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Poker Hand Analysis
Bluffing goes wrong
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Topic: Bluffing goes wrong (Read 5025 times)
TightEnd
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Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: Bluffing goes wrong
«
Reply #30 on:
January 27, 2009, 10:26:01 AM »
Quote from: Blatch on January 27, 2009, 10:22:32 AM
Quote from: TightEnd on January 27, 2009, 10:05:44 AM
Quote from: Blatch on January 27, 2009, 04:23:23 AM
Also, most people at this standard of play do their balls on the triple barrel. You knew you should give up on it, so wh didnt you?
As I explained in the OP, I had two unpalatable options on the river. Check it down and stand no chance of winning the pot with a considerable amount invested or fire again with little prospect of not being called
As explained to me subsequently this is because of combinations of a) bad flop play/reraise too small b) no shove on turn giving him a chance to pass
Ok when you say little prospect chance of being called how little do you think?
Was it about £80 you had left? I cant remember the exact figure but: -
a) you check, you have 0% of winning pot but 100% of keeping 80 = £80 in hand
b) you bet £80 and have 10% chance making him fold = ES of £46
To make it a profitable play you need to be pretty certain you can get your opponent to fold about 17% of the time, which im not sure you can.
Agreed.
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snoopy1239
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Re: Bluffing goes wrong
«
Reply #31 on:
January 27, 2009, 10:57:59 PM »
Well, I admire your bravery, both in terms of three barrelling and having the guts to post the hand here. For the bluff to work, though, we need to make sure that our opponent is aware and willing to act accordingly to the image we have thus far portrayed, and, if he does have this acknowledged, still be able to lay down a hand. It would seem here, that this is simply not the case, especially when you yourself term the table as "full of aggressive spewy types" which can affect even the most 'sensible' of players.
I don't think there's much wrong with your play apart from perhaps this not being the best opportunity to make your big bluff. If a scare card had hit the turn, then maybe so, but because it pairs a raggy card, hands that he can call a raise on the flop with can still be tempted into continuing on fourth and fifth street. I don't think your turn bet looks much like a house, so you're basically representing 8-8, 9-9, T-T with bigger pairs expected to repop preflop. Once he dwells and calls, I think he's made a decision for the river too, so you have to swallow it up and check.
Again, I don't think your line is terrible in theory, it's just that board is so ragtastic that it's a big risk on a stonecold bluff and you don't have a particularly reason for making this the hand where you put your stack on the line. Against a better player, you may get away with it as your range doesn't seem to include too many bluffs, but he obviously wasn't the strongest of players and seemed to make a guess on the turn. Sounds like you're better off just playing a solid, patient game if the table is as described. Whatever your image, you should still get paid.
«
Last Edit: January 27, 2009, 11:05:42 PM by snoopy1239
»
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Ismene
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Re: Bluffing goes wrong
«
Reply #32 on:
February 01, 2009, 05:38:59 PM »
For what it's worth - and i doubt very much having read the replies by everyone else - I think Blatch describes the thinking of a cash player - i.e.£80 in hand.
Your process seems to be that of a tournament player - in that if he sees me put the last of my chips in he will HAVE to believe he's beat...
Is it one of the fundamentals that make cash and tournament players so different i don't know - but the "Poker" logic of a cash player is infinitely polarised to that of the tournament player in so many instances - and the fact that IMO there are very few who are good at both....
I'm not saying never play cash - I'm just saying maybe your familiar lines that you take in tournaments won't rep as well in cash play - and it's something to think about....
Feel free to disagree tho ;-)
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byronkincaid
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Re: Bluffing goes wrong
«
Reply #33 on:
February 01, 2009, 05:46:20 PM »
I agree with you apart from
Quote
and the fact that IMO there are very few who are good at both....
most people who are excellent cash players could be good at tournaments if they choose to be.
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Ismene
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Re: Bluffing goes wrong
«
Reply #34 on:
February 01, 2009, 06:01:03 PM »
Quote from: byronkincaid on February 01, 2009, 05:46:20 PM
I agree with you apart from
Quote
and the fact that IMO there are very few who are good at both....
most people who are excellent cash players could be good at tournaments if they choose to be.
Excellence is defined by the very top percentile right?
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byronkincaid
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Re: Bluffing goes wrong
«
Reply #35 on:
February 01, 2009, 06:20:15 PM »
Quote from: Ismene on February 01, 2009, 06:01:03 PM
Quote from: byronkincaid on February 01, 2009, 05:46:20 PM
I agree with you apart from
Quote
and the fact that IMO there are very few who are good at both....
most people who are excellent cash players could be good at tournaments if they choose to be.
Excellence is defined by the very top percentile right?
well tbh I think that anyone who is good at 100BB cash could pwn tournaments if they wished to but whether they want to play high frustration/variance/repeatedly get kicked in the nuts on the bubble crapshoots is another matter
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