one.
Was on rubi ball in the gold cup but no longer running.
Last installment at 33/1 gold cup, now 10/1.
Will be backing saphir du rheu.
Like the new one in the champion hurdle.

Hopefully West Wizard goes, but I think that I prefer the Liquidator of the 2, and you have to hope that Vautour does  a Pont Alexandre  :P

I had Rubi Ball @ 33s too, and the money had started to come for him before he was withdrawn.

I had a £5ew on Last Instalment and Lyreen Legend when Neil posted on Sunday, so had a touch there whatever happens.

I backed SDR NRNB for the World, so it looks like I will be getting that back to punt on wherever he goes.

I've not even watched a race since Goodwood, let alone follow it. Think i will just back whatever Ruby is riding blind

Day 2

RSA Chase

Rock on Ruby @ 16/1
Corrin Wood   @ 25/1
Smad Place    @  14/1


Queen Mother  Champion Chase

Arvika Ligeonniere @ 16/1
Alderwood @ 33/1

Day 3

Pertemps Final

Grand Vision @ 25/1
Sadlers Risk  @ 50/1 (Cheeky £5ew, because it owes me a bundle, and Adz a lot more :D)


Ryanair Chase

Marito @ 14/1

Might have to get on Al Ferof @ 7/1 though


World Hurdle

Zarkandar @ 14/1
Saphir De Rheu @ 14/1

Best places to visit in Bristol after the races or in Cheltenham?

It's certainly shaping up to be a great race this year but I'm not tempted to lay any off at current prices. None of the pretenders has yet run up to a 170 mark so they all have a few lbs. to find.

I would probably save my stake if I could lay 2/1 but happy to go with it.

If anyone fancy's Our Conor for the Champion Hurdle, Skybet are doing a special Enhanced Double price until 11pm tonight with Sprinter Sacre, Sire de Grucy, Big Bucks, Bobs Worth or Silivanio Conti.

It's under Cheltenham Specials.

Hurricane fly to finish top 3 - 4/5.
Thoughts?

Sounds very generous to me but it's around that on betty too.

Corrin Wood my only bet so far loved the way it jumped the last twice

In what race is Annie Power going to run in!

Blonde meet up at Chelters?

ill see you down there mate, don't miss any late 16/1 plots at wolves!!

first ante post bet, £50/1200  supreme novice hurdle winner -- Valseur Lido, now don't go for the neptune plz

Does anybody know who pricewise has put up in the Ryanair Chase tonight?

Looking at Oddschecker I would say Dynaste.

2+2 usually makes 4, cheers Marky should have worked it out myself!

First Lieutenant has also shortened up considerably today.

Off to Vegas next week for 10 days before the Festival, but thought it would be good to get some thoughts down about some of the key races.

I gave my thoughts on the Champion Hurdle a while back on TFT.......

Lets have a go at the Arkle today.

Champagne Fever remains an enigma to me. I couldn't have him in the Supreme last year, but wasn't surprised when he won. When he was being written off after the race at Leopardstown over Xmas, i thought he looked superb up until his mistake. I wasn't overly concerned by the distance he was beaten, as it was a shuddering jolt, and Ruby looked after him. The contraction in his price the last fortnight certainly suggests connections at Mullins must think so anyway!

For me, what makes this race so nice, is the ease in which I can put a line through a large chunk of the market because I just cant have either Nicholls horse. Hinterland couldnt lose his novice status last year and this year has only outbattled the dog that is Grandouet.
Dodging Bullets has a little more respect but I expected a top class horse to fend off Module last time at Newbury. Before that he too beat Grandouet, and before that he beat an out of form Raya Star, and Ted Veale, who only shows his true worth in big handicaps(i hope!!). Not for me.

Valdez is the other I cant have, purely for the fact it will have Choc on board. The guy seems to have just lost the plot these last few years and for the big races he has won, or not thrown away, I am happy to stand this one. He also hasn't beaten a great deal to date.

