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...well probably not, but I doubt have they ever been higher than 3rd in the Championship (or equivelant, back in the day), which is their current position.

Realistically, do they have any chance of making it?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/tables

The Bookies rate them @ around 9/2 for Promotion, which seems fearfully skinny to me.

Can this really be happening?


(https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQ3mG_i4cMgSVctgqFlxZCZPG3Ve58YUSuhjKH-jW7Vpz6rsqo2)

http://www.standard.co.uk/sport/football/brentford-owner-matthew-benham-every-championship-club-wants-to-get-into-the-premier-league-and-we-are-no-different-9336176.html

Why not?  Money talks at all levels of football and Brentford have as much as most in the Championship.

I have watched almost every game the team has played this season and only Bournemouth and Boro deserved results against us. Warburton favours a high energy pressing game which borders on reckless at times but teams don't seem to be able work out what to do when they don't have time to pick a pass. Yesterday Wolves must have kicked the ball directly into touch about 8 or 9 times as a result. The number of goals Brentford have scored recently from winning the ball in the opposition's final third is incredible.

I think it's only natural that results will level off a bit as teams have more video to research but I think the real key depends on how the team's fitness pans out through the winter. Pressing that hard on wet, heavy pitches will really take it's toll and that's when squad depth will be tested. I have not seen any reason why Brentford can't be in the mix at the end of the season and I'm certainly enjoying the ride!

Brentford were very good at Vicarage Road and unlucky to lose, which is the only time I have seen them.  I suspect the rigours of the Championship will expose squad depth of Brentford/Bournemouth/Ipswich over 46 games, and squads like Watford (for all the fact that they are a complete shambles at the moment), Derby and Middlesborough will push forwards.  However, if they can stay clear of injuries to key players and keep settled sides there is no reason why one of these teams can't do a Burnley and secure automatic promotion this season, with another one in the playoffs.

Injuries permitting, the importance of a settled side can't be overstated.  70% of Watford's problems this season are caused by idiotic rotation just to keep stroppy big name players "happy" by giving them some game time.  Just results in half the players not understanding what is required of them, especially when the formations chop and change as well.

Would be a good story but all the underlying numbers say no unless they're missing something.

Which underlying numbers?

Basically concede more shots than they take, hard to finish in the top 6 playing like this.

Not sure how many of the games you've watched but I think that is either incorrect or a massive misnomer. In terms of high quality scoring chance differential, Brentford would been a big positive. Most of the chances the oppo seem to get are often 25 yard pot shots.

I've not looked back through the stats for the last 10 games or so but i'd think we'd be the team with the most possession more often than not and would have the most shots on target more regularly too.

Their shots on target ratio is slightly positive and there is only Boro, Bournemouth and Norwich that are massively better.  It is a very, very tight division and results in the bag are important.  Given the team they have their I wouldn't be writing them off just yet.

It's a wide open league, I say it's more than possible.

Anyone but Derby!

If I was to pick a top 2, I don't think I could to be honest.

Didn't look at shots on target. Agreed but I still think it is unlikely. Their last 4 games are pretty kind though and who knows what the fuck is going to happen in the upcoming transfer window with all the banning going on.

The impossible dream lives on, a victory away to Norwich today keeps them right in the mix.

 

Good victory that ,thoroughly deserved.

An impressive victory as well, well deserved against an admittedly below par Norwich. If we don't go up it's safe to say Jota won't be with us next year, what a player he is. Pritchard is some talent as well but will on loan from Spurs - big future on the game imo.

Big game on TV next Saturday - Boro were the best team we've played so far this year. If we get a result I really will start to believe.

Great sweat seeing Brentford as the biggest fixture on soccer saturday while everyone else is chasing a silly cup

Very poor against us a couple of weeks back, didn't have a shot on target untill very late in the game when already 1-0 (scored with a deflection) and having played against a chasing 10 men side for 20 mins. Was sat there wondering how on earth they are up their in the table.

I was away for the game 2 weeks before where we knocked them out of the cup so don't know what happened there.

I actually missed the Brighton away game ironically, given I live in Brighton, but by all accounts I read, and speaking to Seagulls supporting colleagues, we were pretty average but didn't need to be any better. Button made some good saves but Toral missed an open goal with a few minutes left. One of our poorer performances by all accounts but a poor game in general.

