Bookmaker cash outs

[Tal]

Have tried to think of a situation where it can be used to the punter's advantage (or at least not to a big deficit)

On a particular weekend, I want to back Chelsea and Man United, each at evens, so a 3/1 double and my £20 will get me £80 back. 

Now, say I include Barcelona for the evening kick off at Evens, too, in a 7/1 treble. 

When Chelsea and United win, come 5pm, I have £80 rolling on to Barca, with a possible £160 to come back if they win as well. Ray offers me £110. Tasty. 

What Raymondo doesn't know is I don't really fancy Barca and I was only putting them in to get the extra £30. 

Now, the bookie has "made" £10 in EV because he should have paid me out £120 for my 50% shot, but I only ever intended to cash out, so I've made £30 more than I would have done, if I'd backed the double.

Avvabangonnat. 

When given this problem, I couldn't think of a sensible answer as to why it was a bad idea mathematically. I commented that doing it a lot might jeopardise the account, but that was all I could think of. 

Anyone?

[RobS]

Have tried to think of a situation where it can be used to the punter's advantage (or at least not to a big deficit)

On a particular weekend, I want to back Chelsea and Man United, each at evens, so a 3/1 double and my £20 will get me £80 back. 

Now, say I include Barcelona for the evening kick off at Evens, too, in a 7/1 treble. 

When Chelsea and United win, come 5pm, I have £80 rolling on to Barca, with a possible £160 to come back if they win as well. Ray offers me £110. Tasty. 

What Raymondo doesn't know is I don't really fancy Barca and I was only putting them in to get the extra £30. 

Now, the bookie has "made" £10 in EV because he should have paid me out £120 for my 50% shot, but I only ever intended to cash out, so I've made £30 more than I would have done, if I'd backed the double.

Avvabangonnat. 

When given this problem, I couldn't think of a sensible answer as to why it was a bad idea mathematically. I commented that doing it a lot might jeopardise the account, but that was all I could think of. 

Anyone?

Sounds foolproof

[arbboy]

Have tried to think of a situation where it can be used to the punter's advantage (or at least not to a big deficit)

On a particular weekend, I want to back Chelsea and Man United, each at evens, so a 3/1 double and my £20 will get me £80 back.

Now, say I include Barcelona for the evening kick off at Evens, too, in a 7/1 treble.

When Chelsea and United win, come 5pm, I have £80 rolling on to Barca, with a possible £160 to come back if they win as well. Ray offers me £110. Tasty.

What Raymondo doesn't know is I don't really fancy Barca and I was only putting them in to get the extra £30.

Now, the bookie has "made" £10 in EV because he should have paid me out £120 for my 50% shot, but I only ever intended to cash out, so I've made £30 more than I would have done, if I'd backed the double.

Avvabangonnat.

When given this problem, I couldn't think of a sensible answer as to why it was a bad idea mathematically. I commented that doing it a lot might jeopardise the account, but that was all I could think of.

Anyone?

Why would Ray offer you £110 when your current bet is only worth £80?  Confused?   If he pays you out at £120 pre barca the bookie makes barca a 1/3 shot not an even money shot (ie 40/120)

[AndrewT]

At Betfair the thinking behind the Cashout calculation was Deal or No Deal. When the stakes get big the banker never has to offer anywhere near the player's EV in order to get his hand snapped off.

[Tal]

Have tried to think of a situation where it can be used to the punter's advantage (or at least not to a big deficit)

On a particular weekend, I want to back Chelsea and Man United, each at evens, so a 3/1 double and my £20 will get me £80 back.

Now, say I include Barcelona for the evening kick off at Evens, too, in a 7/1 treble.

When Chelsea and United win, come 5pm, I have £80 rolling on to Barca, with a possible £160 to come back if they win as well. Ray offers me £110. Tasty.

What Raymondo doesn't know is I don't really fancy Barca and I was only putting them in to get the extra £30.

Now, the bookie has "made" £10 in EV because he should have paid me out £120 for my 50% shot, but I only ever intended to cash out, so I've made £30 more than I would have done, if I'd backed the double.

Avvabangonnat.

When given this problem, I couldn't think of a sensible answer as to why it was a bad idea mathematically. I commented that doing it a lot might jeopardise the account, but that was all I could think of.

Anyone?

