The Wynn Schedule has now been published;


https://www.dropbox.com/s/8f949eiqi7swl7q/WSOP2017.xlsx?dl=0

Wow Thanks Tony

Poker Schedules for The Rio . The Venetian . Planet Hollywood .Aria . Bellagio . Wynn .Golden Nuggett & Binnions   all on one Excel Spread Sheet

Vegas Must Have

[if Valtteri wins the title, Mercedes automatically win the constructors though]

Based on what you've pointed out, I would probably agree that "Valtteri Bottas to win the drivers, Mercedes to win the constructors" @ 7/1 isn't value. Had forgotten Valtteri was 6/1 for the title, that in itself is madness.

I do think I made a valid point that if Valtteri wins the title, Mercedes automatically win the constructors though. If a driver as talented as Lewis is your "second driver" .. that's quite some points haul  

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Highly likely it could happen I agree but not worth the risk as an unforeseen  Withdrawal ,Injury , Disqualification or Ban could hit Hamilton for example , hence no value in the double

[Haas to finish 7th in the constructors championship]

NOTE FOR TIGHTY: Only the bottom three suggestions are not Sky only.

Right, bet suggestions -

First of all, Sky Bet pre-season stuff as I had requested odds on a lot of scenarios. Note, I'm not suggesting everything I requested odds on - depends on the price they're offering of course.

- Haas to finish 7th in the constructors championship @ 3/1. I'm predicting them to finish 7th, and I'd say their realistic range is 6th-8th, 3/1 seems like a good spot to me given the confidence I have. I'll be doing £25.

- Valtteri Bottas to win more races than Lewis Hamilton in 2017 @ 4/1. While I do think Valtteri will take the title, I am expecting Lewis to have more wins. That being said, 4/1 seems far too high in equal machinery. £25 for me (was limited).

- McLaren to score no points in 2017 @ 8/1. Given how fundamental their engine problems are (both power & reliability) .. this is a real possibility and 8/1 is too high, I would take 6/1+. £12.50 (was limited).

- McLaren to finish last in the constructors championship @ 9/1. If the previous bet comes off, this one almost certainly will too. Max bet (£11.11 for me).

Other bets I've done, but not formal suggestions due to the "multiple scenario" nature that you all hate (understandably!):

- McLaren to have at least 1 car not be classified in the 1st 5 races & no points in the first five races @ 4/1. This one baffles me a little bit .. at least one car to not be classified is almost certain. So this is basically 4/1 on no points in the first five races. Max bet, no question - especially bearing in mind that no engine developments will be seen in the first four races (flyaway races, engines already on route). I'm limited to £25.

- Valtteri Bottas to win the drivers, Mercedes to win the constructors @ 7/1. I don't see a scenario where Bottas wins the title and Mercedes don't. 7/1 is massive. Max Bet. I'm limited to £14.29.

- Mercedes to finish 1-2 in the drivers championship, McLaren last in the constructors @ 11/1. Feels reasonable at this price. Limited to £9.09, wanted £10.

- Valtteri Bottas to win the Australian GP and the drivers championship @ 28/1. That price, really? Someone could work out the Maths for me on that, but I would suggest 3/1 for the Australian GP and 2/1 for the title were generous prices. Aware that the book on Bottas is already quite large though. Max bet. Limited to £3.57.

- Mercedes 16+ wins, Force India to beat Renault & Sauber top eight in the constructors @ 40/1. Even I can tell this one isn't value, but I do expect it to be a good sweat. Max bet £2.50, wanted £5.

- Both McLaren drivers to not be classified in the first five races of the season @ 40/1. Given that they haven't actually done a race distance yet .. and they're not going to have any upgrades until race five, I feel this is more possible than 40/1!

https://www.skybet.com/formula-1/specials/requestabet

Now, Australian GP specific bets:

Let's stick with Sky first.

Both McLaren drivers to not be classified @ 5/4. Over EVS on this seems bonkers to me. They'll be lucky to get through the three practice sessions without a reliability failure, let alone the race. Going to exercise caution with the stake here though because safety cars and red flags could help them drop the power rating down and save the engine somewhat. £30.

Now, the more traditional bets:

Race Winner - Unsure. Now, there's value here for sure, but I'm struggling with a suggestion. I would say Lewis is overpriced at 11/8 and Valtteri is overpriced at 6/1. Valtteri is "more overpriced", so I guess we do him? Maybe we do both? Open to suggestion on this one actually. If I were pricing the market up, Lewis would be 10/11, Valtteri would be 13/10.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/australian-grand-prix/winner

Top Three Finish - Daniel Ricciardo at 21/10 with the exchange. Red Bull are the tricky team to place pace wise, we know they'll be 2nd or 3rd, but we really have no idea about the gap to/from Ferrari as they were the team that ran the least optimised package in testing (they ran very few aerodynamic parts, meaning they have a lot to debut this weekend). I would have said Daniel should be 19/10. Suggest £10.

Points Finish - Kevin Magnussen @ 5/2 with Bet Stars and Hills. The midfield looks to be quite close, if there's an opportunity to score points, Kevin will be in the mix on talent alone. 5/2 seems a little too high. £10.

