Yeah fairly straightforward pass here...

Perhaps make a slightly bigger raise preflop also, giving major value to people behind you.

+1

3x+limpers would be nice

+1

For me it's either all in or fold.

For me if you limp in from UTG likely to induce limpers behind you, and less likely to win the pot. Even if you do hit top pair on the flop this may not be enough with many limpers.

It is a fold normally for me here unless the following exceptional circumstances.

1. You have a very tight image and the table is very tight i.e. where you'd expect to be called no more than 1 in 3 times. But here your fold equity means you could push all in with any 2 cards.

2. Where the above applies except the BB who is very loose and will call with a big range.  Here you still have a +cEV because more often than not you will be called with a worse hand.

Other than the above I would fold. You can afford another round of blinds and still have good fold equity and hope to have it folded to you at a later position next round - looking to survive until you hit a premium hand.

I'm calling here.

900 to call 1700. 34% into final pot.

You're close to having 34% chance against most hands that are beating you (except AA) - AK,AQ, KK , QQ, JJ.

So to fold I think you need to believe that it's more likely he has AA than making a move with any other hand not listed above (and unless villain is a real rock - hard to believe) . The only time I might fold here is close to bubble in satellite or SitnGo (i.e. when it is -$EV even though +cEV.)

I agree with other blondies and suggest smaller bet pre flop - perhaps 3k - so that you can get away if you want if he moves all in.

Ironically if he had a bigger stack than you, you could probably have got away from it.

Here' s my thoughts for what they're worth.

Pre flop - good raise .

Flop _ You have a good hand here and can assume your ahead. I would bet more here to build the pot - may be 250.

Turn - You can definitely assume you're ahead but very vulnerable to fourth club. Must bet here about 500 imo. Much better for him to fold than for you to loose pot on river. If you were 1st to play here and believed he would bet, then a check raise may be worth considering. But you cant let him have a free card.

River

 I think I would have raised the riverassuming I'm still ahead. You have bet small on the flop and checked the turn, showing no strength. He might assume you have little and could be bluffed off the pot. Its unlikely that the J helped him. So I would be min raising to 1170 for value (anything more he is less likely to call without much of a hand). If he then reraises you would have to consider the size of the reaise, think through the hand and his history and decide whether to call.

Its a fold for me as well.

Congratulations Mantis on your milestone. I must admit in my short time with Blondepoker I always read your posts with particular interest. They are usually both instructive and witty.  

What is your plan for the flop then?

 It was a bit of a wait and see plan to be honest. Certainly if the flop was favourable (no aces) I was happy to get involved .

As it happened I pushed thinking UTG probably had AK, and I was also probably beating button who could have called pre flop with wide range of hands. Button folded, UTG took some time but eventually called with KK. The miracle Jack didn't come.

After the hand I thought it would have been better strategy to check to the button, who probably been relied on to bet. Im fairly sure UTG is new to casino and not familiar with buttons play. If UTG then goes all in then I have received more information and can fold because I'm probably beaten. If UTG calls a small bet or folds, Im likely to be winning and can make a powerful check raise all in.

If Button goes all in and UTG folds, theres a strong likdelihood that I'm winning and I would have called.

(by the way button said he had TT after the hand)

I agree with the call in this scenario, hope you don't get a call from the blinds and out play him post flop in position.

flat calling pre is terrible.

 I hear what your saying Alex and you're probably right. With such a short stack I would not normally flat call here.

The 3 reasons I did was because :

I did not know the UTG player. To me raising UTG, with 7 players behind you,  with 1/6 of your stack for a typically solid player would normally mean a very good hand AJ+, TT +. Here I'm dominating AJ and TT, but loosing badly to AA - QQ. It's possible I suppose by going all in I might have made him fold AQ and have some fold equity there, but hes certainly not folding any other premium hands.

I was comfortable playing at the table and whilst the stacks were getting relatively low, generally I'd rather take my chances elsewhere than gamble on what could well be a coin flip.

I had position on UTG player after flop.

I did even consider folding here but couldn't make myself do it !

shove pre cos not enough chips after flop to fold anyway so not much fold equity


Thanks Taz. After calling flop I have 6.3k - 15 BBs still average chips - isn't that plenty to continue playing reasonably normally and with plenty of fold equity ?

Charlie44. Do you always assume the worse? Not having a dig or anything but the previous actions and more so the turn action don't suggest any of the hands you put forward as possibilities.

Thanks for the comment Evil Pie, I appreciate we all have our opinions. I don't always assume the worse. In my experience however most bets are for value rather than bluffs, and I want reasonable evidence to commit my money.

You have bet twice and he is now raising. If this was the river I'd call, but how much more will he bet on the river ?. I have 2 other reasons why I believe the hero is beaten here.

1. In the past after calling in the BB, the villain has bet out first. He didn't here even though the flop looks good to do so. If he bet out on the flop I would have been happy to go over the top. But he just check called.

2. Imo the check raise on the turn is not saying I want you out of the hand. According to my maths he has raised 46k into a 79k pot. (just over half pot.) To me this is saying I have a big hand and I want you to build the pot. If he wants to get rid of you I think the raise would have been bigger.

Was there an outcome or was it folded ?

£10 rebuy tourney after buy in period completed. About 30 left in. BB - 400. Average chips - 6k.

8 players on table.

UTG - Stack 7k Not long joined the table I know nothing about.

Me - UTG +2 - 7.5k.    Generally seen as playing tight - mostly big hands at showdown.

Button - 5k.  Agressive post flop. Tends to play bluffs in position - probably too many.

UTG Bets 1.2k

I look down at JJ - I call.

Button calls.

All others folded.

Flop QQ8 ( 2hearts)

BB checks . What now ?

Better to go all in pre flop ?


 

For me ideal situation - On the button with a monster hand.  You should be happy to get all the chips in pre flop. I depends on your previous BSB play and your own/opps image, but generally I think a smallish raise here - 15k - 18k and be happy whatever happens.

even if he flips his 66 face up this is almost a call

I agree - you have the odds to call. My maths make it that you will be putting $5.60 into $15.40 pot - 26.7% of final pot. So you need more than 26.7% chance to make it +ev call.

Your outs are 9 clubs , 2 aces and 2 nines. Total 13 outs - Approx 28.6 % chance of hitting.

So imo call even if you know it's 66.

Going to call with QQ+ and AK in this spot. Might loosen/tighten this range depending on reads.

I like this

we've 3bet and there's been a 4b ai and a 5b ai. QQ has to be borderline. def binning JJ unless these 2 are mega loose

not been loose at all - in fact pretty tight - even the smallest stacks still have 10 and 20 BB each.

i actually passed QQ. i almost vomited when I saw JJ and AK

I think you were right to pass here. With  rayusmaximus (the biggest stack) playing tight I think it narrows it down to AK, AA or KK. 12 out of 28 times you are big dog. Other 16 coinf flip.

Assuming you are comfortable playing against the guys on the table you will still have good chance of winning seat if you fold. No need to gamble imo.