blonde poker forum

Do you use them?

Do you use them in certain circumstances (to protect part of a potential win? to minimise an almost certain loss?) (on accumulators or not on singles?)

If so, why?

If not, why?

ty

Do you use them?  No

Do you use them in certain circumstances (to protect part of a potential win? to minimise an almost certain loss?) (on accumulators or not on singles?) - No

If so, why? - n/a

If not, why? - Just bet a smaller amount in the first place so you don't feel the need to throw away ev in your original investment and/or leave the last leg of your acca out if you are just going to give it away by locking in.  Otherwise just lay the outcome yourself on bf which will be a smaller loss of ev than using the cash out button.  I have no idea what the margins are for the firms on cash outs but i can't imagine them being small as they are designed for lazy/rec punters.

ty

No.

Because they're terrible value. If I got windy - on a golfer, say, who I'd bet at long odds and was now much shorter going into the final round - I'd lay him back on the machine. (I've managed to resist doing this up to now but it would be the lesser evil).

"But sometimes, you just have to take the money and run, Ray"

Don't do it Tighty - just giving money away.
Also don't lay potential winning bets off, unless you are sure the odds are wrong the other way. Very tempting to lock up a profit, but the reality is it is lining the bookies pockets, most of the time.

Greatest con in the history of bookmaking. Amazing how many people use it.  As mentioned above, I have no idea why people add an extra leg to an acca if they plan on cashing out, all they are doing is giving a huge % back to the bookie. Heard so many times down the pub how people add either the sunday afternoon game or the monday night one, with the explanation being that if they get that far they will be able to cashout.

As others have said it is just a big con, often with little relationship with the underlying odds.

I have placed bets on, watched the price halve and still been offered a cash out that is less than my original stake. 

People in the middle of accas simply have no idea of the value they are giving away, so bookies take advantage.

I remember when Betfair started this and thinking the value wasnt that great, but others have taken it to a whole new level.

I had a bet £10ew at 20/1, it was now a 2 (horse race) prices on bf were roughly 1.83 vs 2.10( mine was 2.10 give or take a couple of digits) the cash out option was £81.

Based on what I see on Twitter everyday people love the cash out button, if only they knew.

is there any evidence, or possibility, that use of the cash out button can help the maintenance of an account?

(ie you use it, you are recreational, not value conscious etc etc)

How does that work with the place part of the bet which has already won?  Assume you are only cashing out the win part of the bet there for £81?

I would imagine it would help.  Setting fire to money on bookmaking accounts usually helps to keep them open longer term.

I saw a bloke on Facebook who had a 17p !!! correct score 5 fold.

He cashed out for £9 after three won.

The other 2 obviously copped.

Would have won £8000.

extrabet (anyone remember them? - fixed odds firm with ig index) started the whole cash out thing 10 years ago but it never seemed to take off at all.  No idea why it took 10 years for all the major fixed odds boys to get involved with it as it isn't a new concept.  Only fixed odds firm who i never had an account closed with and beat during my arbing days and they were always willing to lay huge bets even on prices which were decent commission free arbs.

http://www.betting-directory.com/bookmaker-extrabet.php

Bit of after timing, but I suggested it when I worked at Blue Squirrel.

The tech dept said it was "far too complicated to implement".

I should have put a patent on the idea.

Have cashed out once, misclick cashed out the Fulham top six bet a couple weeks ago, seems to have saved me some money heh, def wouldn't do it deliberately, obv still made a loss on the bet:p

Have tried to think of a situation where it can be used to the punter's advantage (or at least not to a big deficit)

On a particular weekend, I want to back Chelsea and Man United, each at evens, so a 3/1 double and my £20 will get me £80 back. 

Now, say I include Barcelona for the evening kick off at Evens, too, in a 7/1 treble. 

When Chelsea and United win, come 5pm, I have £80 rolling on to Barca, with a possible £160 to come back if they win as well. Ray offers me £110. Tasty. 

What Raymondo doesn't know is I don't really fancy Barca and I was only putting them in to get the extra £30. 

Now, the bookie has "made" £10 in EV because he should have paid me out £120 for my 50% shot, but I only ever intended to cash out, so I've made £30 more than I would have done, if I'd backed the double.

Avvabangonnat. 

When given this problem, I couldn't think of a sensible answer as to why it was a bad idea mathematically. I commented that doing it a lot might jeopardise the account, but that was all I could think of. 

Anyone?

Sounds foolproof

Why would Ray offer you £110 when your current bet is only worth £80?  Confused?   If he pays you out at £120 pre barca the bookie makes barca a 1/3 shot not an even money shot (ie 40/120)???

At Betfair the thinking behind the Cashout calculation was Deal or No Deal. When the stakes get big the banker never has to offer anywhere near the player's EV in order to get his hand snapped off.

Ah of course! I have £80 riding on to an even money bet, so my expected return is £80. What an idiot!

Just did even money for ease.

Ok. So if Barca were at home to Levante and 1/3, same question.

Point is, why not add a late kick off shortest priced jolly possible to each acca and cash out when your intended acca comes in?

because, particularly for acca cash outs, everyone has a sum where the physical amount of money over-rides your sense of EV?