I must confess I have always been a Rock on Ruby fan. He has been a consistently under rated horse, imo, and I couldn't resist backing him for this before he had even jumped a fence in public.
Neither performance has been staggering or electric or even impressive, but as always with him, solid and enough. If he is going to win you will have to cheer him all the way from the bottom off the hill to the line, because it will be a fight.
I have tickets with 25s on and if he stays on his feet I cant see this ex Champion Hurdle winner being out of the frame, as he always seems to rise to the occasion come the Festival. Harry Fry, his trainer, is superb and rarely makes a mistake in his preparation and placing.

Finally the other one i quite like is Trifolium. In the race I talked about earlier with Champagne Fever, Davy Russell had Trifolium, well out of his ground and made up the thick end of 15 lengths in the final few furlongs on the winner Defy Logic. He then went onto totally smash the field in the Irish Arkle and crushed Felix Yonger, who looked like he needed further and better ground.
In his favour, we know he acts round Cheltenham having come third in a Supreme. He is trained by Charles Byrne, a proper, ready for the big day merchant and finally the two times Bryan Cooper has ridden him, he has looked awesome.

Like the Champion, i can again see this cutting up into a small field. Much of the remaining horses quoted in the betting have alternative engagements over further, or in handicaps, Like Balder Succes, Felix Yonger, Ballycasey, Don Cossack, Raya Star, Ted Veale, Djakadam etc. This could quite easily end up with 7 going to post.

One thing i cant see is anything outside the ones I have mentioned winning.

I have the big price on Rock on Ruby and so 7s looks skinny for a horse with so little experience, but several have won it with similar levels of experience and I suspect none have won the Champion Hurdle. if he wins 7s will still look big for a horse with his CV. I have to play on Trifolium too and will be heading into the race with ew plays on both. GL

Valdez on the bridle then :D

 ;melissa;

I had chucked a few quid on Valdez a while back, obviously in the hope that Thornton came down with a virus before Cheltenham!

I didn't get 25/1, but I backed RoR after Ben put him in his '5 of the year' after xmas.

Go on Noel!

I'm quite fond of ROR for the Arkle, it has a lot in it's favour.

Spring horse, loves Cheltenham and is a specialist two-miler.

Unfortunately I'm not on @ 25/1 though :(

I am also a big fan of CF which looked magnificent last time until making that error.

Another great race in prospect with not just those two in contention.

Nice write up Adz, cheers.

I have been nibbling away in bits on Irving for the Supreme so hoping for a decent run today. In the same race today I think it is interesting that Cup Final has been sent here, was fav to beat Irving first time out when they were both strongly fancied and got a nasty injury during the race. Would have been very easy to send it to win a tin pot race  and see what the handicapper did with a view to getting a decent mark but they have sent it str8 back in against good horses so it looks like they like him a lot. Could be one to keep an eye on for the future even if they do just give it an easy ish race today.

Sky are refunding all losing bets up to £25 (as a free bet) if Irving wins.

I read about Cup Final yesterday, and think I might divert my £25 onto his shoulders today.

Queen Mother

With The Chemist sounding less convincing about the participation of the great Sprinter Sacre, you feel that even if he turns up it will be even money that he runs his race or not.

If he is 90%,  that should be good enough. But there are enough if's that I think we should be looking round for some juicy ew value, as again this could cut up to a smaller field than the magic 8 starters.

Starting with Sire de Grugy who has done me and TFT several favours this year, including in the race where SS lost his unblemished chasing record.
He has undoubtedly been most impressive and deserves to be clear second rated in the 2m division, and looks, at face value, to have the measure of the rest of the field(a fit SS aside). However I get the impression The Queen Mum has not been the focus of Gary Moores attention, and picking up the rich Group 1 pickings in between has been equally satisfying to the team in West Sussex.

Let us not forget earlier on in the year he was also beaten by Kid Cassidy at Cheltenham, and his previous other effort at Cheltenham also saw him finish second. At skinny odds, any value has gone, and I also think a tough season on the heaviest ground of the year, may take its toll come March, on what looks like being ground nowhere near as soft/heavy as he has been encountering.