Why would Ray offer you £110 when your current bet is only worth £80?  Confused?   If he pays you out at £120 pre barca the bookie makes barca a 1/3 shot not an even money shot (ie 40/120)

Ah of course! I have £80 riding on to an even money bet, so my expected return is £80. What an idiot!

Just did even money for ease.

Ok. So if Barca were at home to Levante and 1/3, same question.

Point is, why not add a late kick off shortest priced jolly possible to each acca and cash out when your intended acca comes in?

[TightEnd]

At Betfair the thinking behind the Cashout calculation was Deal or No Deal. When the stakes get big the banker never has to offer anywhere near the player's EV in order to get his hand snapped off.

because, particularly for acca cash outs, everyone has a sum where the physical amount of money over-rides your sense of EV?

[arbboy]

Have tried to think of a situation where it can be used to the punter's advantage (or at least not to a big deficit)

On a particular weekend, I want to back Chelsea and Man United, each at evens, so a 3/1 double and my £20 will get me £80 back.

Now, say I include Barcelona for the evening kick off at Evens, too, in a 7/1 treble.

When Chelsea and United win, come 5pm, I have £80 rolling on to Barca, with a possible £160 to come back if they win as well. Ray offers me £110. Tasty.

What Raymondo doesn't know is I don't really fancy Barca and I was only putting them in to get the extra £30.

Now, the bookie has "made" £10 in EV because he should have paid me out £120 for my 50% shot, but I only ever intended to cash out, so I've made £30 more than I would have done, if I'd backed the double.

Avvabangonnat.

When given this problem, I couldn't think of a sensible answer as to why it was a bad idea mathematically. I commented that doing it a lot might jeopardise the account, but that was all I could think of.

Anyone?

Why would Ray offer you £110 when your current bet is only worth £80?  Confused?   If he pays you out at £120 pre barca the bookie makes barca a 1/3 shot not an even money shot (ie 40/120)

Ah of course! I have £80 riding on to an even money bet, so my expected return is £80. What an idiot!

Just did even money for ease.

Ok. So if Barca were at home to Levante and 1/3, same question.

Point is, why not add a late kick off shortest priced jolly possible to each acca and cash out when your intended acca comes in?

Your bet would be worth £120 and ray would offer you £110 so you would lose £10 and he would win £10.  There isn't a spot that you are looking for otherwise bots would be doing it all day every day.  Not sure why this is confusing you!

[arbboy]

At Betfair the thinking behind the Cashout calculation was Deal or No Deal. When the stakes get big the banker never has to offer anywhere near the player's EV in order to get his hand snapped off.

because, particularly for acca cash outs, everyone has a sum where the physical amount of money over-rides your sense of EV?

99% of punters who have accas rolling onto a last selection wouldn't have a clue what the current value of their bet is/ev calcs etc they just see big numbers and collect.

[AndrewT]

At Betfair the thinking behind the Cashout calculation was Deal or No Deal. When the stakes get big the banker never has to offer anywhere near the player's EV in order to get his hand snapped off.

because, particularly for acca cash outs, everyone has a sum where the physical amount of money over-rides your sense of EV?

Exactly - there's comes an amount where the offer is big enough that someone would rather burn EV to lock it up - same principle as how a skilled poker player playing FTW can get himself a great deal at a final table full of players who are outside their normal bankroll.

[Tal]

Have tried to think of a situation where it can be used to the punter's advantage (or at least not to a big deficit)

On a particular weekend, I want to back Chelsea and Man United, each at evens, so a 3/1 double and my £20 will get me £80 back.

Now, say I include Barcelona for the evening kick off at Evens, too, in a 7/1 treble.

When Chelsea and United win, come 5pm, I have £80 rolling on to Barca, with a possible £160 to come back if they win as well. Ray offers me £110. Tasty.

What Raymondo doesn't know is I don't really fancy Barca and I was only putting them in to get the extra £30.

Now, the bookie has "made" £10 in EV because he should have paid me out £120 for my 50% shot, but I only ever intended to cash out, so I've made £30 more than I would have done, if I'd backed the double.

Avvabangonnat.

When given this problem, I couldn't think of a sensible answer as to why it was a bad idea mathematically. I commented that doing it a lot might jeopardise the account, but that was all I could think of.

Anyone?

Why would Ray offer you £110 when your current bet is only worth £80?  Confused?   If he pays you out at £120 pre barca the bookie makes barca a 1/3 shot not an even money shot (ie 40/120)

Ah of course! I have £80 riding on to an even money bet, so my expected return is £80. What an idiot!