Your bet would be worth £120 and ray would offer you £110 so you would lose £10 and he would win £10.  There isn't a spot that you are looking for otherwise bots would be doing it all day every day.  Not sure why this is confusing you!

99% of punters who have accas rolling onto a last selection wouldn't have a clue what the current value of their bet is/ev calcs etc they just see big numbers and collect.

Exactly - there's comes an amount where the offer is big enough that someone would rather burn EV to lock it up - same principle as how a skilled poker player playing FTW can get himself a great deal at a final table full of players who are outside their normal bankroll.

Well, I get the £10 under EV point but why isn't betting on the treble and cashing out after two a more effective way of betting the double?

If you ONLY want to back the double, why not include Celtic v Ross County at 1/3 and snaffle a higher return for no extra risk?

If the bookies are happy with a tenner of EV, why shouldn't I be delighted with £30 in my actual account?

That's what's confusing me.

How are you getting a higher 'return' by adding a false last leg?  I don't understand what your thought process is?  The price of the last leg of the acca doesn't make any difference.

You wouldn't get offered £110 in that spot..

B365 offer you your money running on in the bet less 10%.

So in the example above your offer would be £72. If you place a £1 lucky 15 with them for example, they offer you £13.50 cashout as soon as it's placed before a leg is run.

Double returns £80
Treble offers cash out at £110 after two legs.

I've always been wired that if you're being offered a product in an advert by a bookie, it's costing you money. I'm just trying to square this, though.

Ah, right.

This explains it. It's not a bad system for the punter; it's a TERRIBLE system for the punter.

Just to be open, I will be presenting this as my own maths and knowledge when I see the chap who asked me this later in the week. More magpie than thief.

Cheers.

you have an even money treble.  first 2 legs win at evens and evens.  Your £20 treble is now effectively £80 running onto the last even money shot.  Why would a bookmaker ever offer you £110 for the bet at this stage?  He is effectively backing the last even money shot himself at 4/9 for £110 to win £50?  If Ray is willing to do this then by all means accept the cash out.  I never much doubt you will get this opportunity from the dodgy cockney.

Yes, sorry, arb. Changed the third one to a big odds on shot because I spotted the error.  As Mr Hollis says above, the offer wouldn't be for more than the £80 anyway.

Might be why I have working accounts (don't tell Chompy)

Expanding on Tal's idea a little.

Some books offer a bonus for 4 folds/ 5 folds etc..

I wonder if putting in a fake final leg in this spot might add to the cash out offer?

Would imagine the bonus would only be added once the legs were actually settled as results.  ie early cash out would mean they were not added. 

Wouldn't even be considered at all.

I've never been in a position to cash out in the first place tbh

If you are tanking the cash out for utility purposes (rather than a change in perceived value) you placed the wrong bet in the first place.

Never used them. Have layed a single result in a multi start time accumulator. Was waiting on AC Milan and layed them at 1/20 after they went 1-0 up to take the hassle out.

My mate used it once waiting on west ham to draw. Took £100 for a £2000 bet at 2-0 down and they equalise in 94th minute. He shut his account in utter turmoil. Losing with 94th min goals doesn't cause that level of upset! I will never use them.

I'll use sometimes for example if I have an acca that pays 300 and there's 10 mins left and it's offering me 280-300. Takes the sweat out of it and means you can now rail the other side for max pleasure. Happens rarely tho

If it's offering you 280 for a 300 payout, I would guess you've got a circa 99.9% chance of winning the bet.

You wouldn't flush £20 down the toilet, why give it to a horrible bookmaker?

Spending £1 to £20 to avoid the horrible feeling of losing the lot is understandable. I never use cashout personally, but often bet/lay myself into a guaranteed profit if it's some tournament tip I've followed from here.

Because there are times when you can get screwed- would rather lock it up

How do you know the bookmaker is "horrible"? He might be a nice bookmaker.

Never met one, although he/she might theoretically exist.

Did a 4 timer with WH.

3 came in last night, one match tonight.

Offer is £85.51....potential winnings is shown as £171.12

However the team odds to win on WH is 11/10.

So if I cash in and then put the £85.51 on at 11/10 .....I win more??!

Am I missing something?

Has the team's price changed from when you originally placed the bet?  I would imagine the difference relates to a price change on the last leg.  Can't see any other reason how that could happen.

No, same price....so I'll just cash out then

Does the potential winnings include your stake in the calculation as it is not total returns just winnings?  That might be another reason for the difference?  Hard to believe Hills would make an error as obvious as this in something that is computer driven.

Went with it just to see.

Credit of £85.51 given

Bet placed now pays £179.57

result!

It is a bit odd, as it is just a piece of software, no "opinion" goes into the Cashout figure.

Maybe it is because Ripple is a supersized ice-cream in the Marky bracket?

V good result, guess there must be a programming error somewhere, seems more likely than them deliberately overpaying someone?  Guess they could have a strategy of generosity to encourage people to use it, though as others have said, there seems little need in such a strategy when people will just flap and cash in regardless of the EV.

almost certain  :)

xx

I looked at the cashout on BF yesterday for this very scenario and was offered £105ish.   I suppose they'll say that this was done just before the last but I doubt anyone would cash out in that situation.  What a pile of crap, totally misleading.