Benefficient is next in the betting, and he seems to be one of those horses that keeps winning, but the wins pass me by, and although he has some notable scalps, I get the feeling he has benefited from some below par efforts and a bit of luck from in running incidents. He has the measure of the rest of the Irish contingent, having beaten them all in The Dial a Bet Chase. I felt he was some fortunate to beat Hidden Cyclone in that race, but HC subsequent performance against Sire, makes me think the Irish are all much of a muchness, and beatable. In that group, I also include Arvika Legionnaire who has looked a bit soft to me when it comes to the top top races.

For me, the each way play, has to be Captain Conan.

Lasy year I felt he was potentially this years Annie Power. Much as I think AP can beat H. Fly, I fancy she may be sacrificed to run over 3m in the World Hurdle. She may well win, but she will have to go into unknown territory in order that Mullins can protect his beloved Fly from her.
Last year I was all over Captain Conan for the Arkle and his performances to me suggested the hill at Cheltenham over two miles were ideal for him. However, Henderson had the talking horse Simonsig for the Arkle, and nothing for the Jewson, so I feel CC wasn't placed to optimum effect, despite Hendo still winning the Arkle.

This year looks like CC is being primed for a proper spring festival campaign having had only one run so far in the Tingle Creek. There he jumped beautifully in the main and looked to these eyes to need the run when tiring coming to the last and being beaten by a race fit Sire de G just over seven lengths. As a seven year old, he is probably still got a smidgen of improvement in him. It was also at a time when The Chemists horses were running under a bit of a cloud.
All things considered I think CC can make up the 7 lengths on SDG and at the comparative prices of  5/2 or 12-1, I know which one strikes me as the better bet.GL

It's like Pricewise for free!

Neptune next please  mate :)up

Cheers mate

I think at this stage its very difficult to be too conclusive about any of the hurdle races especially with several trainers having so many multiple entries.

I'm probably only going to have time to do the GC write up later. I will also put up my fancies and bets for other races if you like? A couple of strong fancies in some non championship races.


NB, Interesting to see a current favourite Saphir du Rheu just get beat. Could be the fact a couple of tough races in tough winter ground have just bottomed him out for the year? Could be the theme for the next few weeks!

I'm tempted to chuck a score on Deputy Dan with BMU, but you've got Sherlock there, and the obligatory Mullins hotpot too.

SDR looked to be travelling well, but then emptied out pretty quick once off the bridle, and Choc had probably backed Kayf Moss :)

Glad that he's not going to run in the World now though, and I'll get my dough back from 365.

Bang them all up, I'm sure that I'm not the only one who follows you blind!

Just looking at Oddschecker, everything is shortening for the QMCC today, and SS is drifting.

Anyone got a line to Hendo's yard?

Tbh, I can't remember looking forward to a Festival less than this years.

Getting boring with 3 stables so utterly dominant.

Sprinter Sacre matched at 2-1 today?

Good day to post Queen Mum selection.

That 12-1 going fast!

Market suspended on Betfair... Someone did their got a speculative oner on SS @ 60 before it went though.

Not running at festival.

Adz knew all along, well done mate very nice timing, 12-1 lovely!

Great write ups as well, must take a lot of time to write and must say I for one appreciate them so thanks very much. Very much in the black with your picks so happy just to back what you put up even if you don't have time for a write up, I know I know it's all free, right? Ha ha you have me in stitches every time you write it.

Good luck with your picks and thanks for all the hard work,one day you will be rewarded very very well.

Was a 3 day reg every year renting a house with pals, long hard slog to be honest, can study form all year round but just go with our gut feeling in a very competitive festival, don't enjoy the racing anymore espically on a cold March on the Hill, good luck to those going this year.

Nice one Adzy, it's all about timing!

Gold Cup.

I am hoping this is the easiest one to solve.