Just did even money for ease.

Ok. So if Barca were at home to Levante and 1/3, same question.

Point is, why not add a late kick off shortest priced jolly possible to each acca and cash out when your intended acca comes in?

Your bet would be worth £120 and ray would offer you £110 so you would lose £10 and he would win £10.  There isn't a spot that you are looking for otherwise bots would be doing it all day every day.  Not sure why this is confusing you!

Well, I get the £10 under EV point but why isn't betting on the treble and cashing out after two a more effective way of betting the double?

If you ONLY want to back the double, why not include Celtic v Ross County at 1/3 and snaffle a higher return for no extra risk?

If the bookies are happy with a tenner of EV, why shouldn't I be delighted with £30 in my actual account?

That's what's confusing me.

[arbboy]

Have tried to think of a situation where it can be used to the punter's advantage (or at least not to a big deficit)

On a particular weekend, I want to back Chelsea and Man United, each at evens, so a 3/1 double and my £20 will get me £80 back.

Now, say I include Barcelona for the evening kick off at Evens, too, in a 7/1 treble.

When Chelsea and United win, come 5pm, I have £80 rolling on to Barca, with a possible £160 to come back if they win as well. Ray offers me £110. Tasty.

What Raymondo doesn't know is I don't really fancy Barca and I was only putting them in to get the extra £30.

Now, the bookie has "made" £10 in EV because he should have paid me out £120 for my 50% shot, but I only ever intended to cash out, so I've made £30 more than I would have done, if I'd backed the double.

Avvabangonnat.

When given this problem, I couldn't think of a sensible answer as to why it was a bad idea mathematically. I commented that doing it a lot might jeopardise the account, but that was all I could think of.

Anyone?

Why would Ray offer you £110 when your current bet is only worth £80?  Confused?   If he pays you out at £120 pre barca the bookie makes barca a 1/3 shot not an even money shot (ie 40/120)

Ah of course! I have £80 riding on to an even money bet, so my expected return is £80. What an idiot!

Just did even money for ease.

Ok. So if Barca were at home to Levante and 1/3, same question.

Point is, why not add a late kick off shortest priced jolly possible to each acca and cash out when your intended acca comes in?

Your bet would be worth £120 and ray would offer you £110 so you would lose £10 and he would win £10.  There isn't a spot that you are looking for otherwise bots would be doing it all day every day.  Not sure why this is confusing you!

Well, I get the £10 under EV point but why isn't betting on the treble and cashing out after two a more effective way of betting the double?

If you ONLY want to back the double, why not include Celtic v Ross County at 1/3 and snaffle a higher return for no extra risk?

If the bookies are happy with a tenner of EV, why shouldn't I be delighted with £30 in my actual account?

That's what's confusing me.

How are you getting a higher 'return' by adding a false last leg?  I don't understand what your thought process is?  The price of the last leg of the acca doesn't make any difference.

[MattyHollis]

You wouldn't get offered £110 in that spot..

B365 offer you your money running on in the bet less 10%.

So in the example above your offer would be £72. If you place a £1 lucky 15 with them for example, they offer you £13.50 cashout as soon as it's placed before a leg is run.

[Tal]

Double returns £80
Treble offers cash out at £110 after two legs.

I've always been wired that if you're being offered a product in an advert by a bookie, it's costing you money. I'm just trying to square this, though.

[Tal]

You wouldn't get offered £110 in that spot..

B365 offer you your money running on in the bet less 10%.

So in the example above your offer would be £72. If you place a £1 lucky 15 with them for example, they offer you £13.50 cashout as soon as it's placed before a leg is run.

Ah, right.

This explains it. It's not a bad system for the punter; it's a TERRIBLE system for the punter.

Just to be open, I will be presenting this as my own maths and knowledge when I see the chap who asked me this later in the week. More magpie than thief.

Cheers.

[arbboy]

Double returns £80
Treble offers cash out at £110 after two legs.

I've always been wired that if you're being offered a product in an advert by a bookie, it's costing you money. I'm just trying to square this, though.

you have an even money treble.  first 2 legs win at evens and evens.  Your £20 treble is now effectively £80 running onto the last even money shot.  Why would a bookmaker ever offer you £110 for the bet at this stage?  He is effectively backing the last even money shot himself at 4/9 for £110 to win £50?  If Ray is willing to do this then by all means accept the cash out.  I never much doubt you will get this opportunity from the dodgy cockney.