Received money from Scotty

Thanks for running the comp, look forward to the next one

Good luck to those in the fight for 2nd tonight

Made payment this morning to account details Tikay provided. Let me know if any problems

Cheers

Im struggling to move a file over from my laptop that contains some reasoning behind why I went Pepe, but the jist of it was he has 4 of his 8 cards this year have come against A Madrid and Barca which is the tougher teams to play and he is not on the brink of a suspension if he got one tonight

I took 5/6 anytime and 10/1 first, I don't really know how some of the others in Tips for Tikay put together prices the way they do. Tend to just go for what I think will and look to get the best price I can. Does anyone think these prices are too far wrong or how to explain. Is it more a case of just going to betfair and using that as a guide

Looks like the start of a diary to me mind.

You might be right there fella, not quite sure what I'm doing, going forward it should only be my own brand of betting logic or not as the case may be. If no one reads it that's fine.

late getting the first post up so good start, as I was saying too much above.

almost didn't get the bet on Pepe to be carded

Wait till you hear my views on the Toon at some point

Hi

I've been a lurker of Tips for Tikay for few months now. Was called out by Tikay for stalking/being a voyeur and not interacting on the site, posted and glad I did. Even had a look at some of the threads on poker hand histories thinking I might try and learn to play NL the right way after exile, but my head hurt after reading them, and I remembered why I don't/didnt enjoy playing online poker, just not thinking in the same way you winning players are. Will restrict NL Hold Em for when I'm playing drunks or they are providing conversation that is worth me losing the money for.

It was easy posting the first bet (Man U -1 v Norwich , Giggs first game) as it was a bit of a gimme. I could have posted Man U -2 as had that bet on too, but wanted to get the first one in as a winner with no worries.

Second time trying to post, was much harder to try and put down why I was betting the way I was. Ended up babbling away, and running short of time. I posted something close to the kick off time stating what I was gonna do, but with no bet recommended. It ended up winning but not really for the reasons I was stating, whole thing wasn't done great on my part, improvement is needed. Will post it up at some point to try and explain my thinking better and to give example of what went wrong.

So I'm going to try and post here as shouldn't be using that thread to type out my thoughts and clog it up, when I'm not even 100% if my logic is sound. I'm a bit behind the times with this internet stuff. The couple of posts I have made on this site are about my only contribution to the internet. So need to practice so that when I have a bet I'm happy with I can post it in 'Tips for Tikay' properly and confidently.

Unfortunately for those that read any of this thread, there is gonna be potential for a lot of nonsense and it would be foolish to assume I'm not gonna be wrong in a lot of the things I give as reasons, especially at the beginning. Hopefully with time and some posts, I'll be able to articulate my thoughts better though and will start posting more winners than losers.

This isn't something to read, if your looking to find winning tips, don't put your own money on anything in here would probably be your best bet.

If I am the only one who reads and posts here that's fine. If someone with more knowledge sees something I write and can point out some of my mistakes that's great too, before or after the fact. Long past the time when I thought I knew everything, as I get older it seems more true than ever.

Overall aim is to be able to post some winners for Tikay and all the people on there who've helped me without knowing. I've not actually placed that many bets off of the thread, but have definitely taken a lot from it and would be good to pay them back, and given me the belief that money can be made sports betting.

Not sure if all that was needed but felt weird to start a thread off with 'this is not a tip but Pepe to get a yellow card tonight versus Bayern Munich, with some reasons why I thought it was a bet. And to those who read to the end and are now thinking 'I wont get that time back', apologies.

 

I will definitely start to get more involved. Its a good fun to talk about betting and potential selections.

This thread is full of both experts and great characters.

I wish I get a chance sometime to meet some of you fellas.

Will second the above.

Hate Mondays, always fall asleep as soon as I walk in the door from work since I started watching the American sports. Fell asleep while looking at prices for Newcastle players to be carded and I missed the game, probably not the worst thing though.

Not sure I should post on the Newcastle bets to be honest, definitely can be looking with blinkers on , try to leave there games alone as much as I can now. I did back 'Draw No Bet' last week though, and thought it was a good bet. I will post in the Newcastle thread I saw at some point to try and articulate my thoughts on them. At least then some of you can see how far detached from reality my thinking is regarding them. Hope you got on the bets in your post though.

I'm still hopeful we aren't just going to roll over and put up no fight on final game of season. I have no action on Liverpool either way or any of the top teams but would be good to see Newcastle do FRED a favour if needed, after the last couple of games. I do worry its more likely to be a game to back a Liverpool penalty and them to score a couple of first half goals though.