In the FA Cup game it was the reverse, a late Brighton smash and grab after we were profligate infront of goal. This season I'd much rather have exited the cup early and won the league game though.

Yeah I mean neither side cared about the cup. That open goal was one of the funniest things you will see, find the highlights.

It's widely reported today that Brentford will sack their Manager, Mark Warburton, even if they achieve the "impossible dream" of Promotion to the Premier League.

The Bees are currently 4th.

http://www.thesackrace.com/news/10th-february-2015/report-claims-brentford-will-sack-mark-warburton-at-the-end-of-the-season


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Absolutely absurd, even by Watford standards!

Statement to the contrary released by the club today, not exactly pouring cold water on the story

He's on a rolling 1-year deal so he may have secured a role with a bigger club and let the board know that he won't be re-signing?

Far from ideal timing, big game vs Watford tonight

Seems exactly what Southampton do tbf

They are planning ahead for the inevitable, certainly could have worded things better but the chap from Spain is very very highly regarded and with respect i doubt they could get him anyway even if in the Premiership.

They have a new stadium on the way Horsey - might give them a profile boost to get a bigger name on board?

logically if you accept that teams go up and will say "good enough for the championship, not a premier league talent" and look to upgrade their playing squad you'd say the same about a manager too?

Really don't know what to think. Warburton has been a real Benham man throughout his time at the club, and seemingly they have been on the same page regarding all parts of the 'project', as they so often put it. For Benham to then actively seek to replace him when he has proven to be an exceptionally capable manager seems very strange. Something doesn't seem right with the story - and perhaps it's the Warburton being surprised piece? Benham is one of the shrewdest owners in football and the idea that he'd go behind the back of a man with whom he built a youth competition before he was even associated with Brentford just doesn't sound believable to me.

This may not be the season Brentford go up and maybe I am blinded with optimism but I don't think this is a flash in the pan Brentford team. Benham, and Warburton, have put in place an infrastructure which will guarantee success at a high level for a long time. I definitely think this is a team going the way if Hull and Swansea rather than a Bradford.

I've been following football for longer than I care to remember, but I've never heard of an owner and a manager falling out because the owner wants to splash the cash and bring in reinforcements while the manager wants to stick with what he's got and spend nothing.

Arse about face if you ask me. #smallteaminfulham

Behave.

Next season, Brentford could be in the Premier League, & QPR in the Championship.

Just imagine. 

Brentford have confirmed that Warburton leaves at the end of the season

"he was given notice after refusing to sign some overseas players. "

Nick Goff ‏@nickgoff79 18m18 minutes ago

What Benham's dong at Brentford is going to be the most interesting thing to follow in all of football for the next couple of years.


Nick Goff ‏@nickgoff79 17m17 minutes ago

It's basically going to prove whether or not the best methods for professional betting can also be used to successfully run a football club.


Nick Goff ‏@nickgoff79 14m14 minutes ago

Seen a lot of "football's gone mad" tweets already. Owners who don't really get it - like the one at Wolves - that's mad. Benham is not.

Goff is a funny twitter poster.  Should spend more time getting his prices right so he can lay them for decent money than worry about successful methods of running a football team.  I hardly see how comparing running a football team successfully equates to being a successful football gambler or vice versa.  Gamblers are just trying to predict as accurately as possible via maths models what will happen on a pitch.   Having those models alone doesn't allow you to become a successful owner/manager of a football team.

For example i can price up dog races reasonably well but wouldn't have a clue how to train a racing greyhound.

analytics clearly have their place in sports but in the last few years my personal view is that people are getting carried away with them (esp in the NBA) with many people suddenly thinking they are the most important factor of all.  

Charles Barkley (NBA hall of famer) recently commented on this issue in the NBA - see link below.  Think he makes a lot of fair points about people getting too carried away with stats in sports.

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/02/charles-barkley-daryl-morey-beef

“The Rockets sucked for a long time, so they went out and paid James Harden a lot of money. They got better,” he said. “Then they went out and got Dwight Howard. They got better. …

“The NBA is about talent,” he went on. “All these guys who run these organizations who talk about analytics, they have one thing in common — they’re a bunch of guys who have never played the game, and they never got the girls in high school, and they just want to get in the game.”

