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1  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: too passive? on: March 07, 2014, 10:13:19 AM
I'm pretty sure we have close to 100% AK combos here. Getting AK in pre is going to be very thin, and I doubt we often raise flop. Since we can also have TJ AA KK I really don't think we often get c/r on the turn by bluffs. I think we should be b/f turn for more or less the reasons mondeo says.

As played I think river check is fine, I think you'd be far more likely to get c/r bluff here, since our range has become very capped, obviously there are less draws to extract money from, whilst the range of worse hands that call is very narrow, especially after checking back turn which weights our perceived range to medium strength showdown hands.
2  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: QQ in that same bloody 20e sat on: February 24, 2014, 02:30:28 PM
Think you can fold to the cold 4 and be reasonably happy, there are times you are folding the best hand but you are largely beat. It's probably very close equity wise and I think your edge will probably be bigger finding other spots, AK I'm always folding here to do anything else seems awful. Lets not forget this is a satellite.

Once you peel the cold 4 I don't think you can fold, even though their ranges just got stronger. You just have too much of your stack in the pot with too good a hand.
3  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Incredible 100 JJ decision on: February 16, 2014, 01:28:13 PM
I definitely usually open here, but on or near the bubble I would open jam preflop. You want to minimise your chances of going broke before cashing.

Once you get 4 bet, especially by the bb with no one to act behind, you can never love it, but I don't think you can fold without a very specific read on the opponent.
4  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: $82 TCOOP, first hand.... on: February 14, 2014, 06:07:08 AM
Definitely do not 3bet pre oop this deep with this hand. If you do then size it bigger, around 160-200, but personally I'm very much enjoying being able to press call for 20 chips with this hand.

Sizing on flop and turn is far too small and river is an easy c/f. 

Don't think we can c/f flop with this hand though.
5  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Sunday $109 Rebuy FT... on: February 14, 2014, 12:05:55 AM
cib with AK does give him the option of folding vs OR though, who will only be jamming super strong, basically AA/KK and maybe a few stubborn QQ.

Also whilst he is giving you an attractive price preflop most of the hands you go ahead and peel will be Ax heavy and pot to stack will be so shallow that chip ev wise he will be committed to pretty much any flop. I don't see you folding too many of your value pairs to a jam that you wouldn't 5b rip so shouldnt change much icm wise here, if anything since he looks so strong you may be as inclined to hero fold to the 4b.

In game people don't always factor correctly for ICM - I mean I doubt many people have a true understanding of it without doing calculations for specific spots (I certainly don't) - So I wouldn't totally discount AK but for the reasons you gave I think you can certainly take some combos out of his range. 
6  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Sunday $109 Rebuy FT... on: February 13, 2014, 06:11:14 PM
why can't he have AK btw?
7  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Sunday $109 Rebuy FT... on: February 13, 2014, 04:11:33 PM
Yeah, would be very happy to get this in vs this OR, but only option I don't like is jamming on the cold 4 bettor. You look very strong and as good as he is I would be surprised to see him 4b fold this early on in the final in this spot, so I don't like jamming, but don't think it can be horrible.  I can understand a peel with the price you are being given, but I think ICM considerations lean towards me preferring a fold. Very much a fyl spot though.
8  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: River decision on: February 13, 2014, 03:44:59 PM
Call? Can have qj, jt, qt as bluff combos along with back door diamonds such as Kqd he can be value raising any 9 that he's peeled with and you've already said your turn bet is small so he can definitely be raising light for value or raising as a bluff to get you to fold a weak range because you bet small.

I'm assuming you lost to why you posted but don't worry mate it's cooler IMO.

Agree 100%

Turn size is nice too, hand is wp assuming you called river.

+1, anyone raising?

I think it's too thin, we're probably slightly behind his value range (not nearly enough to fold though), and when we raise the weaker parts are largely going to fold.

Although if you mean as a bluff then there may be some merits to it I guess against the right opponent, as there aren't too many full house combos he can have as we block the 9 and we should fold out the straight vs some people.

Seems pretty image dependent, would be a value/bluff merge, kinda funky, but I prefer just calling I think.
9  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Crush? on: February 13, 2014, 03:33:28 PM

I think it means keep clicking til the other guy gets bored and jams or folds.

I agree with Dan, peel and take it to the streets your equity isn't the best against hands that want to get it in, and for the occasions the villain is bluffing (and he may turn some weak hands into bluffs on some runouts) he will be firing most of the cards we get there on.
10  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Super Tuesday 40 left turn spot vs Faroe Islands on: February 13, 2014, 03:29:59 PM
think anything but getting this in is really bad. Yes fish get deep in the 1k all the time, yes he is a real big one. Has way too many, 2pair, sets, X which gives him a pair, ul gg

This, so very much this.

And what Dan said, I'm a nit and I wouldn't want to live in that world.
11  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Super 50 preflop spot on: February 13, 2014, 01:26:52 AM
yeah I jam too, wouldn't love getting it in vs the opener if nobody had peeled, would be very close from your description of him, but with the dead money in there it has to go in now I think.
12  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Super Tuesday 40 left turn spot vs Faroe Islands on: February 12, 2014, 01:46:42 PM
gg good run.

Just jamming, never peeling on this board texture with pot to stack so shallow
13  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: River decision on: February 12, 2014, 01:29:09 PM
I'm assuming you lost to why you posted but don't worry mate it's cooler IMO.

A spoonful of sugar always helps the medicine go down
14  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Is this an easy fold on the turn? on: January 31, 2014, 04:09:59 AM
Just a cooler, preflop seems okay.
The flop bets pretty big if we want to induce / not fold out a bunch of his range

On this flop texture this is the very least we should be betting this deep, even in a 3 bet pot.
15  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Calling range? on: January 13, 2014, 12:32:02 PM
Hard to imagine him ripping  17 bigs with QQ+ so I'm not feeling very inclined to fold TT, fine to fold AQ though.

TT+, AK for me

Exactly this
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