Deal or no deal

[bolt pp]

thought 14k was a horrible deal for any gambler, well under EV, but for normal people its too much money to risk losing with a chance of 10p in her box

then take 36k then, how much more could she have won with how the boxes were situated, pure greed and she wanted to take it

i meant her final deal

turning down 36k earlier with the board that strong I could understand, with the big few up top around, turning down 14k later was the right choice too

what was the board at the time, 100k up top with 4 boxes left, to get an increase she would have to have left 50k and 100k at the end, the 36k was a brilliant offer, it was an offer where she would moslty lose a big chunk of her offer rather than get a sizable increase, the 250k makes up so much of the equity its ridic, without that you should take 36k!!!!

4 boxes i think she had 50k 75k and 100k with the £10

even if she kept the 100k with £10 she wouldnt get an increase, if you say no to 36k there you HAVE to take out the £10 then even if you do depending on whats left how much of an increase % will you go with? i dont think its worth it.

[Cf]

It was

£10
£35,000
£50,000
£75,000
£100,000

Her offer was £32,000.

There's a 60% chance of having 2 reds to finish = more than £32,000.

£10 and £100,000 will prob be a stick, or slight drop. £10 and other red is obviously a drop, but one we can live with for the possibility of the red/red finish.

But importantly, we'll always be getting a £10,000+ offer.

Once you get to the end, yeah, £14,000 is a bit of an anti-climax. But now we're flipping between nothing and £50,000. Even tho it's clearly +EV to flip here you shouldn't be doing it unless you're sufficiently rich.

[Claw75]

It was

£10
£35,000
£50,000
£75,000
£100,000

Her offer was £32,000.

There's a 60% chance of having 2 reds to finish = more than £32,000.

£10 and £100,000 will prob be a stick, or slight drop. £10 and other red is obviously a drop, but one we can live with for the possibility of the red/red finish.

But importantly, we'll always be getting a £10,000+ offer.

Once you get to the end, yeah, £14,000 is a bit of an anti-climax. But now we're flipping between nothing and £50,000. Even tho it's clearly +EV to flip here you shouldn't be doing it unless you're sufficiently rich.

she then got offered 36k immediately after taking out the 35k box, then 27k after taking out the (I think) 75k box

[bolt pp]

It was

£10
£35,000
£50,000
£75,000
£100,000

Her offer was £32,000.

There's a 60% chance of having 2 reds to finish = more than £32,000.

£10 and £100,000 will prob be a stick, or slight drop. £10 and other red is obviously a drop, but one we can live with for the possibility of the red/red finish.

But importantly, we'll always be getting a £10,000+ offer.

Once you get to the end, yeah, £14,000 is a bit of an anti-climax. But now we're flipping between nothing and £50,000. Even tho it's clearly +EV to flip here you shouldn't be doing it unless you're sufficiently rich.

she then got offered 36k immediately after taking out the 25kk box

thats the one she should have 100% taken, my thinking is that if she leaves the £10 with any other red at the end then after having hugh offers the banker will force her to gamble with a small offer because he knows the big sums you just turned down are still in your head, with 36k locked up for the sake of getting 50 or 75k odd balanced against having to gamble and leaving with a tenner i think you have to take the 36k.