In the same segment, he called out the Rockets’ defense. “Just because you’ve got good stats doesn’t mean you’re a good team defensively,” Barkley said. “They’re not a good defensive team. They gave up 118 points. No good team gives up 118 points.”

Saw him talking about that on a talk show, and it was pretty com :D

Club Statement

Brentford Football Club would like to update supporters on planned changes to the football management to come in to effect from the end of the season.

Club Owner Matthew Benham has met with Sporting Director Frank McParland, Manager Mark Warburton and Assistant Manager David Weir and the Club has reached agreement on terms for their departure.

The board, with Matthew’s approval, has made the decision that the trio will leave Brentford at the end of the 2014/15 season.

Mark and David will continue to work with the first-team on a day-to-day basis through to the end of the season – with the support and backing of Matthew and the Club’s Board – as Brentford push for promotion to the Premier League.

Matthew, a Brentford fan since 1979, who has owned the majority shareholding in the Club since June 2012, has decided to make changes in order to ensure the long-term prosperity of the Club.

Matthew and members of the Board have been in discussions with Manager Mark Warburton and other football staff about the future direction of the Club for many weeks, prior to stories appearing in the media last week.

As part of a remodelling of the Club’s football management, a Head Coach will be appointed to work alongside a new Sporting Director.

There will also be a new recruitment structure using a mixture of traditional scouting and other tools including mathematical modelling.

As part of the new recruitment structure, the Head Coach will have a strong input in to the players brought in to the Club but not an absolute veto.

The club wish to implement these changes in time for the next transfer window that opens this summer and to best ensure a smooth transition to the new recruitment model current Sporting Director Frank McParland has been placed on gardening leave.

The club want the new structure to be a long-term way of working which is independent of whoever is in the Head Coach role.

Frank, Mark and David have decided, following long discussions with Matthew that they feel unable to work under the changed structure and approach as it differs from their football philosophy.

Matthew Benham said: “I am a passionate Brentford fan and every decision I take is intended to be in the best long term interests of the Club.

“Some of the decisions taken to date have been easy and some, like this one, have been extremely hard.

Cliff Crown, Chairman of Brentford FC said: “Lots of clubs are criticised for short term thinking – we want to take a long term view and put structures in place that both the Board and the owner believe will be to the benefit of Brentford FC for years to come.

“The new structure is unusual in English football, although commonplace in other European countries and in other sports.

“We would have loved for Mark to stay, working within the new structure, but he feels that this is not right for him.

“We understand that completely and had to weigh up the benefits of the new structure against losing a fantastically successful manager before taking this decision.

“Recent press articles made it impossible to continue orderly discussions in private about the next steps for the Club.

“We regret this happening and fully appreciate that the uncertainty and often inaccurate speculation has been unsatisfactory for fans.

“We must now focus totally on the remainder of the season.

Matthew Benham also said: “Under Mark’s stewardship, Brentford have achieved a high league position and played football which is a joy to watch.

“It is difficult to seek to implement change, particularly when things appear to be going so well, but I am single minded in my resolve that we can leave no stone unturned in our quest for sustainable Premier League Football.

“Innovation, not increased funding, can be the only route to success for clubs such as ours, and I fully accept that innovation is never without risk.

“We are continuing to build a strong base for the future.

“Everything has been perfectly amicable between all parties and we remain friends.”

Mark Warburton said: “I will be forever grateful to Matthew for giving me the opportunity to be Manager of this fantastic Football Club and for what he has done for the Club since I have been here.

“It has been an absolute honour and a privilege to do the job and I have had the pleasure of working with a fantastic group of players and staff and have enjoyed the backing of a magnificent set of supporters.

“While I am disappointed that we have been unable to reconcile some key philosophical differences, I’m relieved we now have clarity.

“In my remaining time at the Club we shall move heaven and earth to get the promotion that the players, fans and Matthew deserve and going forward, I wish the club every success in its ongoing adventure.

“I have enormous respect for Matthew and his investment in the Club and he has the absolute right to run the club in the manner he deems most appropriate and beneficial.

