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Author Topic: % of runner runner flush after flop?  (Read 1712 times)
Woodsey
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« on: March 28, 2009, 07:57:15 PM »

Had a big cash hand at Empire earlier with lots of players all in where this made a difference to me calling off the rest of my stack on the flop or not as the pot odds were tight. It made me realise I didn't know what the % of this happening was so I could add it to my other outs, anyone know? I guessed about 6-7% at the time but I'm still not 100% sure?

eg I have  and there is 1 spade on the flop, what should I add?
« Last Edit: March 28, 2009, 07:58:58 PM by Woodsey » Logged
kinboshi
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« Reply #1 on: March 28, 2009, 08:04:36 PM »

It's about 4% to hit a backdraw flush, if you have two cards to come (I think).
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Woodsey
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« Reply #2 on: March 28, 2009, 08:09:44 PM »

It's about 4% to hit a backdraw flush, if you have two cards to come (I think).

Yes 2 cards to come, any advance on 4% anyone?
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Longy
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« Reply #3 on: March 28, 2009, 08:10:25 PM »

Assuming no knowledge of any other cards. There are 47 cards unknown, 10 of which are spades.

So 10/47 * 9/46= 90/2162 or 4.16%
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Woodsey
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« Reply #4 on: March 28, 2009, 08:12:32 PM »

OK ta, that info will encourage me to  a bit more

LOL I see Jakally is looking at this thread, 3   2   1 before pisstake about me being a fish
« Last Edit: March 28, 2009, 08:14:27 PM by Woodsey » Logged
Karabiner
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« Reply #5 on: March 29, 2009, 11:14:59 AM »

I seem to recall that the wisdom was that it was either 21/1 or 22/1 so that would concur with c4%.
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« Reply #6 on: March 29, 2009, 05:32:02 PM »

subtract a little for the times where you're in against a set/2 pair and he fills up? then some of your outs are discounted
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