Not To Finish The Race - Lance Stroll @ 13/8 with 365 and Sky Bet. Lance really struggled to keep the car on the track during testing. It's unfair that he got so much negative press for this; he's a rookie trying to control the fastest F1 cars ever with huge amounts of wheel torque - it's perfectly understandable. Anyhow, Lance's offs appeared to be caused by getting on the power too early/hard while the car is still unbalanced from the prior corner. I don't know what it is about the Melbourne track, but it makes you feel like you can get on the power early, but that's often a mistake (particularly in the final sector). I remember Raikkonen having an off here around five years ago for this very reason. Suggest £10 on this.

thanks for the time spent putting up your selections Peter

Im sure the guys will confirm either way the value bets

this one for example   - Valtteri Bottas to win the drivers, Mercedes to win the constructors @ 7/1. I don't see a scenario where Bottas wins the title and Mercedes don't. 7/1 is massive. Max Bet. I'm limited to £14.29.

With the Ferrari and Red bull teams being live theres no point doing a double with Bottas at 7-1 when he is 13-2/6-1 outright


I do like this one though      Valtteri Bottas to win more races than Lewis Hamilton in 2017 @ 4/1. While I do think Valtteri will take the title, I am expecting Lewis to have more wins. That being said, 4/1 seems far too high in equal machinery. £25 for me (was limited). 4-1 Bottas  looks decent value if the cars are similar


Good Luck with your bets

http://news.sky.com/story/brighton-bombing-victim-lord-tebbit-wishes-mcguinness-an-eternity-in-hell-10809470

Classy.

An IRA bomb nearly took his life so probably a tad bitter.

[if you do win the profit is bigger .]

What's people's thoughts on the £-$ rate obv very low at the moment at 1.19/1.20
Reports in the daily mail today suggest it could drop by 8% more as brexit negotiations proceed
Will it stop you going ?
Will you play lower buy ins
Do a bit less - my plan
Take a bit ? More ££ -also part of my plan 50/50 with do less

I don't want to not go but it's pretty bad ,as in the worst rate I've seen in 13 years of going
I'm thinking slow down n chill by the pool a bit more

It is pretty brutal

I can only go for a week, and my virgin points are worth 33% less or so, flight prices seem to be 50% higher and hotels are 50% higher.  All figures give or take.  So last year, using points, I managed to spend just over a grand on nice hotel, nice flights (premium one way, upper back).

Now I can't even work the damn virgin website, but even if I could find economy flights using points, am still going to be struggling to get close to last year's costs.  

Guess I'll find a sale and get there, but not massively optimistic right now.  Starting to think I am going to be happier playing at DTD and on the GUKPT.  Only wish there were decent sized plo8/nlo8 tournaments outside vegas.

It is pretty brutal , I agree

I was going to follow up with... the accommodation and flight costs which Dave has highlighted have gone up for sure. They are somewhat disguised because you generally book them in £ sterling.

In addition there are still your higher  food & living expenses over there.

The USA tournaments are priced up regardless of how strong or weak the pound is but of course if you do win the profit is bigger .

[What's people's thoughts on the £-$ rate obv very low at the moment at 1.19/1.20]

What's people's thoughts on the £-$ rate obv very low at the moment at 1.19/1.20
Reports in the daily mail today suggest it could drop by 8% more as brexit negotiations proceed
Will it stop you going ?
Will you play lower buy ins
Do a bit less - my plan
Take a bit ? More ££ -also part of my plan 50/50 with do less

I don't want to not go but it's pretty bad ,as in the worst rate I've seen in 13 years of going
I'm thinking slow down n chill by the pool a bit more

Its a very good question and one that is creating a lot of discussion among poker players at present in regards to booking this year.

In 2015 I got 1.56 $ to the pound , in 2016 it was 1.37 , The Brexit vote actually happened whilst I was over there and the pound dropped again to about 1.20 which was great if you had won $ .

The easy answer to the question could be play the lesser buy ins but the reality is more likely to be " Im here once a year for the  WSOP big prize pools so lets play"  .

The solution could be to sell more action but the "locked " exchange rate has to be visible.

As regards the main event it now costs at least £8k sterling so a lot of people are saying they will only play if they have had some decent binks ( ie in profit )

That said...punters gonna punt

[Might Bite]

Just about to fire off down to Micky O' Malley's for a pre racing brekkie, and then back to knock it in

Neptune - Shattered Love

RSA - Might Bite antepost, and ADO in my only antepost treble left with Altior & Yorkhill tomorrow.

Coral - Tombstone when Elliott made noises about the handicaps, so got a bit of value pie there, and also backed Peregrine Run.

Champ Chase - Fox Norton,  ew but will just enjoy Douvan hosing again, I'd imagine.

Cross Country - Cantlow a/p and did Ballyboker Bridge once fina decs out.

Fred Winter - Had backed Dinaria Des Obeaux, so disappointed not to see him here. Might back a random with the money I got back from DDO, or any suggestions welcome

Bumper - Backed Carter and Western a few months back, so either of those will do.

