England vs Australia.

Not too much value but Carberry sticks out.

Carberry Runs Sell 60 - 67 Buy BUY @10PPP (higher stake as much variance). Huge carberry fan and his quote is low due to average scores. Carberry is playing for his place and I can see him coming up with the goods. His average is 30 even disappointing so with the huge upside of a massive score this is a no brainer. This test should be aggressive and high scoring.

Carberry Ton-Ups Sell 4 - 7 Buy BUY @6PPP SEE ABOVE

[-304. Running Total = +554.50]

Bopara Performance Sell 32 - 36 Buy BUY @8PPP - Bowls all four and likely to bat. He'll never get 60 but could easily make up 45+ with a wicket and a small contribution. I don't rate the Sixers' top order (bought henriques last time) so he should get a bat. Huge fan of test players playing 2020. I'd be backing ali cook if he ever decided to play.

Lee Performance Sell 23 - 27 Buy BUY @8PPP - will obviously bowl all four and has a strike rate of a wicket every 19 balls (amazing). another test player who always brings it in 2020. He smashes the ball as well and could be moved up the order (even ahead of bop if sixers cruising but could similarly bat in the event of collapse. Looking for two wickets.

Bopara Performance Sell 32 - 36 Buy BUY @8PPP -88
Lee Performance Sell 23 - 27 Buy BUY @8PPP -216

-304. Running Total = +554.50

Bopara Performance Sell 32 - 36 Buy BUY @8PPP - Bowls all four and likely to bat. He'll never get 60 but could easily make up 45+ with a wicket and a small contribution. I don't rate the Sixers' top order (bought henriques last time) so he should get a bat. Huge fan of test players playing 2020. I'd be backing ali cook if he ever decided to play.

Lee Performance Sell 23 - 27 Buy BUY @8PPP - will obviously bowl all four and has a strike rate of a wicket every 19 balls (amazing). another test player who always brings it in 2020. He smashes the ball as well and could be moved up the order (even ahead of bop if sixers cruising but could similarly bat in the event of collapse. Looking for two wickets.

[-512]

Hogg Performance Sell 24 - 28 Buy SELL @ 8PPP +112
Perth Scorchers Bigshots Sell 56 - 64 Buy BUY @ 8PPP -512

Running Total: +511.50 - 400 = +111.50

today's bet

My Matchmakers: Hales Performance/Woakes Performance Sell -1 - 3 Buy SELL@8PPP Hales is overrated (imo) and will get found out (reminds me of levy two years ago and napier before that). No one performs to this level without outstanding pedigree (he doesn't) or some brute power (gayle). His quote is just about OK to sell but I prefer to mix his sell with a buy of Woakes who looks good for a few points over his quote. Batting Ok and bowling well. He also moves up in the order as a slogger if his team is doing well. He also has a better catch ratio than Hales.

Klinger Performance Sell 33 - 37 Buy SELL @6PPP. Although Klinger is no plodder, he has to take a back seat to Hales today who will again try to fire early. I think if he doesn't score freely he won't have made too many and hopefully he gets out. He was striking the ball in the middle of the bat last game but there are of course weaknesses in his game. For someone who never bowls and an average of 32, selling at 33 seems good especially against nannes and woakes who have good strike rates. I don't like this bet as much as the above hence the lower stake.

Klinger Performance Sell 33 - 37 Buy SELL @6PPP  -66
My Matchmakers: Hales Performance/Woakes Performance Sell -1 - 3 Buy SELL@8PPP +24

Running total +111.50 - 42= +69.5.

Got really unlucky here. I was freerolling on woakes and somehow they shuffled woakes (wrongly) down the order and may have lost because of it.

Today's bets.

Birt Performance Sell 32 - 36 Buy SELL @ 8PPP. Same as last time but game was abandoned. Not proven at this level . His average is ten at t20i level and 23 even in domestic cricket. Easy sell as he never bowls.
Brisbane Heat Bigshots Sell 60 - 68 Buy BUY @7PPP. I like Kieswetter, Pomersbach and Christian. If Lynn could get six sixes at this ground (though I sold the bigshots of Scorchers at this ground), then this looks good for 4 sixes. These are all top order batsmen and a slow start/one wicket and it's likely a loss. But the upside is very big if we get in. I remember Kieswetter blasting four for somerset this year.

