Cash game players - would you lay this hand down?

[marcro]

Playing $3/$6 NL on Party.  Poker tracker rates both Villain and I as TAG's.  Villain has been playing solid poker up to now:


Table Table  127854 (Real Money) -- Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: ( $1279.65)
Seat 2: ( $350.60)
Seat 3: ( $117.60)
Seat 4: Hero ( $582)
Seat 5: ( $663.50)
Seat 6: Villain ( $635)
Seat 5   posts small blind (3)
Villain posts big blind (6)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ , ]
Seat 1 folds.
Seat 2 folds.
Seat 3 folds.
Hero raises (21) to 21
Seat 5 calls (18)
Villain raises (69) to 75
ChuJung calls (54)
Seat 5 folds.
** Dealing Flop ** :  [ , , ]
Villain bets (110)
Hero calls (110)
** Dealing Turn ** :  [ ]
Villain bets (225)


So what do you do now?  Would you have reraised Villain after the flop instead of calling?

[Tragic]

I'd reraise flop cos ur more likely to get his stack in with KK or AA, I would never pass this now if he has AK so be it though i'd probably bet AK like that too....tough one.

[Raindogs]

I wouldn't expect Villian to lead out on the flop if he had AK.  With 2 players to act he has a better chance to build a pot by checking the flop and allowing one of his opponents to bet as there is a good chance that one of them has hit this flop.  However he may feel that there is a good chance someone flopped a set/2 pair, given the pre flop action, and by leading out he may get raised.  On balance I would guess he would check AK (even though it will look suspicious given he re-raised pre flop).

With trip Q's and the pre flop agressor betting into you I call and hope he leads on the turn.  I don't see the point of re-raising on the flop as if he has AA or KK you are giving him a chance to fold on a flop where he could easily be behind to a set/2 pair.  

I am pushing on the turn.

[marcro]

Thanks for the replies guys - I pushed on the turn and sure enough he had the AK.  I was never going to lay this down and just wanted to see if most would have done the same.

[Tragic]

I really think you have to lead out with AK here, what could he possibly hope to get paid off by when he checks? IF you have called with 99- first of all you are stupid and secondly he wont get paid no matter what he does. Therefore ur range almost always involves cards that have hit this board, and so leading out is the best way of getting the opponent to go "he wouldn't do that with AK surely???!" Any set will pay, if he's reraised like that with AQ then he's bad enough to call you from here on, if he has AA or KK he could well reraise the flop after you bet to find out where he is, at least call the flop and maybe a river value bet, if he checks the guy in marcros position probably gives one bet after the flop with AA or KK then slows right down unless him improves after the call. QQ JJ and TT are paying you anyway. Imo you must bet out with AK here but equally TT JJ QQ KK and AA will probably bet, on the balance it's a call he played it well and you got unlucky but I disagree about the norm is checking AK here. Just my opinion .

[Smart Money]

You shouldn't even think about laying this hand down. The only decision is how to play the flop.

There is only one hand that you are behind to, and even against AK you have near enough correct odds to call:

44 unknowns (if you have him on AK) and 10 outs to hit quads/full house- gives you a 3.4/1 chance.

$225 to call into a $613 pot, which is pretty close to 3/1

[fruitypro]

I don't like the call on the flop.  I think I commit myself to this hand and say 'nh but I have outs' if he has AK.  You arent going to be liking many turn cards so I think you need to play this faster for sure.  You will get action from many worse hands such as AA/KK/JJ/TT or even 99 on occasion - so I like a raise to about $350 here and call a shove.

As played, I shove to the turn bet.