“I have the privilege of managing an outstanding group of players, a group which has demonstrated a work ethic, a harmony and no shortage of quality.

“David and I, and indeed all the staff, remain totally focussed on supporting this squad of players and ensuring they are best prepared for each and every remaining fixture this season.

“Please be absolutely reassured that nothing will detract from our work for Brentford Football Club between now and the end of the season.”

TL;DR

Benham looks to be trying to implement a European/Southampton style management model and offered Warburton a role. Warburton didn't want to manage that way.

Seems fair and the story from last week makes sense at least.

Of course it's about talent.

But only 3 or 4 teams in England have got bottomless pockets to buy the football equivalent of Harden and Howard.

The rest have to make the most of the limited resources they have at hand.

Benham is attempting to do this and it is very interesting that the vast majority of tweets from Brentford supporters are broadly backing him, while from the outside pundits and supporters of other teams are mocking him.

Both he and Bloom (at Brighton) are massive odds on with me to get it right and have both clubs as solid members of the Premier League within 10 years.

Going the same route as the Oakland As in the MLB who are consistently competitive for the World Series despite have a bottom 5 wage bill.

As a Brentford fan, I implicitly trust Benham and back the decisions he makes. He saved the club, managed to get a new stadium organised and has put together the most talented squad I have seen in my 25 years as a fan. On top of that we now have a category A academy and are seeing talented youngsters from other clubs join our club rather than the other way round.

Warburton has done a fantastic job, oversaw promotion and has us sitting pretty in the Championship with a style of play which is really easy on the eye. I couldn't begrudge him anything. However, managers come and go, the football club you hope to be there forever. Benham has ensured that and looks to be continuing to ensure that forever will be a bright future.

Fascinating story unfolding at Brentford.

Got given "moneyball" a few years back. Must find the time to read it. Interesting that you compare with the A's there Keith as there is possibly a similar model running at Brentford.

It is funny how the ex pros are putting the boot in. Benham after all "has never played the game zzzzzzz". It sort of reminds me of poker boom time when Internet kids started turning up at casinos and were thought to not have a clue.

At the end of the day, the only real way to be competitive is to fling a load of dosh at the club. That isn't an option for most clubs so the options  are to accept your lot or to try something different. I genuinely hope Brentford win the lot.

I think Bentham's decision is a good one. I'm really not looking forward to the tired narrative when they don't reach the playoffs/ have a poor start next year/ sign two bad players.

some result today that.

Some funny comments from the gambling/coke addict/ failed Walsall manager Merson on soccer Saturday today about benham.

Didn't fancy giving us the comments?

;D

My previous comments sorta agreed with him to an extent but he is so stuck in the drinking culture from his era it is unreal.  It's amaxing Sky have him as a 1.01 to attend on soccer Saturday. It can only be for entertainment for his terrible ability to state foreign players names correctly. He offers nothing more than that to sky.  By contrast I thought cottee was really good today given his chance.  It's a mug fest though soccer Saturday and merson will always appeal.

The results flash up on the screen for everyone, so the rest is a sideshow, and I don't think most of them are there for their technical abilities.

Merson. Probably needs the money in 2015 more than cottee given their respective habits so does what he is told whereas cottee seems to say it as it is.

I think that Merson is the best of the soccer saturday guys for entertainment value which is largely their remit imo

This.

They are there to entertain, not give cutting edge analysis.

I like Merson and Kammy.

Jeff Stelling is the guvnor obviously.

It's a damning indictment that I consider Merson to be the one who makes most sense when discussing football. He actually argues a point that differs from the standard opinions sometimes (like United haven't turned a corner at all; they're massively overachieving). Agree with it or not, at least it's a reasoned opinion. Would help if he could pronounce names, yes.

Charlie Nicholas meanwhile must have info on the boss. The James Brown toy would be more insightful.

Kammy...listen carefully...a footballer heading a ball into a goal on a football pitch in a football match is not unbelievable. If it is actually unbelievable, your job as the person to convince the audience of what just happened is redundant.

Merson still has the one of the best lines in the programme's history:

Merson:  "Good work on the wing by Autovic".
Stelling:  "It's "ANautovic"
Merson:  "What?  Is there more than one of him?"