Birt Performance Sell 32 - 36 Buy SELL @ 8PPP +40
Brisbane Heat Bigshots Sell 60 - 68 Buy BUY @7PPP +749

69.5 + 789 = +858.50

it's raining sixes

[-512]

Hogg Performance Sell 24 - 28 Buy SELL @ 8PPP +112
Perth Scorchers Bigshots Sell 56 - 64 Buy BUY @ 8PPP -512

Running Total: +511.50 - 400 = +111.50

today's bet

My Matchmakers: Hales Performance/Woakes Performance Sell -1 - 3 Buy SELL@8PPP Hales is overrated (imo) and will get found out (reminds me of levy two years ago and napier before that). No one performs to this level without outstanding pedigree (he doesn't) or some brute power (gayle). His quote is just about OK to sell but I prefer to mix his sell with a buy of Woakes who looks good for a few points over his quote. Batting Ok and bowling well. He also moves up in the order as a slogger if his team is doing well. He also has a better catch ratio than Hales.

Klinger Performance Sell 33 - 37 Buy SELL @6PPP. Although Klinger is no plodder, he has to take a back seat to Hales today who will again try to fire early. I think if he doesn't score freely he won't have made too many and hopefully he gets out. He was striking the ball in the middle of the bat last game but there are of course weaknesses in his game. For someone who never bowls and an average of 32, selling at 33 seems good especially against nannes and woakes who have good strike rates. I don't like this bet as much as the above hence the lower stake.

Klinger Performance Sell 33 - 37 Buy SELL @6PPP  -66
My Matchmakers: Hales Performance/Woakes Performance Sell -1 - 3 Buy SELL@8PPP +24

Running total +111.50 - 42= +69.5.

Got really unlucky here. I was freerolling on woakes and somehow they shuffled woakes (wrongly) down the order and may have lost because of it.

Today's bets.

Birt Performance Sell 32 - 36 Buy SELL @ 8PPP. Same as last time but game was abandoned. Not proven at this level . His average is ten at t20i level and 23 even in domestic cricket. Easy sell as he never bowls.
Brisbane Heat Bigshots Sell 60 - 68 Buy BUY @7PPP. I like Kieswetter, Pomersbach and Christian. If Lynn could get six sixes at this ground (though I sold the bigshots of Scorchers at this ground), then this looks good for 4 sixes. These are all top order batsmen and a slow start/one wicket and it's likely a loss. But the upside is very big if we get in. I remember Kieswetter blasting four for somerset this year.

[-512]

Hogg Performance Sell 24 - 28 Buy SELL @ 8PPP +112
Perth Scorchers Bigshots Sell 56 - 64 Buy BUY @ 8PPP -512

Running Total: +511.50 - 400 = +111.50

today's bet

My Matchmakers: Hales Performance/Woakes Performance Sell -1 - 3 Buy SELL@8PPP Hales is overrated (imo) and will get found out (reminds me of levy two years ago and napier before that). No one performs to this level without outstanding pedigree (he doesn't) or some brute power (gayle). His quote is just about OK to sell but I prefer to mix his sell with a buy of Woakes who looks good for a few points over his quote. Batting Ok and bowling well. He also moves up in the order as a slogger if his team is doing well. He also has a better catch ratio than Hales.

Klinger Performance Sell 33 - 37 Buy SELL @6PPP. Although Klinger is no plodder, he has to take a back seat to Hales today who will again try to fire early. I think if he doesn't score freely he won't have made too many and hopefully he gets out. He was striking the ball in the middle of the bat last game but there are of course weaknesses in his game. For someone who never bowls and an average of 32, selling at 33 seems good especially against nannes and woakes who have good strike rates. I don't like this bet as much as the above hence the lower stake.

I meant do you buy/sell player runs in play.

