Bubble spot

[Nico29]

Bubble Spot

Just wanted some opinions on this hand, i'm pretty sure ICM wise it's a no brainer but i'd like a more general view, especially as it's a live donkament.

Background

14 left, with two 7 handed tables, in a £200 event with a 40 minute decent structure.

Blinds are 1200-2400 with a 200 ante i belive, tho this could be 300.

Average is about 60k. (25bbs, M=12)

Deal has just been mooted for bubble but chip leader has refused, something i actually liked due to the short stack and how many nits were left.

My stack is about 80k (33bbs, M=16), one player has about 10k and is next to be in the bb.

Villain with 70k (29bbs, M=14)  on the button is an older gent who has been playing uber tight the whole time i'd been on his table for the prev 2 hours. He's only played one hand of note when he'd 5xd opened ak and won a flip against 77-not me.

My image is reasonable, i've doubled up with aces but have also opened a lot, been 3 betting, sometimes light, sometimes not- with varied success.

Also of note is that the sb is the chip leader with 150k+ and is a big lag, obv restricts button's opening range.

Hand

Villain opens button to 11k, SB folds and I look down at JJ in the BB.

Wwyd?

[DMorgan]

Pretty gross, I think his raise sizing is the classic nit 'omg I don't wanna see a flop 'cos I might lose so I wanna raise huge and win the pot right now'.

That being said I do think that his opening range is pretty strong here. The fact that he's on the button doesn't really come into it imo because from your reads he wouldn't seem to be aware of how light he can raise profitably from the button and he's just playing his cards.

I feel like a filthy nit for saying it but I think this could be the one time I'd ever just fold pre. If we had any reason to believe that he's raising wide then I like a jam but I just don't think that he's raising wide enough to do that and since his raise is so huge we can't 3bet/fold.

[outragous76]

Pretty gross, I think his raise sizing is the classic nit 'omg I don't wanna see a flop 'cos I might lose so I wanna raise huge and win the pot right now'.

That being said I do think that his opening range is pretty strong here. The fact that he's on the button doesn't really come into it imo because from your reads he wouldn't seem to be aware of how light he can raise profitably from the button and he's just playing his cards.

I feel like a filthy nit for saying it but I think this could be the one time I'd ever just fold pre. If we had any reason to believe that he's raising wide then I like a jam but I just don't think that he's raising wide enough to do that and since his raise is so huge we can't 3bet/fold.

quoting it just incase you try to delete! 

[Nico29]

Ridiculous post Dan. Shove and see him fold AQ face up.

My keys yr always saying such bubble spots like these are times to nit up due to ICM nope?

We are pretty much guaranteed to make the money here and push on from there if we fold this nope?

As u know ICM has always not exactly always been my strong point and exploiting the bubble is normally something i greatly enjoy.

Pretty gross, I think his raise sizing is the classic nit 'omg I don't wanna see a flop 'cos I might lose so I wanna raise huge and win the pot right now'.

That being said I do think that his opening range is pretty strong here. The fact that he's on the button doesn't really come into it imo because from your reads he wouldn't seem to be aware of how light he can raise profitably from the button and he's just playing his cards.

I feel like a filthy nit for saying it but I think this could be the one time I'd ever just fold pre. If we had any reason to believe that he's raising wide then I like a jam but I just don't think that he's raising wide enough to do that and since his raise is so huge we can't 3bet/fold.

So far i'm preferring this line but might be being a bit results based.

[DMorgan]

Ridiculous post Dan. Shove and see him fold AQ face up.

In this spot vs a live nit I really think that we're not doing great against his range. Obv online, readless or with any read other than this its a snapshove but if he has literally played one hand in 2 hours, why would he choose now to start opening a bit lighter?

I'm not saying its a snapfold by any means and it would feel pretty dirty but I don't think that folding here vs this villain is really bad.

In game I'm not folding but in theory I think its at least plausible

[DMorgan]

edit: reinventing wheel sigh. nice post Dan.

heh, I think its just another one of those spots thats only ever gunna come up live and that people rarely look into because online you're pretty much never gunna be up against such a nitty opening range.

fwiw I think that 3bet jamming too light against nitty villains in live tournaments is one of the biggest leak of players making the transition from online to live. Its definitely one that I've struggled with, lamenting how gross it is when I jam 15bbs over a CO open and running into what I'd imagine to be the top of the guys range when in reality his range is so tight that jamming light is a big leak.

[Nico29]

Cheers guys.

Tbh if it's not an ICM disaseter which i'd actually suspected then im glad.

Thus i suppose i shld be happy i jammed it up him after 1.11 secs thought and walked into zee bullets.

What range out of interest do you think we need to make a shove profitable here against his range? I for one wld def have insta folded 9's/aq here against this nit but wld have felt concerned with tens and ak.

ICM wise yr right about the fact that we r shipping not calling here james, my bad again.

Online obv its just going in and im not even thinking about it.