100NLHU facing river shove against aggro villain

[pleno1]

Every single time I've 3bet he has raised my cbet. He quite passive pre flop, but aggro post. Thoughts on my river raise? Comes out with some weird river value lines such as... Guy is-8bb/100 over 30k+ hands at 50/100nl. He bet river really quickly, an tanked forever when I raised. Whenever he raised me on the flop in 3bet pots he did it reallllly quickly. He had chased gutshots on 2 streets previously but havn't seen him when he had been on flush/combo draws.

Full Tilt Poker Game #26857487289: Table Wings (heads up, deep) - $0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em - 11:51:47 ET - 2010/12/31
Seat 1: pads1161 ($199.90)
Seat 2: jackstrop15 ($342.50)
pads1161 posts the small blind of $0.50
jackstrop15 posts the big blind of $1
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to pads1161 [ ]
pads1161 has 15 seconds left to act
pads1161 raises to $3
jackstrop15 calls $2
*** FLOP *** [ ]
jackstrop15 checks
pads1161 bets $4
jackstrop15 has 15 seconds left to act
jackstrop15 calls $4
*** TURN *** [ ] []
jackstrop15 checks
pads1161 bets $9
jackstrop15 calls $9
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
jackstrop15 has 15 seconds left to act
jackstrop15 bets $15
pads1161 calls $15
*** SHOW DOWN ***
jackstrop15 shows [ ] two pair, Queens and Jacks
pads1161 mucks
jackstrop15 wins the pot ($61.50) with two pair, Queens and Jacks
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $62 | Rake $0.50
Board: [ ]
Seat 1: pads1161 (small blind) mucked [ ] - two pair, Jacks and Eights
Seat 2: jackstrop15 (big blind) showed [ ] and won ($61.50) with two pair, Queens and Jacks

Oh think this is important hand too, happened around 20 hands earlier.

Full Tilt Poker Game #26857273178: Table Wings (heads up, deep) - $0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em - 11:41:37 ET - 2010/12/31
Seat 1: pads1161 ($186.40)
Seat 2: jackstrop15 ($130.75)
jackstrop15 posts the small blind of $0.50
pads1161 posts the big blind of $1
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to pads1161 [ ]
jackstrop15 raises to $3
pads1161 calls $2
*** FLOP *** [ ]
pads1161 checks
jackstrop15 bets $4.50
pads1161 calls $4.50
*** TURN *** [ ] []
pads1161 checks
jackstrop15 bets $12.50
pads1161 has 15 seconds left to act
pads1161 raises to $28
jackstrop15 calls $15.50
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
pads1161 checks
jackstrop15 checks
*** SHOW DOWN ***
pads1161 shows [ ] a pair of Jacks
jackstrop15 shows [ ] three of a kind, Jacks
jackstrop15 wins the pot ($70.50) with three of a kind, Jacks
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $71 | Rake $0.50
Board: [ ]
Seat 1: pads1161 (big blind) showed [ ] and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 2: jackstrop15 (small blind) showed [ ] and won ($70.50) with three of a kind, Jacks

and

Full Tilt Poker Game #26857747475: Table Wings (heads up, deep) - $0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em - 12:05:30 ET - 2010/12/31
Seat 1: pads1161 ($230.60)
Seat 2: jackstrop15 ($339.30)
pads1161 posts the small blind of $0.50
jackstrop15 posts the big blind of $1
The button is in seat #1
pads1161: ok thats fine
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to pads1161 [ ]
pads1161 raises to $3
jackstrop15 calls $2
*** FLOP *** [ ]
jackstrop15 checks
pads1161 has 15 seconds left to act
pads1161 bets $4
jackstrop15 calls $4
*** TURN *** [ ] []
jackstrop15 checks
pads1161 checks
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
jackstrop15 bets $12
pads1161 calls $12
*** SHOW DOWN ***
jackstrop15 shows [ ] two pair, Sevens and Sixes
pads1161 shows [ ] a straight, Eight high
pads1161 wins the pot ($37.50) with a straight, Eight high
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $38 | Rake $0.50
Board: [ ]
Seat 1: pads1161 (small blind) showed [ ] and won ($37.50) with a straight, Eight high
Seat 2: jackstrop15 (big blind) showed [ ] and lost with two pair, Sevens and Sixes
....