Firstly, one of my favourite horses that has been talked up, is one I just cant have.
I backed captain Chris last year and he jumped right last year. Yes he has won an Arkle round here, yes he has been very impressive this year, and may have improved. The plain fact is that he still jumps right, and the further he goes the more pronounced he seems to do it, probably as he starts to tire, costing him valuable lengths as was seen in last years renewal, where for 3/4 of the race he went as well as anything imo. In the end, the constant loss of 1,2,3 lengths at every fence paid a hefty penalty and he trailed home in 6th. This year Tom Seagull feels he is jumping straighter. I beg to differ with the great man and think Johnson is just more aware of his quirks and keeps him tight up to the rail when going right handed. Even in his two last impressive wins he has almost gone through the right wing as he jumps to the right. I wish him well, but just cant back him this year.

Much as I admire Cue Card, I think the bare form of The Betfair Chase was more down to a lovely ride and some ring rusty opponents. In the King George Silviniaco Contini outstayed him and I see no reason to think CC can reverse this on the 14th March.

Last Installment is very interesting. His demolition of the usual Irish suspects and Tidal Bay was emphatic in the Irish Hennessey Gold Cup, but he was given plenty of rope on ground that suits. On official ratings he still has 20ish lb to make up on Bobs Worth, and if you take some straight line comparisons between his victory and Bobs Worth's in the Lexus you would say that LI could have his measure. I just don't think so. We also have to factor in that BW is a massively better horse at Cheltenham than he seems to be anywhere else. If you have a tasty 40-1 voucher. Brilliant. However the current best of 8s makes no appeal to me.

For me the key is last years Gold Cup.
The three that interest me are S.Conti, Bobs Worth, and The Giant Bolster.
I consider this year to be a question of how much more did SC have under the bonnet when he fell? For sure he was going exceptionally well, but we have seen that many times before and a horse just empty up that hill. SC proved in the King George he had guts and heart as he dug deep to go past Cue Card. He also has an extra year under his belt, but i just can't help thinking against Bobs Worth he has an adversary who has liquid granite pumping through his horsey veins, and will always find that little bit more up the Cheltenham Eiger.
If SC was still 5-1s or better he looks an ew bet to nothing, but that has long gone. No I am with BW all the way, but I also think some amazing value remains with The Giant Bolster.

Second two years ago, he ran a mighty race finsihing 4th beaten just 15l after some very poor jumping in the last mile. His mistake 6 out cost him  plenty in both ground and probably reserves, but he just kept plugging away. This is a horse that just loves Cheltenham, and had almost be completely written off until his last race in the Argento, the final big trial race for the GC in England. In ground not expected to be in his favour he demolished the opposition and galloped all the way up the hill in top gear, proving he was back to his best. Behind him were two big talking horses in Harry Topper and Rocky Creek, both who were easily seen off up the hill when at the bottom of the hill, it looked anyones race.

To my mind, i see this race as being a real dogfight between S.Conti and Bobs Worth, which i see Bobs Worth winning, but every few years the Gold Cup throws up a winner that you think, why didn't I have a few bob on that, as all the clues were there. This year it could be The Giant Bolster, and at 25-1 I am having a good ew bet to go with my Bobs Worth win bet. GL

Quote from Stable Tour at Hendos today on Captain Conan

Captain Conan

I think he probably is a two-mile horse. We tried him over two and half, principally last year to try and keep out of Simonsig's way. We haven't run him since the Tingle Creek and he really looked as if he'd come to win the race two out and he didn't get home, but we've had a few issues and things that hopefully we've corrected. Things have gone quite well since then and though he hasn't had a race, he'll have a racecourse gallop over the weekend and if everything goes good then he comes in with a fighting chance. Sire De Grugy is now the horse to beat and this fellow has got the ability to do so.


I am giving myself a pat on the back for recognising a year before The Chemist, CC was a two miler ;bumwiggle;

Annie Power now trading @ 20/1+ on betty for the CH.

