River, nuts, induce, c/c or vb?

[AlexMartin]

Ok, villain is a reg TAG, decent, runs at 22/18/3. I have a little history with him, this session i just overbet a river which got through about 10 hands before this.

On the river, is his range weighted towards draws or marginal made hands? Also, what is the best course of action for getting maximum value from the combined range of said hands?

***** Betfair Poker Hand History for Game 531822421 *****
NL $1/$2 Texas Hold'em - Friday, June 05, 22:34:00 GMT 2009
Table Oxygen 09 6-max (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of active players : 5
Seat 1: Marino4ka ( $186 )
Seat 2: DrAntox ( $195.05 )
Seat 3: JammyJenny ( $200 )
Seat 4: AstonOE ( $217.20 )
Seat 5: Sevlow ( $160.47 )
Seat 6: Mahnzis ( $200 )
DrAntox posts small blind [$1]
JammyJenny posts big blind [$2]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to JammyJenny [ Ah, ]
AstonOE folds
Sevlow folds
Marino4ka raises to [$7]
DrAntox folds
JammyJenny calls [$5]
** Dealing Flop ** [ , , ]
JammyJenny checks
Marino4ka checks
** Dealing Turn ** [ ]
JammyJenny checks
Marino4ka bets [$11.25]
JammyJenny raises to [$28]
Marino4ka calls [$16.75]
** Dealing River ** [ ]

[George2Loose]

I'd be inclined to overbet in this spot once more esp. as you've done it recently.

I think his line suggests he has something- if you check he's likely to check behind imo.

Other line I might take is to lead small on the river so you get him to maybe c/raise when he does have air but he's likely to hero in this spot with a king if you bet big on the river given history

[AlexMartin]

I'd be inclined to overbet in this spot once more esp. as you've done it recently.

I think his line suggests he has something- if you check he's likely to check behind imo.

Other line I might take is to lead small on the river so you get him to maybe c/raise when he does have air but he's likely to hero in this spot with a king if you bet big on the river given history

what marginal hands do you think are in his range given turn action?

[George2Loose]

I'd be inclined to overbet in this spot once more esp. as you've done it recently.

I think his line suggests he has something- if you check he's likely to check behind imo.

Other line I might take is to lead small on the river so you get him to maybe c/raise when he does have air but he's likely to hero in this spot with a king if you bet big on the river given history

what marginal hands do you think are in his range given turn action?

Probably something like KQ/KJ/K10. if he's being stubborn maybe QQ/JJ/1010.

Obviously he could also have Ax but much more unlikey seeing as you have 2 of them

Is villian likely to bluff river if he does have a missed draw?

[AlexMartin]

I think he is likely to bluff a missed draw. Best play on balance is tough imo.

[George2Loose]

Yep very tough!

I still think he's likely to call off light so I over bet due to

1) Your recent overbet

2) The fact you didn't 3 bet pre with AA so your hand is massivley under repped

[In Form]

I think he has a hand along the lines of 

He will likely check behind for showdown value so a value bet ftw..

[Simon Galloway]

Not sure that you can goad him into anything spewy given this board and action through the streets, so bet ~$50 and hope for the best.

[daviebhoy]

It would of been interesting to see opinions had you shown the hand from villains perspective. I think it looks like you have a busted draw after semi-bluffing turn and that you should put in a decent value bet here as it will look so much like a bluff. Hard to imagine villain has anything other than Ax, Kx, QJc/QTc/TJc. I can't see him bluffing river after turn action so betting out has to be best.

[RichardL]

Ok, villain is a reg TAG, decent, runs at 22/18/3. I have a little history with him, this session i just overbet a river which got through about 10 hands before this.

On the river, is his range weighted towards draws or marginal made hands? Also, what is the best course of action for getting maximum value from the combined range of said hands?

***** Betfair Poker Hand History for Game 531822421 *****
NL $1/$2 Texas Hold'em - Friday, June 05, 22:34:00 GMT 2009
Table Oxygen 09 6-max (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of active players : 5
Seat 1: Marino4ka ( $186 )
Seat 2: DrAntox ( $195.05 )
Seat 3: JammyJenny ( $200 )
Seat 4: AstonOE ( $217.20 )
Seat 5: Sevlow ( $160.47 )
Seat 6: Mahnzis ( $200 )
DrAntox posts small blind [$1]
JammyJenny posts big blind [$2]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to JammyJenny [ Ah, ]
AstonOE folds
Sevlow folds
Marino4ka raises to [$7]
DrAntox folds
JammyJenny calls [$5]
** Dealing Flop ** [ , , ]
JammyJenny checks
Marino4ka checks
** Dealing Turn ** [ ]
JammyJenny checks
Marino4ka bets [$11.25]
JammyJenny raises to [$28]
Marino4ka calls [$16.75]
** Dealing River ** [ ]

I dont mean to be rude, but i must say that in my estimation this hand is butchered at about every possible point.

I really dont think there can be any justification being the last to act and just calling with aces pre (out of position too). You literally struggle to ever win a big pot with your aces this way. And in fact will end up losing a big pot far more often than you end up winning a big pot.

As played, i can see why you go for the flop check raise. Once he checks back, you should just bet quite big (3/4 pot ish) on the turn and the river. Once he checks behind this board it is unlikely he has total air - Put yourself in his position, if he has total air on the flop then this is a perfect flop for the pre flop raiser to bet at and take the pot down. So, once he checks i think its safe to assume he has some sort of weak made hand, as you suggest. So now i think you get paid betting decent sizes on the turn and river (he will call as long as the river doesnt scare him too much).

Going for the turn check raise seems to be really bad to me, and your bet size is too small to ever be taken by him as a flush or straight draw (with flush or straight draw you would be more inclined to go for either a decent sized lead out, a big check raise to maximise your fold equity).

On river i would just fire out a bet of about 2/3- 3/4 pot, with the hope he has a brain freeze and calls.

In conclusion, I dont think you need to over complicate this hand to the extent you did. The most unusual and creative methods of play often are not even close to the most profitable, and are mostly not profitable at all. It just makes no sense to ever flat aces here pre.

I am aware everyone misplays hands, and I am also aware that you are probably a very good player. However, in my opinion this hand is losing poker at every turn.

Disclaimer: I am terrible at poker and dont know what i am talking about, so if you disagree with what i have typed here then there is a significant chance that i am just plain wrong

[GreekStein]

Disclaimer: I am terrible at poker and dont know what i am talking about, so if you disagree with what i have typed here then there is a significant chance that i am just plain wrong

Stfu you win the absolute lot

[Steve Swift]

Excellent post again

FFS i have so much to learn, i thought it was all about closing my eyes and shoving

[dousche]

i think a draw CBs the flop, so i guess his hands are PPs and weak k's. that being so, i would normally go half-pot for value, but seeing as you overbet the river recently this might be more profitable. im struggling to find a hand that he bets with on the end so leading wins hands down for me