I really like the NBA bet that was talked about earlier regarding Spurs, hoping I'm still awake to see it cross the line

Just went to look at the spreadsheet to see if it was Tonji who tipped Riesch, I'm pretty sure it was, but noticed a bigger mistake in my post.

The Camel started the thread, I thought it was Chompy, my mistake.

Thank You The Camel

Right back to the day job of delivering Bills and Junk Mail with some UKIP promotional garbage this week too unfortunately.

[Have bolded the parts for favs as realised after typing, that this is too long, NO useful betting information contained in this post]

Morning Kev, & & good to have you aboard.

You had a lovely reception from the regulars & Elders, as well as Chompy.

I guessed a Newcastle supporter, but "chemical"? Not "Chemical Brothers" inspired, I suppose?

You a poker player, if so, have we ever crossed swords @ the table?

By tradition, we auto place your first Recomend, butttttttt.....

Arbboy suggested a different method of getting with United, so the decision goes back to you now.

Incidentally, I 100% agree with your logic, & I'm pretty sure Old Trafford will be rocking & rolling this afternoon, & Norwich are going to get a proper old-fashioned battering.  3-0 minimum, imo.

Have bolded the parts for favs as realised after typing, that this is too long, NO useful betting information contained in this post

We have definitely played a couple hands of online poker together Tikay, would have been around 4 years ago in a small stakes NL Hold Em tourney. I did load up Sky Poker to to see if I could check for Hand Histories but looks like I can only search back 4 months, screen name was/is chemical09 on SkyPoker.

Never really enjoyed playing NL Hold Em online if I am honest, I do enjoy watching it though, can thank Late Night Poker for that. I found the Sky Poker channel and was watching far more than is probably healthy. Think I was watching lolufold play and thought, looks like an easy game, just do what he does. Well that ended as you would expect, definitely not got the skills he has. I carried on playing for a while on sky poker with a new philosophy that tight was right, think I even folded my way to a final table in a 100 man field tourney once. Overall I donated some money to the community for a while but mainly just continued to watch the channel. Only really enjoy mixed games online and Open face/Pineapple is my game of choice live.

It was James Hartigan who referenced something about NFL betting and a forum Tikay was part of on another site. Think his exact words were they get it right more often than not, I did a bit of searching and found this thread, bookmarked it and thought nothing more of it. At this point I had no online bookie accounts, the only bets I had placed were with friends over the years, winning some and losing some, never really about the money just the banter and to call out bullshit. Looks like I'm finally on the comeback trail with my Arsenal to finish above United recurring bet with one friend

During last years NFL season my brother was telling me about how he was winning money betting on NFL, so I got him round to try and learn and he didn't look like he had a clue what he was doing and it was mainly guess work It was at this point I went back to this thread to see if I could beat him at his own game.

I lurked as a guest for a while and came across BetPal via Tighty, and started betting his NFL Tips blind. Wont be a surprise to anyone here, that I ended up with more cash than I started with. I owe Tighty a lot, through the BetPal site my eyes were opened to betting on sports other than football and his analysis/write ups gave me a clear understanding of why he was making the decisions he was. It certainly made me think in a different way when it came to betting than I originally felt. But crucially there is no doubt in my mind if it wasn't for his tips on BetPal I would have been redepositing not withdrawing first from Paddy.

Tonji would have to be in the list of favs, the first tip I followed directly from 'Tips for Tikay', I had just signed up and deposited £30 on Paddy Power, one of the most recent posts at the time was for Maria Hoefl-Riesch to win a Skiing event. I put the lot on this tip and she made it look easy just as had been predicted very coherently in a well written post. In a way only an Ice Cream can I then placed all the profit on Newcastle to beat United at Old Trafford and back then we actually knew how to score a goal occasionally and we won. During the next month I placed bets on more sports than I would care to count, placed over a £1k worth of bets all off that original stake with no bets bigger than £20, winning and losing along the way and trying to find my feet and not think about the money, even managing to cash some of it off, and it all started from that original tip, still going after 5 months.

Arrboy seems to be the guy that posts the most stuff on this site that even after I think I am getting somewhere, after I read it I cant believe I wasn't thinking that way in the first place and realise that there is a long way to go. Even little things like recently I remember him talking about 'lol 25k a year traders', before this point I always had a mental image that the bookies would be looking to get the best people to employ and I was trying to beat the best, yet he is painting a different image. But it makes sense that the offices are filled with x amount of people good at there job, a smaller percentage that are really dedicated and a group that are just trying to coast through life doing as little as possible. Its the same anywhere I've worked and no reason to assume its different in there offices

ChompyTikay– No 'Tips For Tikay' if it wasn’t for Chompy Tikay, so very grateful to him for starting it all up and setting the ball moving with that first post.