Stelling is brilliant, a real craftsman of a presenter

can't stand any of the "pundits" on soccer saturday, many of whom can barely speak English. i appreciate its not meant to be detailed analysis but its simply too basic

but you could put four goats in tuxedos next to stelling and it would be better than 3 hours of final score on the bbc with garth crooks (particularly), claridge and hartson plus whichever hapless presenter has to throw to them for comments

simply unwatchable, with so little imagination in production, presentation and punditry that it hurts

Honestly think the whole thing would crash and burn without Stelling.

I can't bear to watch the midweek version without him.

This is a really good article about Benham, Brentford and FC Midtjylland. Well worth a read.

http://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2015/feb/22/brentford-mathematical-modelling-denmark

I've no idea if it is true, but it is repeatedly rumoured in the back corridors of Sky that Stelling is their highest paid Presenter, & by some way.

Been doing it a good while, too, & from what we see generally, he does not appear to be the sort to fritter money away, so he must be worth as much as Piggott. Almost.

Looking forward to you retiring from next door Tony so that you can finally give us all the gossip from behind the scenes.

I'm not at all surprised he's top paid presenter.

But how would his wages compare to Henry, Neville and the boys?

No idea.

I must stress it is only rumour, but the number I repeatedly hear for Stelling tops the rumoured Henry numbers. I have no ideas what Neville gets, but he must be getting plenty, he is top notch.

Football is a monsta part of the Sky Business plan, & extremely lucrative business. Just as the players have reaped huge rewards, so have all the peripheral players, Agents, TV sorts etc. 

Hope it's true, because Stelling is abs comedy!

He also has his own drinking game ;)

Just once I'd like him to say

"The ball is in the back of the net at Anfield/Highbury/Old Trafford"

and the goal actually counts.

Very interesting read.

Thanks for posting.

Excellent article,  I believe Celtic coach Ronny Delia is big on analysis and super fitness and would like to see him developm more of these ideas but Celtic fans might be a bit fickle for it.

@OptaJoe: 42 - Brentford had 42 shots vs Blackpool tonight, 10 more than any team has managed in a Championship game this season. Relentless.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-pDsTAVIAAI5ch.png:large)

The chairman is sacking the manager who produced these stats!  Maybe Warburton should get some credit.

Wonder if they got a bollocking for 'under performing' last night and only winning 4-0.  The article in the guardian says they are not 'results orientated' and assess performances on the stats so surely that was an under performance given they produced so many shots on target to the worst team in the league?

Impressive stats anyway - but just saw that Blackpool got a 1st half red card.

1/3 of total shots on target, and 30% of those converted.

Surely that has to be above the norm?

Imagine the Blackpool keeper ought to have improved, given the amount of work he does every week :D

looking at Brentford's run in, it's only the Derby & Forest games that could prove difficult     .....      surely got a great chance for the Play Offs, at worst?

Fulham 1 - Brentford 4.


HUGE result for The Bees, in so many ways.

Today was a fun day. Bring on the playoffs!

Well done to the bees.  What a bunch of clowns Derby are though!

I've been following the Bees, first as a supporter - never missed a game, home or away, for the best part of 20 years - & since then via my all too comfy armchair.

Tonight must be their biggest game in all that time. (First leg play off at home to 'Boro).

Would love to see them do well, & I'm pretty sure they will go for it.

It's on Sky Sports, & will be watching for sure.


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+1.

Of all the nights I agreed to accompany a friend to The Stoop for a non-entity of a game against Bath. Booked in for 3 months so can't let him down. Will be doing my best Likely Lads impression to try and avoid the score until I get back. Fear it will be nigh on impossible.

The outlook is not good.

Boro scored a simple goal first half, then a defensive error gave the Bees an equaliser & some hope after some neat work by Andre Gray, but Boro nicked the winner in injury time.

Seemed a fair result on balance, even though Brentford dominated possession (62%), & there seemed no doubt in my mind that Boro had far more class than Brentford, especially Bamford & Tomlin.

Is that Tomlin chap the fella who used to be at Posh, aka "Fatty Tomlin"? If so, he still seems to carry a bit of weight, but he's well tricky.

So, Brentford need to win the away leg, it's that simple.

