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Poker Forums / Live Tournament Staking / Re: Irish Open
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on: April 01, 2010, 05:11:59 AM
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While I agree that the costs/expenses thing doesn't come into people's equity in the comp and therefore the competitive rate they should be able to charge, I think that it's not just a 'cover up.'
I am of the opinion that I have a decent edge over the field and feel that by offering 1.2 I am giving up some of that edge, I am also aware that potential stakers have significantly less knowledge regarding my abilities than I do (a small sample of good-ish results plus any other knowledge regarding my game). In order to negate this lack of information I am willing to offer a lower rate than what I think I may be worth. There is a limit as to how far I will reduce this rate though, and that depends on a couple of things imo - people's willingness to buy at certain rates and other costs associated with playing the comp. You think that, given the information available to you, this rate is still too high. That's fair enough, that's your prerogative. Some people might think differently. Imo the edges in live comps are far greater than those online, so whatever you think my online roi could be given that small sample and any other info you might have/get, my live one is likely to be larger as the standard of play is worse and live tells are included.
Back when staking arrangements started popping up around here people were throwing money at people that were offering rates around 1.4-1.5 without thinking twice, the market has corrected itself however and I feel that now both sides of the market are a little more aware of the maths/stats involved and people are making much more sensible requests and offers.
I'm not trying to squeeze money out of people, you can see that I've bought pieces of people at similar, if not greater rates in the past so I really do think this is fair. And I know its nothing personal, I don't take it that way at all. It is an interesting debate and its a topic that probably hasn't been debated enough on here, with many people just going with whatever has gone before, as you say.
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6
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Poker Forums / Live Tournament Staking / Re: Irish Open
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on: March 31, 2010, 11:48:35 PM
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lol, why does absolutely everyone think they are good enough to sell at a premium nowadays?
Sigh. Can't speak for everyone, but for me because i've been able to support myself for the last couple of years with no other source of income and there's a bunch of costs involved with travelling to/staying at the tournament.
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10
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Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: Test your risk intelligence -
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on: March 26, 2010, 04:48:52 PM
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as they are factual questions why would you put anything other than 0 or 100%? (or 50% if you have no idea)
This an example: 'the grand canyon is in nevada' i don't know whether it is or not. iv never been. i do know, however, that it is near vegas - and that vegas is in nevada. i'm pretty certain that its not it california, but there are 3 other states v close to nevada that it could be in (new mex, utah and... colorado maybe?) anyway, i reckon it is in nevada, but i wouldnt be surprised if it turns out to be in one of the others. what the test is testing is how good we are at predicting how often we get this question right. even though the grand canyon either is or isnt in nevada, given my uncertain information, i reckon i get this question right around 80% of the time. in this quiz, the question isn't 'is the grand canyon in nevada?' - its 'how often do you think you would get the question "is the grand canyon in nevada?" correct?' But Arizona, which is where the Grand Canyon actually is, is not even in your list, so if you thought you might even vaguely get that right, you were obviously sadly mistaken  . I'd be curious to know what score you get if you were 0 or 100 on every question, and got them all right. Is it going to mark you down for being clever? I only got one badly wrong (100% when it was false), and was 0/100 on about 12 of the 20, correctly, and my score was fairly pish. arizona, bah. dont reckon they can mark you down for being clever, you should score perfectly for this imo (as you presumably should if you say 50/50 without reading the questions...). as all the points that exist on your line are on the calibration line (given large sample for 50:50 example)
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11
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Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: Test your risk intelligence -
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on: March 26, 2010, 12:42:34 AM
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as they are factual questions why would you put anything other than 0 or 100%? (or 50% if you have no idea)
This an example: 'the grand canyon is in nevada' i don't know whether it is or not. iv never been. i do know, however, that it is near vegas - and that vegas is in nevada. i'm pretty certain that its not it california, but there are 3 other states v close to nevada that it could be in (new mex, utah and... colorado maybe?) anyway, i reckon it is in nevada, but i wouldnt be surprised if it turns out to be in one of the others. what the test is testing is how good we are at predicting how often we get this question right. even though the grand canyon either is or isnt in nevada, given my uncertain information, i reckon i get this question right around 80% of the time. in this quiz, the question isn't 'is the grand canyon in nevada?' - its 'how often do you think you would get the question "is the grand canyon in nevada?" correct?' I know what the test says it does but it's all bollocks! I took it twice, putting random answers 2nd time and scored higher. I manage/assess/score risk on a daily basis at work using plenty of evidence based tools, this isn't on of 'em i havn't really read what the test says it does, it just makes sense from its structure. as for you scoring higher with random answers, i can only say that small sample sizing is an explanation (50 questions with 11 options seems a bit silly imo). it doesnt test how good you are at crunching numbers and dealing with probabilities in a mathematical way (as i assume you do with your job) - just how aware you are of your own knowledge.
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12
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Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: Test your risk intelligence -
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on: March 25, 2010, 11:08:01 PM
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as they are factual questions why would you put anything other than 0 or 100%? (or 50% if you have no idea)
This an example: 'the grand canyon is in nevada' i don't know whether it is or not. iv never been. i do know, however, that it is near vegas - and that vegas is in nevada. i'm pretty certain that its not it california, but there are 3 other states v close to nevada that it could be in (new mex, utah and... colorado maybe?) anyway, i reckon it is in nevada, but i wouldnt be surprised if it turns out to be in one of the others. what the test is testing is how good we are at predicting how often we get this question right. even though the grand canyon either is or isnt in nevada, given my uncertain information, i reckon i get this question right around 80% of the time. in this quiz, the question isn't 'is the grand canyon in nevada?' - its 'how often do you think you would get the question "is the grand canyon in nevada?" correct?'
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15
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Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: Test your risk intelligence -
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on: March 24, 2010, 04:26:50 PM
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I got 58, though dunno what that really means.
id imagine its do with the size of the area between your line and the perfect line. not sure if the scores are done completely on this or on how well you do relative to everyone else has taken it though
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