blonde poker forum

Well, I thought it was interesting.

I've bought in late and not a lot of note has happened before this hand.

Everyone has roughly got starting stack of 25k and we're playing 100-200

Guy opens UTG for 500, 3 callers.

I call OTB with Ad 9d.

Both blinds call and we see the flop 7 handed.

Flop is 3d 4c 5d.

Checked around to me, I decide to take the free card (thoughts?)

Turn is the 6d.

UTG bets 800.

2 callers, the player to act before me makes it 1800.

I call (thoughts?)

2 of the three remaining players call.

See the river 4 handed which is 9c

First two check, turn bettor bets 4800.

I call (thoughts?)


What do you reckon?

I might raise the turn. I would definitely raise the river. No-one folds flushes.

I think the hand is wp and flatting river actually quite an interesting consideration. I mean it has gone 7 way preflop, unless you know there's complete punters on the table maybe they can actually fold a lot of flushes in this instance to a raise/jam. Whereas by calling there might be value in the average rec being tempted to flick it in with a straight/flush/set being enticed by the far better odds.

think id play it differently.

i would bet the flop because everyones checked and we have a monster hand, we look very strong betting into 6 players, we're pretty unlikely to get raised and we don't really mind calling a raise anyway very deep.

On the turn I would probably raise again, but don't mind the flat call so everyone flicks it in possibly all drawing dead. And you're disguised so you can get some nice chunky value on the river......

 :tikay:

Do you not think a raise on the river of a bet so big is pretty much only going to be from the nuts?

But even so, no-one folds flushes.

My plan was to raise the river (obviously), but when the villain made such a big bet (was expecting something in the 2800 to 3000 range) I thought I was more likely to get a call from one of the other two players with a 7 or a smaller flush, than to get the villain to call a click back raise on the river.

It's the first time I've ever had the nuts in a pot with so many bbs and never put a bet or a raise in.

He's bet less than half pot no?

So you weren't scared of the straight flush, you just wanted to get overcallers / thought over callers were more likely than a raise getting paid?

4800 into 9700 if my maths is right

I might have got the bet sizes slightly wrong, On seeing the river bet, without counting the pot I felt it was 2/3rds+ of the pot.

Exactly right, felt like any raise would look like exactly the nuts. Whereas a crying call is looks like a 7 or a baby flush.

It's difficult to comment because you will get a different reaction to a river raise than me!

I will get looked up by a 7 or any flush for sure, so I'll be loving life raising the river and expect to get paid.

However if you raised me on the river in this spot I'd be hero folding everything really as like you said, it does look so nutted

looks good, still jamming river, players are still pretty incapable of big folds. Dont think you encourage as many overcalls as you think, he probably has no idea who you are etcetc.

I'd defo, defo bet the flop, our hand is big and can very happily stand a raise.

Also all worse diamond draws are going to call us and that's excellent news as we have those hands crussshhhhhed, also pair+straight draws will call and we're doing great vs those. Too much value missed here by checking.

Turn, mmmm ok I think it's ok to just call - you're hand looks like the Ad now which is ok, raising fine too but if we've coolered him then we're getting a big pot from him anyway and we don't want the other 2 folding a set or 2p or a straight.

As played you have to raise the river, the guy looks so strong, he probably has a flush and he will almost certainly not fold. Put it this way the chance of him not folding is significantly higher than the chance of either of the two of them both calling behind and we make the same money. Also a chance he raises AI, in which case we win even more :)

jamming the river in a gps at level 2 every day of the week with the ability to re enter for people willing to punt/can't fold flushes or the nut straight and the range of players playing the event esp in Edinburgh where there were a lot of local sat players in the field.

i like betting flop small ~900 on the river go ahead and raise you got around 22k left i'd put around half of that in.

I think the line you've taken you should be more inclined to Jam the river. If the villain would anticipate you'd bet any AdXd hand in position on the flop it gives larger credit to jamming an AdX hand as a bluff on the river, therefore, he's way more probable to level himself into a call than you are of getting an overcall.

I really don't think anybody who is thinking is going to think a river raise is anything but the nuts here. I would say even if Camel was an unknown 90% of blondes would fold a KdXd flush here. It just depends on the experience level of the players on your table. To be fair so multiway so early on in a GPS there is a good chance of being called like how Arbboy said.

fyp

(Was a setup sorry had to get there first)

I like your line and jam river, yes your hand can stand a raise on the flop but if you are up against a set, a made straight (possibly even a hand like  8d 7d vs some) you're likely to get raised pretty big, then when you just call and want to start ploughing money in on diamonds your hand is pretty face up. I think by betting the flop you set yourself up for a pretty bad situation on the turn if you get raised big on the flop a face a big barrel on a blank turn.

Say you bet 1800 into 3500 on the flop, get raised to ~6k and call you're looking at a 15.5k pot on the turn with 17k back and you have to fold to any reasonable sized bet on a blank turn which is an absolute disaster when you have this much equity.

Its a concept that comes up a lot in PLO and I think is pretty applicable here, when you have a nut draw in a multiway pot its so important to realise your equity because your implied odds are massive, especially in these live tournaments where players tend to be pretty sticky. Against 6 other players on a very coordinated flop I'd just rather let the draws that we dominate get there because I don't really rate our chances of winning this pot very often without improving

So somebody who's thinking wouldn't ever consider you had the ability to bluff an AdX hand in this spot after the line you've taken? You're working under the assumption that the player is always capable of folding KdXd. Unless you have some strong reasoning for not trying to get maximum value I don't see how you can't jam the river.

Very convincing argument.

yeh would bet flop real small to get hands like TJo to fold which share equity with us or just check. When we get to the river people can be convinced we're using a blocker more often and discount value combos from our range, although live this is not such a big thing ofc, having to fold this on the turn would suck.

Interesting hand especially with so the number of players in the pot.
Personally I like the call on the turn its the river spot in this hand
that seems key. Jam here does seem like the play have to agree.
Can see the merits of calling. We jam and either don't have to show
our hand or the other player lumps it in. You never know.

Very solid post. Completely agree.

Not sure how relevant plenos point about betting the flop so people think we're using a blocker means much at all when we are 6 ways in a live comp. Overestimating the amount of equity JTo shares 6 ways on 34d5d esp when we have A9dd too.

And it's not just exactly jto vs our hand but there's 6 hands out there's a good chance that one of then turns a pair that won't fold and ends up winning when everybody knuckles or turns some kind of equity that they want to bet twice with as a bluff or bet once as a bluff then river a pair etc etc etc

Going X ways we need to be comfortable knowing we won't win the pot all the time and accept that though. We aren't worried about the random 1pr turns because we are naturally protected by everyone else in the hand and have a draw to the nuts.

 When you write not such a big thing and I feel it is in no way relevant to this comp we still differ quite a lot! Blocker won't even have been heard of by most of the players. Its more likely someone will not give you credit for having a big flush because you checked the button then the thought of  Ad blocker even occurring.

hmmmm good post Dan.