It might just be a good thing to miss out this season, & continue building good foundations, & of course, the new Stadium. Neither the team nor the current Stadium, much as I've loved it down the years, are up to Premier League standard yet.

If they miss out, they'll be 0 from 8 in play offs, quite some record that. 

Marinus Dijkhuizen ‏@MDijkhuizen9

I am very proud to be Brentford FC's new head coach! Looking forward to work hard together to achieve the ambitions of this folk club.#Bees



The new Brentford manager's 15th place Eredivisie finish looks a *lot* better when you put it in financial context per
‏@MartijnHilhorst

Only Excelsior needed less than 100k per point

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CGaJGgiWQAAZhsc.png)

I'm assuming budget includes transfers and salaries?

If so, running a top division club in one of Europe's big leagues on less than £3 million per year is almost unbelievable.

That's the equivalent of spending £0 on transfers and paying a 20 man squad an average of around £150k per year (or £3k per week).

No wonder Excelsior and Dordrecht finished in the bottom 3!

Excelsior stayed up Keith. Finished 4th bottom and actually had a Newcastle like end to the season - no wins in 9 - after being comfortable for most of the year. Excited to see what this new chap will bring to the equation. Strangely I'm more excited about Rasmus Ankersen's appointment as DoF. Seems like a really bright mind, and someone who understands exactly how to manage resources to achieve maximum value. Apparently we've also picked up Ted Knutsen as head of player analytics. He was the head of football trading at Pinny for 7 years so certainly has an interesting background.

Brentfords progression is definitely going to be interesting to watch next season. Have a feeling a few other clubs try to do similar things(Watford, Brighton) but Brentford are much more up front about it for better or worse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwqZiyZYB00

It also ignores that the first 50 points or so (random number) are way way cheaper to achieve than the extra 15. ie the cost of the first fifteen points achieved costs a lot less than the last fifteen points. Diminishing returns.

It all ended badly.

After the odd decision to dispense with Warburton (doing very nicely in Scotland now, tyvm) Matthew Benham used his cashout facility yesterday to sack Warburton's successor.




(http://atthematch.com/uploads/articles/35822-benham.jpg)

Well technically Warburton did not renew his contract. He was offered a new deal but declined as he didn't want to work in the new system. Lots of misinformation on that point.

I feel that Marinius was hard done by. Brentford have an horrendous injury list at the moment - 5 probable starters out until Christmas - and had to cope with two of last year's star men being sold in the first week of the season. We could only name 6 subs, including two goalies, for our game against Boro a couple of weeks back. The results haven't been great but given the circumstances, I don't think they could have been significantly better. Still, in Benham we trust.

Yes, that's a fair point. After I wrote it, I realised it was incorrect, but I thought I may get away with it. ;)

How is the new Stadium coming along, still on track?

CPO hearing conducted a couple of weeks ago with judgement expected next week. Similar situation to Spurs except the company involved with Brentford isn't an independent business but a firm specifically up with the sole purpose of buying bits of land in areas which could be used for large scale commercial developments. Essentially their business model seems to be to try and hold developers to ransom when it comes to purchasing land needed to complete such developments. Judge expected to see straight through it and ground expected to be broken in Feb, with a two year construction time.

The media coverage of this is hillarious

The guy next to me loves sky sports news (sadly)

They have Tony cottee (one failed spell at Barnet) and Tony gale telling all and Sundry that Brentford are run by someone  like Vincent tan.

Here is Martin Samuel's take on the dismissal:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-3253957/Brentford-owner-Matthew-Benham-obsessed-stats-come-wrong-formula-success.html

The mark of a good writer is knowing what a rhetorical question is and whether you're supposed to answer it.

Brentford were buying by numbers, too, Moneyball style. Yet did anyone research the probability of their new centre half lasting 45 minutes of a Capital One Cup tie against Oxford United, and this being his only contribution to the season? No. Such information does not, and cannot, exist.

My eyes are bleeding reading all that.  An idiot gets paid for writing about something he doesn't really understand. 

Samuel is Sportswriter of the Year don't you know..

He is often very good IMO but too off-piste here and a fail.

I actually agree with that. But this is like me trying to explain how a telephone works.