blonde poker forum

Claw's post has reminded me of a very hypothetical question I've been thinking about.

WSOP main event, hand 1, you look down in the big blind and see 2 beautiful red aces.

UTG moves all in followed by UTG+1, UTG+2 and eventually the whole table has called and it's you to act.

2 questions

1- call or fold?

2- if you're folding, at what point did you make that decision?

for me, there's no way I'm making the call. I'm considering the fold when the 3rd lot of chips hit the middle and my mind is made up by the 4th lot.

 ;scarymoment; you're asking for trouble here

I would probably thin about folding after the third guy goes all-in.

This is just a twist on an issue that has been endlessly debated and it is pretty pointless to resurrect it.  You will just end of with 2 camps, one says that you should never give up +ev and the other says that you can give up +ev if you believe that your skills are superior enough to take advantage of situations that will occur later.

I have heard the debate before, but not all have so, please, don't be so dismissive. Usually the debate questions what you would do if faced with a single all in pre flop when your holding Aces. I would call. This is a different kettle of fish now, I think I would fold.

Definite call for me, either you want to win or you are just trying to stay in. Me I would want to go for it and if you go out cest la vie.

yes I want to win, that's why I fold. no idea of the exact percentage but the odds of winning this pot with everyone in are too small for me to consider the call.
the real question for me is at what point people make the decision to fold

Posibly at the second or third all in

I think a easy fold,

AA i a favourite over 1/2 opponents but a whole bloody table you are now an underdog

Fold and wait for a much better situation

Its difficult to answer a hypothetical question. if this happened you would have to believe that you were up against AA,KK,KK,QQ,QQ,JJ,JJ,10 10  etc but one of the other mugs would probably be calling with 44 and hit ... PASS.

Even if there is no other AA, there could be AK AK in there meaning that you couln't hit a set.

In the following situation, the aces are third favourite. Which hand do you reckon has the best chance of winning?

 Ac Aspades
 Ahrt Kh
 Ad Kd
 Kc Ks
 Qc Qs
 Jc Js
 Tc Ts
 6h 5h
 
Also, which hand has the least chance?

just been trying a few of these. It's hard to get the AA below 35% and it comes up above 50% with a few combinations

ok in yours it's in bad shape
if the suited connector that it's tempting to throw in pass you can get it to 60%+

if ur only way of making chips is by calling all in coin flips, then u call. If u know how to play the game then u fold everytime.

It's a different kettle of fish in that it is never going to happen at least the original debate is a possibility.

You'll need to win some coin flips to win the WSOP!

Show me a 6000+ runner tournament you have won without winning a coin flip? You might find it difficult....

Assuming the other people all have the requirement of calling off their stack hand one with a big pair or AK(and theres no naughty players in there playing 56d), your equity is likely to be somewhere between 30 and 50% getting 9-1.

Ok this is what Paul Phillips has to say about folding AA to a table all moving allin hand 1. Most would agree he is one of the top tournament pros......

Ah, the mystical attachment to 50%.

Let's say you will magically be offered a series of heads-up 54/46
matchups, such as QQ vs. AKs, and you get the good end of the stick
each time.  Three times you can double up your entire stack with
the best of it -- even MORE than a 50% chance!

  46% of the time you are busted after the first.
  71% of the time you are busted after the second.
  86% of the time you are busted after the third.

So this "amazing" opportunity leaves you with 8x your stack 14% of
the time and busted the rest.

Whereas calling with AA left you with 10x of your stack 31% of the
time and busted the rest.

How's that 50% sound now?

But wait, you're better than that.  You'll always get your money in
with 60/40 edges, such as AKo vs. QTs.

  40% of the time you are busted after the first.
  64% of the time you are busted after the second.
  78% of the time you are busted after the third.

So you get 8x your stack 22% of the time.  Still not looking so hot
compared to a 31% chance at 10x.

You're even BETTER though.  You always get in as a 2-1 favorite,
such as KK vs. ATs.

  33% of the time you are busted after the first.
  56% of the time you are busted after the second.
  70% of the time you are busted after the third.

Finally we're close to the AA situation in terms of probability
of survival, though recall that we had 10x stack improvement with AA
and you only get 8x with the "three double-ups" approach.

Is any of this clear yet?

The only way around calling with AA after nine people move in is if
you think you are so good, you never have to go all-in, and that if by
some awful twist of fate you do end up all-in, you will always have
the most dominating situation imaginable (e.g. always pair over pair.)


It's not even close.


So folding the AA here is roughly the equivalent of folding KK to an allin from A rag three times. Are you good enough to do this??

Was looking for magic like this from the old master of the ridic folds himself mystery 721 when i stumbled on the op.


Great line gatso, your the best.

thanks james, you're great too

I didn't understand poker in 2006, nor did anyone else judging by the replies

now it's 2009 I could probs find the call tbh

[  ] but you understand now
[  ]  ;)

I think M3Boy still passes Aces on level 1 vs 1 player!

Fortunately I always turn up late for tournaments so I would never face this ridiculous and hypothetical situation.

Great post Dan  ;tightend;