It was seeing the name JoeBeevers post when I first started reading through randomly selected early posts that made me think the info in here would be worth looking at from the beginning. Same could be said for Mr Channing but wasn't aware he was BadBeat when I first started reading. Feels stupid that me seeing someone’s name I recognised from TV was a significant reason for me starting to read the thread from the beginning but it was definitely a factor I'm hoping subconsciously that was because I remembered how well they played on late night poker. Certainly remember thinking if it was worth there time being involved there must be something for me to learn here. And that has definitely been proven correct. Ed Gascoigne (post 44) and Redarmi (Post 63) were proving that from the very start.

Very aware that I am not mentioning a lot of people who contribute a lot to 'Tips for Tikay', please know its not personal, already concerned I am putting too much in this post and its just the ramblings of an intoxicated man, and that is were the screen name comes from. There is a character who is mentioned in Peep show occasionally, only referenced as Chemical Kev, once friends saw it, they've been calling it me ever since, as my house was always the place they could come to crash if there er Glaucoma was playing up. Couldn't tell you the name of a Chemical Brothers song without google I'm afraid.

Will aim to post what I'm thinking more concisely going forward with more time before bets and hopefully I will be able to post more winners than losers. And the least I can do is donate some money to the competitions I see running occasionally via the thread, the Greyhound Derby 2014 Fantasy Kennel Competition seems as good a place to start, if anyone is welcome.

Thanks to everyone who wasn't mentioned above and make the thread what it is.

Kev

Glad to see the first bet can go in the winners column.

The NBA have just released a statement stating Washington Wizards Forward Nene will be banned for Game 4 against the Chicago Bulls after incident with Jimmy Butler in Game 3.

http://nba.si.com/2014/04/26/nene-suspended-wizards-bulls-jimmy-butler/

Nene was ruled out for 6 weeks towards the end of February and during that period the replacement was Trevor Booker. I have been having a quick look at the games that Booker featured in during that time and its fair to say its not a like for like replacement. Booker doesn't have the same presence on Offence and Defense that Nene does. There definitely appears to be some high scores from both sides during that period too though.

If we are to assume the handicappers will adjust the match line and the total points line by the appropriate amount, is it better to be looking to exploit the over/under on specifics players? Jimmy Butlers line has generally been 15.5 I think and Noahs 13.5, I cant remember looking at Boozers line during the playoffs and don’t have a way of finding the lines set for these things from previous games unfortunately. Or maybe looking at some of the other Washington Wizards players who will now have to pick up the slack if they are to get something out of the game.

I’m not sure if there is a bet here and I will try and spend some further time looking into the fixtures during March to see if I can see anything. Hope some people with more NBA knowledge than myself can put the information to good use.

Game is 6pm 27th April

Thanks Kev, that looks an interesting angle.

We have a few really smart NBA-heads here, am sure they will have some views on this by tomorrow.

Nene's been really hot in this series, well the first two games they won anyway, but in general I don't think him going down makes too much diff. Firstly it's no surprise he got a suspension, so the time to bet may well have been while watching live. Booker is a much diff player, so think you're right the extra slack will be taken up by others. Brad Beal has really come of age in this series, I've been over on him the last couple of games, wouldn't be surprised to see him get more shots. Also John Wall is the undoubted star yet he's not been shooting much, so imagine he will take more.

Noah is interesting, he's been a one-man team to get the Bulls where they are but he's been a little off his game. Would love to see him take advantage of less work at the defensive end...he's never gonna score many less than 13, but I went over on 365 in the last game in their combo of points/assists/rebounds which I think is too low (even tho I lost). Might be one for u, as he can get 25 without scoring a point.

Not sure there's massive value anywhere tho, as Nene isn't that big a deal despite playing well at the mo...

Thanks for the response. I must confess I have not been watching the NBA long enough to make informed decisions about these things so glad to hear your thoughts. I was really impressed with Nene during the first game of the series, I can definitely believe I am reading too much in to this suspension and there is not a value bet to be had. To back this up it looks that the news has had no to little change on the lines, certainly not since yesterday anyway, as you said it wasn't surprise information, if I was aware of it.