It looks like the Mullins/Ricci posse may have made a decision to protect her from the beast that is Hurricane Fly.

 ;smackedbottom;

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=63340.msg1910675#new

gonna go smash the new one e/w at 3/1 for the champion hurdle and have smaller e/w on our conor at 9/2  absolutely bomb proof these bets.
fever has hit me.

I backed Un De Sceaux, so at least I know I'm getting a return :)

I actually found a smaller bet on Annie Power, which was obviously at the advice of Adz and unfortunately looks like not being live either...

I've got the Fly in one of my ice creams, but am really just looking forward to so many ridic horses going at it!

are there any firms doing a special offer on the champion hurdle plz?

had a bet in the queen mother tonight,  special Tiara e/w 25/1 with hills
this horse loves spring ground so were banking on that for starters. Ran a good race behind kid cassidy (who might not run in this) and sire de grugy at cheltenham in november after making too much of himself but just had one run since in unsuitable ground, getting well beaten on what looked nothing more than a run around. This is his only entry for the week and at 25/1 when the race could cut up, it looks a great e/w bet NRNB

Lads are doing moneyback* if HF finishes 1st or 2nd.

*As a free bet up to £25

in shops aswell?

Nah, that looks like it's online only.

This offer is available in all Ladbrokes shops.

If you did it with BMU as I suggested you will get a free bet, you tart.

That's a result for some then, when I was looking through on the website it alluded to it appeared that it was for online bets only.

Oh, that was what you meant... Of course I did it with them.

Tart, says the man that's on Blonde at this time of night when he's in Vegas?!?!

Something is rotten in the state of Denmark..

MTOY drifting significantly on betty in the CH market.

Nicky Henderson says My Tent Or Yours expected to run at Cheltenham but has a "little puncture wound in his near-fore sole"

"Nobody can guarantee anything but I am seriously hopeful everything will be all right."

"We are looking at it as we speak and are pretty confident it won't affect his participation"

Totesport have got a £50 price boost on Champagne Fever for the Arkle right now for those that can.  Only fair people take it to make up for betdead accounts reduced to peanuts.

got link? cant find

Money Back if Quevega Wins

Tuesday 11th March 2014

Place a bet on any horse in the David Nicholson Mares Hurdle (OLBG) and if Quevega wins we will refund all losing stakes as a free bet up to £25.

Betfred.

Any good?

https://www.racebets.com/en/horse-racing/race/details/id/1081600/



New One at 4/1.
Quick.
3.9 betfair.

Until 2pm.

Prices not close enough to Betfair, looked last night.

It has gone now I am afraid.

Linfoot raving about this Calipto in the Triumph, so I've had a punty cover on it with Annie Power and Quevega...

big adz ive pm'd you

I've text Adz for you, Rich.



http://www.livestream.com/betfair_tv

Link for Betfair preview tomorrow night, which was comedy last year.

Mark Winstanley is comedy value, and hopefully he has recovered from Pont Alexandre getting beat last year :D

Live preview with Jim McGrath, John Francome, and Tony McCoy


YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOGs8dpQ_7Y

are you sure this was last night? not up on youtube yet?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sed_haRQjN0

Chapman is actually starting to grow on me, and it's comedy watching him put it on them.

Didn't think it was good this year though.

That's the 4 days


YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sed_haRQjN0


YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fK-DcmFirEs


YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2L_A1eVWwKY


YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FBD4owRU2xQ

Great stuff lately from Final Furlong Podcast crew in run-up to Cheltenham they've really stepped up their already excellent game.
Neil Channing special guest on betting strategy last night.
https://soundcloud.com/emmet-kennedy/neil-channing-on-the-final
Their next one due up Sunday night.

Good listen, cheers for posting.

Given the ground is going to be nearer good I like Felix Yonger quite a lot now in the JLT Novice. Put up some really good performances on ground too soft and should love the step back up in trip and after running 2nd to Simonsig at the festival a few years ago we know it acts on the track.

