European Deepstack - Late Day 1

R8APK

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European Deepstack - Late Day 1

« on: February 15, 2010, 08:58:46 PM »

550 Euro Buy In

465 Runners

50,000 starting stack, blinds 50/100, 60 min clock

10 handed, 320 runners remain

Hero UTG+1 65k
Villian 1 Button 90k
Villian 2 BB 60k

Image:

Button – Defends button, often appears to float large flop c bets, passed a few times to the rere raise on flop. Very aggressive.

BB – Loosened up after very tight play for first 5 or 6 hours into play. Appeared to have made a couple of squeeze plays although not seen hand.

Hero – Tight image, misplayed a couple of key hands (playing them very timidly & weakly) – probably had image that could be outplayed (maybe its more than just an image lol!)

Blinds 700/1400 200 Ante

Hero (UTG+1) raises to 3,500 with AKdd

Button flats

BB flats

Flop 8d6s2d

Hero leads for 7k, Button calls, BB raises to 26k

What now?

Hero’s Plan/Thoughts:

Didn’t want to check and risk being checked round or either call to hit. Either way seemed like giving up the initiative and a c-bet may well pick up pot.

Betting out, if button raises, plan to jam(seen him pass on a couple of these occasions). If Button calls, then fire again if miss turn and fold to turn raise(not seen button make that move yet, without hand). If hit turn, check to induce bluff and call.

Is that thinking reasonable?

Anyway, the bb raise looked like squeeze play to me. My read was that he was not strong. His previous raises were much smaller – maybe very strong hand but he didn’t look comfortable. Also his raise amount looked like he was trying to look pot committed(actually probably was)….

Hero decided to jam, reckoning that button only calls 25% of time(sets), probably even folds any pair upto maybe Queens, especially in view of my tight image. So 75% of time he folds.

BB probably calls 50% of time, couldn’t really see any 2p combo’s, so up against trips or maybe draws or air. If up against strong hand still have flush outs. 50% time I reckon he folds.

Any views on those assumptions?

Anyone take me through the maths of that calculations?

The final thought, was that the chip leaders at the end of day 1 would be on around 250k, this pot could be 190k(ish). I reckoned I wasn’t in top skill level on my table so happy to gamble for a big pot.

Thoughts?


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AlexMartin

spewtards r us
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rat+rabbiting society of herts- future champ

Re: European Deepstack - Late Day 1

« Reply #1 on: February 15, 2010, 09:23:21 PM »

well, i got 1 hand in the air.........

Pre: 9*200+ 3500*3+700= 13000

Flop: 7k+7k+26k= 40k

53k dead. Thats as far as we realistically need to go this shallow.

If you want ill do the entire equity breakdown for you, its quite unnecessary given how much equity we have against his raising range though......

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

89,100 games 0.058 secs 1,536,206 games/sec

Board:

Dead:

   equity    win    tie      pots won    pots tied
Hand 0:    52.558%    52.56%    00.00%      46829      0.00 { AdKd }
Hand 1:    47.442%    47.44%    00.00%      42271      0.00 { 88+, 66, 22, QdJd, QdTd, 98s, 9d6d, 9s6s, 7d6d, 75s, 7d4d, 6d5d, 5d4d, 4d3d, A8o, T8o, 97o+ }

have to include a reasonable amount of junk, its in Ireland aint it?


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pleno1

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Posts: 19107

Re: European Deepstack - Late Day 1

« Reply #2 on: February 15, 2010, 09:28:13 PM »

Quote from: AlexMartin on February 15, 2010, 09:23:21 PM

well, i got 1 hand in the air.........

you need help raising your other one or is it stuck somewhere.

shove shove and shove. people raise/fold this flop with like a8, 99/10/10 other random crap.