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1  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Deep in low stakes mtt - turn decision when effective stacks are 1.3x pot on: June 12, 2011, 03:47:35 AM
How bad is c/ring AI on turn?

He may well bet/fold a bunch, and by c/ring we give ourselves a chance to take the initiative with some FE, and if we get a call we have equity v pretty much all of his range. Also, if he checks back he can still hit a bunch of cards that help us, and if a totally blank river comes we can go c/f or c/c depending on how we range him on river.

Also, betting flop and checking turn just looks crazy weak, and given the BI of the MTT I think villain is likely to spazz/fold a bunch on turn.
2  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: bubble burst qq on: June 12, 2011, 03:34:46 AM
The fact that's it a $5 comp actually makes this kinda interesting imo. Given the 3b size, I would say in a $5 MTT, unless he's been a total maniac then he's unlikely to be 3b folding when he makes it that amount, but regardless of that we do have the Q and the Q obviously. Short stack makes not a huge amount of difference here, and I expect to see AQ, AK and prolly TT+ and perhaps even wider from 3ber, unless we also have information that the opener is a total nit, pretty sure I all in here.
3  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: River Decision in the DTD £300 on: June 12, 2011, 03:30:57 AM
Iso seems fine, why not take control of the pot v a weak passive fish.

I feel like we need to attempt to range his double float. You have a decent amount of history on him, so if he believe he's capable of floating 2 streets on this board to spazz river and look super strong, then we can go c/c. If we feel like he has some sort of Kx hand, or perhaps even a 2pr hand on the river, then I feel like we may well have to just pile river for value. I like the turn bet because it's set up a PSB on the river, so if we somehow got there w/ the J then it's gg us, he has no reason to put us on the J, so I feel we get a bunch of value a hand such as KQ, which would make sense in this spot given his line.
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