I have taken Bubba to win this now 2.12 looks pretty big too me with the way he has been playing.

What are the thoughts on the Easter Monday football action?

I like a few bets, but I don't want to hijack a great thread by just posting everything I like the look of. 

That said I am going to give a mention to one bet I really do like tomorrow. 

In the relegation battle at the bottom of the Championship  I think Bristol City are massive @ 6/4 against Coventry. 

Coventry are bad, Bristol City aren't much better but there has been some promise in their last few games and they desperately need the points.  Having turned over Notts Forrest in their last game I think confidence will be high.

I would suggest a max bet with Bet Victor.  The betfair price at the mo is 2.48 but with commission going with the trade seems the best move.

If you look into the stats you may think my confidence is misplaced, but the price stands out for me.   

That one landed much easier than I expected.  Well on the result anyway.  I never managed to watch the full game as I have my eyes on the golf.

@TightEnd beginners luck :-))

Harrington could be leading the amount of putts for birdie he's had.

Can't believe how uncertain he looked with a 3ft put at 7th for a birdie.  I could have sunk that one. 

I am not that confident on betting the golf, the markets look like they take big swings to me. 

I do however like the look of some of the 2 ball action today, but my knowledge is not is not near some of those posting in this thread. 

That said one bet stands out to me and that is Harrington @ 11/10 to beat Stenson. 

Harrington seems to me to have turned a corner this week and has done just enough to keep himself in contention and he is a top match play player so I really think he will play well today. 

Thoughts?

good shout. hope you backed him, he's swinging great.

I did but I adjusted my stake.  I hope Valencia can keep Real at bay tonight now.

Real home matches average just over 5 goals in La Liga. Valencia are in poor form, if the league started Jan 1, they'd be in 17th. Real have had an extra days rest since their respective midweek european matches.
I think you've hit all three of your '+/- goals' tips Jenny? That makes me nervous as I'm on over 3 goals in this match @ 8/11 on Bet365

Edit: Actually over 3.5 @ 1.9

For me Valencia are a team that raise their game for the bigger matches.

Yes Madrid have scored a lot of goals, but I think sometimes results can be skewed by the quality of opposition.  There is no doubt that La Liga is the best in the world but some of the teams in the bottom half are dross.

But this season there are teams near the bottom who should not be in that position and teams pushing for Euro places who are playing above expectations.

Valencia as a team don't score a lot of goals but they don't concede much either.  Look at their goal difference for a team sitting in 3rd place its pretty bad, but much of that can be credited to how they nick results.  

I just felt that for their to be 4 goals in this game the rice was a good bit out at 17/20 and clearly I am not the only one when that price has swiftly moved to 20/21 and was even bigger when I was off line.  

That lay is now 1.97 now Jenny. Still value?

Sorry Tikay I was offline for a bit having tea.  

The game kicks off at 8:30.  I wouldn't lay it now at 1.97,  would think that's much closer to the correct price.  

The Real Madrid v Valencia game in the La Liga clash tonight looks like a tight game to me Tikay, I don't mean tight as in the result - Real should win - but I think the markets react wrongly to Madrid's form.  Mourinho has got a good bunch of players playing as a team but i think the price in the goal markets is wrong.

Valencia although not as good as they once were will give a good account of themselves and I would be happy to lay the over 3.5 goals. 

You can lay overs for 35.71@ 1.84 on Betfair for a max loss of £30.  Personally if you don't mind risking a bit more I would be happy to press up further. 

I see Madrid winning this 2 - 0 or 3 - 0 so it looks a nice opportunity. 

I am not that confident on betting the golf, the markets look like they take big swings to me. 

I do however like the look of some of the 2 ball action today, but my knowledge is not is not near some of those posting in this thread. 

That said one bet stands out to me and that is Harrington @ 11/10 to beat Stenson. 

Harrington seems to me to have turned a corner this week and has done just enough to keep himself in contention and he is a top match play player so I really think he will play well today. 

Thoughts?

Regards the Arsenal v Man City game and the point made earlier about there being goals.  

That was my first thought too I then looked at the prices and I was less keen on that.  Man City need to win to keep alive having a shot at the title.  For that reason  I can see Mancini nitting up and tryng to contain Arsenal and nick one on the counter.  

Arsenal will play out a game that will see them launch wave of attack after attack but so often they try and score the perfect goal which results in less goals for them than there should be.  