Good luck gents!

Oi Oi  ,  Oi  Oi  and Oi Oi

Nice One Mark

[14-1]

If we can get any 6-4 can we bet £100 on Yorkhill please

Good luck guys

Yorkhill 7-4 @ Bet Fred and Tote

 14-1 for new accounts up to a tenner at Paddy Power ( paid in free bets)..money back in free bets if second

https://promotions.paddypower.com/enhanced-odds-link-9?utm_medium=Partnerships&utm_source=2139736&utm_ad=308935975&btag=11062720_20170316101208750750000&AFF_ID=11062720&

decent offer for small punters

offer closes at 1pm

If we can get any 6-4 can we bet £100 on Yorkhill please

Good luck guys

Yorkhill 7-4 @ Bet Fred and Tote

If we can get any 6-4 can we bet £100 on Yorkhill please

Good luck guys

[If Rangers had stayed in the SPL would Corals of hunted the guy down to give him back is £100 ?]

I'm afraid there's many disagree. Rangers went bust, sold assets to another company included their 'share' which every premier league club has. Clubs voted against new company being allowed to enter a team in the league in rangers place. Rangers took part in the vote to let the new club in (unsuccessfully voted yes).
The new club then applied for membership of the sfl and were queue jumped into the 3rd division.

There's no way that was relegation, but too many vested interests want the new rangers to be the old one so a great myth arose.

The judge just punctured it. Was critical of both the punter and corals trying to play the rules.

Im not disagreeing about the chain of events leading to Rangers demise its about the morals & intent of the bet

The relevant question is this

If Rangers had stayed in the SPL would Corals of hunted the guy down to give him back is £100 ?

The answer is 100 % no they would not  FACT  hence the bet was live

Bear in mind the bet was authorized so it hadn't slipped through the net thru a renegade cashier

The bottom line is they got greedy for £100 , badly fucked up on the price and cried like babies using every trick in the book when they got caught   (totally out thought by the punter)

Pathetic

If you read the judge's ruling, they accepted the bet on the basis that Rangers would not be relegated. They weren't relegated. They were effectively disqualified from being in the SPL. They were then accepted as new members of the football league and had to start again in the bottom rung.

If the club had been renamed as New Rangers and the same happened, would you be saying they were relegated? That's effectively what happened when they were purchased by Sevco. The bet was settled correctly at the end of the SPL season.

I read the Judges ruling but that doesn't mean he is correct and lots of people dont agree with him ! Sounds like a revelation


Are we now saying the judge has ruled in favor of the bookies so he is now more knowledgeable  about the betting / bookmaking industry than everybody else ?

They free rolled the guy and cried like babies....regardless of the ruling

[If Rangers had stayed in the SPL would Corals of hunted the guy down to give him back is £100 ?]

I'm afraid there's many disagree. Rangers went bust, sold assets to another company included their 'share' which every premier league club has. Clubs voted against new company being allowed to enter a team in the league in rangers place. Rangers took part in the vote to let the new club in (unsuccessfully voted yes).
The new club then applied for membership of the sfl and were queue jumped into the 3rd division.

There's no way that was relegation, but too many vested interests want the new rangers to be the old one so a great myth arose.

The judge just punctured it. Was critical of both the punter and corals trying to play the rules.

Im not disagreeing about the chain of events leading to Rangers demise its about the morals & intent of the bet

The relevant question is this

If Rangers had stayed in the SPL would Corals of hunted the guy down to give him back is £100 ?

The answer is 100 % no they would not  FACT  hence the bet was live

Bear in mind the bet was authorized so it hadn't slipped through the net thru a renegade cashier

The bottom line is they got greedy for £100 , badly fucked up on the price and cried like babies using every trick in the book when they got caught   (totally out thought by the punter)

Pathetic

  See you in Vegas

this Coral case is fun isn't it?

the defence about the article saying "rangers were relegated" being that because it was written by a freelance it wasn't the company's view, even though it was published under a coral logo!

Click to see full-size image.

He has lost.

This is extremely concerning and contradicts the long-standing position that professional gamblers aren't in trade and don't pay tax.

I am persuaded that having regard to the evidence of the pursuer himself he was not a consumer as defined by Article 3 of the 1999 Regulations.  When placing the bet he was entering a contract for the purpose of his trade, business or profession as a professional gambler.  In reaching that conclusion I accepted all of the arguments put forward by Mr Sandison which clearly pointed to him, being at the material time, a professional gambler; that was his business.

https://www.scotcourts.gov.uk/search-judgments/judgment?id=c72b2da7-8980-69d2-b500-ff0000d74aa7

Corals are a fucking disgrace , free-rolling the guy for £100

the judges are not much better siding with them .

" its void because hes a professional gambler "  so what ?  its a  paid on bet placed on the guys opinion regardless of his " status "

just even more lol / pathetic especially after it was accepted by Corals head office.

Shameless Wankers !

All the best Tony, hope you're back on the grind soon!

Old man had those stents whacked in about 12 years ago, and they're just the job.

This , same with my dad

See you back soon  xx