Thanks for the insight. Agree about Hogg

2020 player performances don't go in play. I don't do player runs in play as they are strictly average based and you can't argue with the quotes most of the time.

hogg bricked out but got a catch again. He is one useless fielder. I'm hoping his quote doesn't change.

ouch. Sometimes it goes this way. Katich and Marsh looking good but only no sixes. One out, that was it. Hopefully hogg bricks out and I'll study for tomorrow.

Do you bet in play? Or is it all done pre match?

If you can put a bit of reasoning in when you can would be insightful

all pre-match. Player Performances don't go in running. Smashed it with Pakistan Sri Lanka but didn't have enough time to post on the blog.

Hogg Performance Sell 24 - 28 Buy SELL @ 8PPP
Perth Scorchers Bigshots Sell 56 - 64 Buy BUY @ 8PPP

Selling Hogg. He never bats and was extremely lucky to take the wickets he did last match. His quote went up (results orientated) so he seems a good spot to sell again. I'll be selling him all tournament if his quote stays the same. He does always bowl his quota but if batsmen don't need to hit him, he doesn't have any magic balls. I can see him getting one wicket but that's it.

Re perth scorchers bigshots (marsh, marsh, katich). Last match they played at a big ground (Woolloongabba). This one is a lot smaller (W.A.C.A. Ground). Katich was out to a no ball but his perf is too high to buy) and both Marsh's looked in great nick. If it wasn't for the falling wickets they could have been even more aggressive. I can envisage at least four sixes between these three. If Katich holds up his end, Shaun Marsh could get us freerolling by the time Mitchell comes in and starts going bananas.

Just for the unaware, whilst I am up over 500pts, this is a very low win rate (at the moment) as I'm risking potentially hundreds of points every bet. However, I hope to grow the balance and up the stakes.

Phil I haven't posted yet but am reading

Cricket being one of my things

Do you ever bet fixed odds?

Do you read tips for tikay? Feel like contributing?

No, only spreads and only derivatives/props. Cricket o/u specials on particular batsmen/bowlers is vigged too heavily.

I don't read tips for tikay but I'll check it out.

[-40]

50-Ups Sell 22 - 26 Buy SELL @ 8PPP -40
M.Henriques Performance Sell 31 - 35 Buy BUY @ 8PPP +264
D.Warner Performance Sell 34 - 38 Buynone SELL @ 8PPP -288

-64...running total +653.50 points


Today's bets

Twenty20: Hobart Hurricanes v Adelaide Strikers (Match Specials) sell 50 ups 8ppp 22-26 VOID

sell travis birt perf 8ppp 31-36 VOID

Twenty20: Brisbane Heat v Perth Scorchers (Match Specials) sell perth bigshots at 6ppp 64-72 +234

buy katich 8ppp 23-27 -136
sell hogg 5ppp 22-26 -240

-142 POINTS. Running Total +653.50 points = +511.50. Got unlucky with the weather as factored in some rain affecting the performance. Agh

adjustments for hogg's late catch

for anyone's that's following, I will only be sticking to cricket and boxing (very rare as fights available for spreads are too well covered) for now. I won't have too much time to write down my reasoning but rest assured - I am pretty confident I've studied harder than any trader on the individual players. I consider the potential flow of the match, their current mindset, how they perform against certain bowlers/batsmen and looking for edges trying to get in the captain's head (maybe a player will get a bowl when he wasn't expected to).

I will update today's later but I was definitely unlucky on the abandoned game. i stood to win because of the shortened game (player performance).

[-40]

50-Ups Sell 22 - 26 Buy SELL @ 8PPP -40
M.Henriques Performance Sell 31 - 35 Buy BUY @ 8PPP +264
D.Warner Performance Sell 34 - 38 Buynone SELL @ 8PPP -288

-64...running total +653.50 points


Today's bets

Twenty20: Hobart Hurricanes v Adelaide Strikers (Match Specials) sell 50 ups 8ppp 22-26

sell travis birt perf 8ppp 31-36

Twenty20: Brisbane Heat v Perth Scorchers (Match Specials) sell perth bigshots at 6ppp 64-72

buy katich 8ppp 23-27
sell hogg 5ppp 22-26