Additionally, the super sunday games tend not to live up to expectations.

I'd tend to air on the side of caution though and back under 3.5 goals @ 4/9.  

A little late but in the Man United v QPR game I have backed under 2.5 goals at 3.0 on betfair with the intention of laying the bet off in play, this has been a bet that has worked quite well for me in TV games this season.  

That as a bit strange.  in the Man United game, I was definitely unlucky with that penalty call and Man United scoring early.  Subsequently the price drifted and I was unable to lay off my bet for what I was looking at I then tried to get matched at 1.58 as time went on as the price had dropped to 1.62 and Paul Scholes scores, at this point I am hating life and decide to let it roll. 

So I am now free rolling the Arsenal game.  Its a good day from here on in no matter what. 

Regards the Arsenal v Man City game and the point made earlier about there being goals.  

That was my first thought too I then looked at the prices and I was less keen on that.  Man City need to win to keep alive having a shot at the title.  For that reason  I can see Mancini nitting up and tryng to contain Arsenal and nick one on the counter.  

Arsenal will play out a game that will see them launch wave of attack after attack but so often they try and score the perfect goal which results in less goals for them than there should be.  

Additionally, the super sunday games tend not to live up to expectations.

I'd tend to air on the side of caution though and back under 3.5 goals @ 4/9.  

A little late but in the Man United v QPR game I have backed under 2.5 goals at 3.0 on betfair with the intention of laying the bet off in play, this has been a bet that has worked quite well for me in TV games this season.  

Think we ended £40 down on the afternoon.

Jenny is on fire! I would not have done the double at any price, but, had I been in time, would have done both as singles.

Well done eso, too.

I hope it is okay to post this link on here but I thought it was quite interesting and can link into this thread, and its certainly something I would like to see discussed further.

http://www.pokerplayer.co.uk/sports-betting/news/57/bets_the_bookies_hate.html

I have read every post on this thread and I am sure I have learned lots, however at the outset one of the first bets posted was a lucky 15 bet each way.   Strange bet to take on if your opposed to doubles?

In the past I have spewed money on lucky 15's and lucky 31's but now the maximum bet I have is a treble, some times I will do them each way if its horses.

In football bets I would mostly bet singles, doubles around 30% of the time and trebles around 10% of the time. 

Hi Tikay,

I read earlier in this thread that you were opposed to doing multiple bets as you see the value in betting singles only.  Although this probably reduces variance I would also think that you were missing out some value in the long term.  I am a novice at this gambling lark but I read lots and study lots and slowly I am getting there and believe i have found a few decent judges to follow who often advocate Singles/Doubles on football with the occasional treble.  

Today from those that I follow.  One bet really sticks out for me.

Over 2.5 goal double in Southampton v Portsmouth and Coventry v Peterborough.  

In the first game taking the combined goals scored and conceded by Southampton on average there are 3 goals in each game they have played this season and by looking at the Portsmouth stats there record shows an average of 2.25 goals per game.   Both teams need a result for different reasons so will both be going at it hard.  Southampton have been overtaken at the top by Reading and West Ham are only 3 points behind in 3rd.   At the other end of the league Portsmouth who have started to get some decent results of late are only 5 points from safety and will be fighting all the way given some of the form of the other teams down there.  Infact had it not been for a 10 point deduction they would most likely be safe.

In the second game Coventry need points to secure survival in the championship and although the average number of goals in their games is generally quite low I am expecting that they will come under heavy pressure from Peterborough today who on average have 3 goals in each match they have played.   I expect that if Coventry are to win this game they are going to have to score a minimum of 2 goals as I don't see Peterborough not scoring here.  

The double should price around the 3.0 or 3.1 mark.  

Good luck.  

That Irish lady really annoys me.  Also have very little time for the Asian bloke or Ricky Martin. 

I kind of like the Scottish girl. 

its a really poor year, the contestants aare 2nd class at best and none are very memorable.  they lack a charisma. 

Regards,

JM86

very nice indeed, well done.

30 minutes more notice next time 

Thank you. 
 
I have had a smaller bet on another one that runs later (4:40 Folkestone).  I think and remember I am a complete amateur and a smallish bettor that the odds on Muzhil have been greatly inflated due to the each way money that has come in already for Schoolmaster and Hunt Mistress. 

I have bet £2.50 e/w at 28/1 and I have had a £2 win bet at 50 on betfair.