I do think that the players lines are not adjusted enough over the course of the season games, I can specifically remember LeBrons numbers moving up during a hot streak and the same happening with Carmelo Anthony. However I'm not sure that is the case with the majority of players, it feels like they are set slightly above there season average and that is all the thought that goes into them. Obviously this is Playoff time and its a different style of game, with the better players getting more game time as less incentive to rest players unless your coasting like Miami with a 3-0 lead going into game 4, and this is when the best players are meant to shine.

I generally looked to bet under in the points markets and even the player lines during the regular season last year unless there was a good reason not too, but during the playoffs that has changed and I've gone for overs more often,

I'm still going to look at putting some bets on Butler to score more than 13.5 points, and like you I have been impressed with Noah during the regular season and hoping he will be able to perform with less defensive worries this game, I definitely like the combo bet you mentioned so will be looking at that as its Noahs all round game which has been impressive this year. I also feel that with these games being played every other day the coaches will be looking to adjust game by game and Mike Dunleavy was very impressive scoring a season high of 35 points, many of which were 3 pointers so hoping they will be looking to stop this and that will leave to more space for Butler and Noah

Better wait to see if Trevor Booker is playing first though as its him I think will be the weak link during the game. Thanks for your comment wont be jumping in with both feet on the Bulls team/players now.

Glad to see the first bet can go in the winners column.

The NBA have just released a statement stating Washington Wizards Forward Nene will be banned for Game 4 against the Chicago Bulls after incident with Jimmy Butler in Game 3.

http://nba.si.com/2014/04/26/nene-suspended-wizards-bulls-jimmy-butler/

Nene was ruled out for 6 weeks towards the end of February and during that period the replacement was Trevor Booker. I have been having a quick look at the games that Booker featured in during that time and its fair to say its not a like for like replacement. Booker doesn't have the same presence on Offence and Defense that Nene does. There definitely appears to be some high scores from both sides during that period too though.

If we are to assume the handicappers will adjust the match line and the total points line by the appropriate amount, is it better to be looking to exploit the over/under on specifics players? Jimmy Butlers line has generally been 15.5 I think and Noahs 13.5, I cant remember looking at Boozers line during the playoffs and don’t have a way of finding the lines set for these things from previous games unfortunately. Or maybe looking at some of the other Washington Wizards players who will now have to pick up the slack if they are to get something out of the game.

I’m not sure if there is a bet here and I will try and spend some further time looking into the fixtures during March to see if I can see anything. Hope some people with more NBA knowledge than myself can put the information to good use.

Game is 6pm 27th April

[Get well soon Tighty]

Nice Post Kev

Post more and good to see you post

Thank you for the kind words, have now been able to see the team sheet, while it is not the first 11 I was hoping to see in every position, my thoughts on the game haven't changed. There are several attacking options on the bench including Mata & Hernandez who will hopefully come on to terrify the tiring Norwich defenders if they have been able to keep the starting 11 quiet. I'm probably on for more than I should be and now Fred is on will be sweating it harder.

Regarding the comments and the price from Arbboy, unfortunately this was a bet I had already placed, hopefully its a winner and I will remember the money that I should have had and not make the same mistake again. Took less than 30mins to get useful and helpful feedback should have posted a while back. Cheers for the prompt Tikay.

Will post regarding favs and stuff over weekend, getting ready to cheer Man U on for the first time in a long time.

But more importantly,
Get well soon Tighty

Hi Tikay

Been holding off till I felt I had something useful to contribute, but guess now is as good as any to confirm my Ice Cream status. Guess I will post the last bet I have made and find out the thoughts of the experts.

Man U -1 v Norwich @ evens with B o y l e Sports

Reasoning
I really feel United will be going out to attack this game which Giggs has pretty much stated in press conferences, they will be free of Moyes negativity, and there should be some players that will be looking to perform who have not been able/selected in correct positions during the Moyes reign. I expect Old Trafford to be rocking tomorrow with there golden boy in charge of the club and for the first time this season everyone will be on the same page and I expect United to come out strong.

Concerns are that Norwich will be fighting for everything and managed to score a couple against Liverpool last week, but I feel that says more about the Liverpool defence/philosophy than the Norwich attack.

To clarify I am not a Man United fan, I'm a Newcastle fan (for my sins) and have firmly been in the ABU camp since King Kevs blow up all those years ago, but I just really fancy United this weekend.

I've been trying to understand how some of the others find value in the bets but still not 100% so not sure if the 'evens' represented value or not.

It didn't work out too well for Newcastle when we put the golden boy in charge a couple of years back, but hoping this is a different story

Looking forward to learning more from this brilliant thread

Kev