Thanks Phil,

5/1 was still available 20 minutes ago with WH, so I have had some EW action.

Best price on Our Conor 9/2 with a few, 5.4 on Bf, Laddies ......... 100/30!  Do you think there Hurricane Fly promotion is cause and effect?

Although their 10-1 on Jezki isn't bad if you fancy it.

paddypower go 20/1 on the supreme fav being any other than irving or vatour its a must bet

I lumped on Vatour :\

Any chance I can pick your brain on why this is a must bet, not questioning it obv, only betting bowls anyways so np's if busy, just interested.

GLGL this week.

This

last year there was a big gamble on champagne fever, albeit not getting close to MTOY in the market but there are a couple of sleepers in this race, and its the first race of the meeting everyone has reddies the irish get carried away and irving looks like it could be a big drifter. If the punters get stuck into gilbamboa or one of the others the bookies have to drift the other two. I just think its more of a 8/1 shot and 20s is huge

Ok tyty.

William Hill doing 4 price boosts daily between 12-1 for festival.

Tour de Champs and Attaglance my first darts in 2morrows hcaps

Jason Maguire out of Cheltenham after a fall at Stratford this afternoon.

Couple I really fancy tomorrow at tasty prices. Is it ridiculous that I'm not posting them because I'll probably be using them in the sweepstake?!

Share the wealth, Pricewise ;)

Will do after midday :)

Even Tal is refusing to share his tips now.  No wonder TfT is dying on its arse.

Maybe we should be grateful.

That Sweep is worth winning with 40 runners, though.

(https://i1.ytimg.com/vi/5_1w749AD48/hqdefault.jpg)

They aren't recommends for Fred. Just my own fancies. Fear not.

Just looking for the 'copter :D

Roflcopter?

Doobs knows ;D

We all knows!

We mug punters are the reason you shrewdies can make a living. Stop tapping the tank!

I'm going to the Festival today.

Any other Blondites going?

Going. 3 Brooky runners so gonna be busy........celebrating hopefully!

VBOL sir.

Backed vautour to go off as favourite.
What happens if joint fave?

Persian Snow sixth covered by Green Flag coming fourth.

I could have looked a bigger fool. That is at least something.

I just wish i was still able to drink considerably more.

LOL. only gone and won The Arkle....oioioioioioioi

Congrats Adzy, that must be an amazing feeling.

When time permits, tell us the story of the day, the background, everything.

great stuff mate I hope the celebrations were good. You do realise that if you had  been on TV for any longer this afternoon you would have had to get an Equity card? ;o)

Great scenes yesterday.

As ever Pipe wide of the mark. Starts the day telling us that Liquidator in great form and Close House working well in headgear.
 
Wished Western W had been in a handicap, and overfaced.......what a shrewd judge he is.

Didn't get too involved in the immediate celebrations as felt it it would be churlish, in view of my criticism of the bloke, but was delighted for the family who pile millions into the game.

Needless to say champagne flowed all afternoon and even CH blowing out didn't dent their mood.

When I learn how to download stuff like this I will post the pic I have of the Imperial Cup and Arkle Trophy on the kitchen table!!

Personally, I had told a few I thought the Arkle was the perfect race for the horse, and hopefully Trigg got the lot as he had PMd me a few days back to ask about it.

Didn't get anywhere near the rest of the day, and despite blowing a massive chunk of cash on other stuff, still made a profit due to a 66-1 smasher. GL today

Favourite memories of the festival?

We all know Adz's, and I can only imagine what a great day that must have been, even without the 66/1 winner :D


Just rewatched Sire De Grugy winning the QM Champion Chase, and have to say that was the highlight of the whole week for me.

Cost me money, because I was on Arvika and Captain Conan, but the whole thing was just great to watch.

Never seen anything like what happened after the race, where you had all the other jockeys making sure to congratulate him immediately upon finishing.

I'm sure it has happened before, but I've never seen it myself, and the guard of honour from all the other jockeys as he came in was great stuff!