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Rod Paradise
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« on: June 13, 2006, 04:02:29 PM » |
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During the last Euro Championships I got talking to a guy who claimed that the bookies offered too high odds on 1 team leading at half-time only to be the losers at full time in big championships.
He reckoned it happened between 1 game in 6 & 1 in 7. The lowest odds at the bookies is 20-1.
So, I thought I'd try it & so far, after 12 games there have been 2 revrsals - one at 22-1 & 1 at 24-1 (Paddy Power) - so having put £1 on each scenario for the first 14 games (£28) I'm in profit by £20 with 2 more games tonight. Obviously it's a small sample but it's also the early games - as the tournament goes on and team HAVE to win, the chances of a reversal should get better.
I'll keep it going & see what it results in.....
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May the bird of paradise fly up your nose, with a badger on its back.
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Rod Paradise
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« Reply #1 on: June 13, 2006, 04:09:28 PM » |
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Correction - when putting on tomorrows bets - the odds of Poland 1/2 time Germany full time are only 18-1 - but still the odds are better than they should be (if the 1 in 6/7 is correct).
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May the bird of paradise fly up your nose, with a badger on its back.
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matt674
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« Reply #2 on: June 13, 2006, 04:10:48 PM » |
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More often than not the reversal is a rare occurance, especially in the early stages of the tournament, hence the longer odds - but for some reason so far this year there havent been any completely "one-sided" encounters which i think a lot of the bookmakers were expecting.
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sponsored by Fyffes
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dan
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« Reply #3 on: June 13, 2006, 07:20:28 PM » |
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would you not have to put 2 bets on each game though.
team a h/t team b f/t and team b h/t team b f/t
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Rod Paradise
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« Reply #4 on: June 14, 2006, 11:21:59 AM » |
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would you not have to put 2 bets on each game though.
team a h/t team b f/t and team b h/t team b f/t
Yep, that's what I'm putting on. Anything better than 1 in 10, ie 1 bet in 20 and I'll have made my money back. If the reversals are from smaller teams overcoming big teams - more profit. |
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May the bird of paradise fly up your nose, with a badger on its back.
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Rod Paradise
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« Reply #6 on: June 14, 2006, 04:31:36 PM » |
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Wasn't 100% sure - and the first 2 days had none  |
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May the bird of paradise fly up your nose, with a badger on its back.
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Graham C
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« Reply #7 on: June 14, 2006, 04:43:23 PM » |
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Half time/ full time reversal bets are always nice if they come in. I didn't realise they came in as often as 1 in 6 or 7 though I heard that if you backed a draw in every game you'd be up overall too but I haven't tried it and don't want to risk it either |
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Rod Paradise
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« Reply #8 on: June 14, 2006, 05:28:34 PM » |
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Half time/ full time reversal bets are always nice if they come in. I didn't realise they came in as often as 1 in 6 or 7 though I heard that if you backed a draw in every game you'd be up overall too but I haven't tried it and don't want to risk it either I wouldn't know if you'd get that ratio normally - I think it's the big comps, where the win's more important than in a normal league game for instance. I may just try and keep records during the next Champion's League though.... |
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May the bird of paradise fly up your nose, with a badger on its back.
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thetank
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« Reply #10 on: June 14, 2006, 06:41:56 PM » |
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Jam bam thankyou mam.
Bad day for Africa (again) good day for Rod.
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For super fun to exist, well defined parameters must exist for the super fun to exist within.
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thetank
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« Reply #11 on: June 14, 2006, 06:49:52 PM » |
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Sorry for the bokking  |
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For super fun to exist, well defined parameters must exist for the super fun to exist within.
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Rod Paradise
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« Reply #13 on: June 15, 2006, 10:50:21 AM » |
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Cheers Dave & Tank......  A mate in the pub was cheering because it got him 10 points in his work sweep, then he realised it had cost me £23 - so he cheered more - I had that one counted as well...... |
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May the bird of paradise fly up your nose, with a badger on its back.
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patman
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« Reply #14 on: June 20, 2006, 05:21:26 PM » |
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hows the bet rod...spain did good for you...and poland so far as well.
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