Off to Vegas next week for 10 days before the Festival, but thought it would be good to get some thoughts down about some of the key races.
I gave my thoughts on the Champion Hurdle a while back on TFT.......
Lets have a go at the Arkle today.
Champagne Fever remains an enigma to me. I couldn't have him in the Supreme last year, but wasn't surprised when he won. When he was being written off after the race at Leopardstown over Xmas, i thought he looked superb up until his mistake. I wasn't overly concerned by the distance he was beaten, as it was a shuddering jolt, and Ruby looked after him. The contraction in his price the last fortnight certainly suggests connections at Mullins must think so anyway!
For me, what makes this race so nice, is the ease in which I can put a line through a large chunk of the market because I just cant have either Nicholls horse. Hinterland couldnt lose his novice status last year and this year has only outbattled the dog that is Grandouet.
Dodging Bullets has a little more respect but I expected a top class horse to fend off Module last time at Newbury. Before that he too beat Grandouet, and before that he beat an out of form Raya Star, and Ted Veale, who only shows his true worth in big handicaps(i hope!!). Not for me.
Valdez is the other I cant have, purely for the fact it will have Choc on board. The guy seems to have just lost the plot these last few years and for the big races he has won, or not thrown away, I am happy to stand this one. He also hasn't beaten a great deal to date.
I must confess I have always been a Rock on Ruby fan. He has been a consistently under rated horse, imo, and I couldn't resist backing him for this before he had even jumped a fence in public.
Neither performance has been staggering or electric or even impressive, but as always with him, solid and enough. If he is going to win you will have to cheer him all the way from the bottom off the hill to the line, because it will be a fight.
I have tickets with 25s on and if he stays on his feet I cant see this ex Champion Hurdle winner being out of the frame, as he always seems to rise to the occasion come the Festival. Harry Fry, his trainer, is superb and rarely makes a mistake in his preparation and placing.
Finally the other one i quite like is Trifolium. In the race I talked about earlier with Champagne Fever, Davy Russell had Trifolium, well out of his ground and made up the thick end of 15 lengths in the final few furlongs on the winner Defy Logic. He then went onto totally smash the field in the Irish Arkle and crushed Felix Yonger, who looked like he needed further and better ground.
In his favour, we know he acts round Cheltenham having come third in a Supreme. He is trained by Charles Byrne, a proper, ready for the big day merchant and finally the two times Bryan Cooper has ridden him, he has looked awesome.
Like the Champion, i can again see this cutting up into a small field. Much of the remaining horses quoted in the betting have alternative engagements over further, or in handicaps, Like Balder Succes, Felix Yonger, Ballycasey, Don Cossack, Raya Star, Ted Veale, Djakadam etc. This could quite easily end up with 7 going to post.
One thing i cant see is anything outside the ones I have mentioned winning.
I have the big price on Rock on Ruby and so
looks skinny for a horse with so little experience, but several have won it with similar levels of experience and I suspect none have won the Champion Hurdle. if he wins
will still look big for a horse with his CV. I have to play on Trifolium too and will be heading into the race with ew plays on both. GL
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