Full Tilt Poker Game #26857352836: Table Wings (heads up, deep) - $0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em - 11:45:26 ET - 2010/12/31
Seat 1: pads1161 ($190)
Seat 2: jackstrop15 ($170.45)
pads1161 posts the small blind of $0.50
jackstrop15 posts the big blind of $1
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to pads1161 [ ]
pads1161 raises to $3
jackstrop15 calls $2
*** FLOP *** [ ]
jackstrop15 checks
pads1161 has 15 seconds left to act
pads1161 bets $4
jackstrop15 calls $4
*** TURN *** [ ] []
jackstrop15 checks
pads1161 bets $11
jackstrop15 calls $11
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
jackstrop15 bets $30
pads1161 has 15 seconds left to act
pads1161 has requested TIME
pads1161 raises to $83
jackstrop15 has 15 seconds left to act
jackstrop15 has requested TIME
jackstrop15 raises to $152.45, and is all in
Pads1161 fucks his life.

[pleno1]

Sorry about the TL;DR post and all the hands but think they all kinda important.

[titaniumbean]

With 5 red i'd prob press the middle one that when facing an all in moves to the right if you get me.

feel free to fold here but it will haunt your dreams :p

[pleno1]

I've spoke to 4-5 people who I all class as good players and they all say to call, but I really really really think its a fold, and when I raised to $83 it was with the intention of folding to a shove.

[titaniumbean]

How good is your oppo, how often is he bluffing here.



I repeat, we have 5 of red.

[cambridgealex]

i think i'm with you Dr. Leno. I'm pretty sure this is never a bluff. So we have to think about hands he would play like this for value. Given your river line with the 84 hand (which I really don't understand), he has to think you have a very strong hand or a bluff when you raise to 83. So would he 3bet jam the river with a set or straight? I don't think so. He has to have a flush. What flush combos do we beat?  85hh is the only one. Even that he may not take this river line with. If your flatting $12 with the 2nd nut straight OTR in the 84 hand, he has to think that to raise this river (which is on a vsimilar board texture), you have the nut straight or better (or a bluff). So for him to 3bet jam, if he is logical, game theory dictates he has a flush. And probably a good one. Forget about the price you're getting on the river. This is a flush 100% and there's one combo that you beat, and loads you don't. Fold.

A lot of this is based on the assumption that he is not a complete spas and has paid attention to your play in the previous hands. The thing that might change my mind is that you said he's come out with weird river value lines, but without more detail as to what they've been, I didn't take that into my thought process too much. Good post.

[pleno1]

i think i'm with you Dr. Leno. I'm pretty sure this is never a bluff. So we have to think about hands he would play like this for value. Given your river line with the 84 hand (which I really don't understand), he has to think you have a very strong hand or a bluff when you raise to 83. So would he 3bet jam the river with a set or straight? I don't think so. He has to have a flush. What flush combos do we beat?  85hh is the only one. Even that he may not take this river line with. If your flatting $12 with the 2nd nut straight OTR in the 84 hand, he has to think that to raise this river (which is on a vsimilar board texture), you have the nut straight or better (or a bluff). So for him to 3bet jam, if he is logical, game theory dictates he has a flush. And probably a good one. Forget about the price you're getting on the river. This is a flush 100% and there's one combo that you beat, and loads you don't. Fold.

A lot of this is based on the assumption that he is not a complete spas and has paid attention to your play in the previous hands. The thing that might change my mind is that you said he's come out with weird river value lines, but without more detail as to what they've been, I didn't take that into my thought process too much. Good post.

Hi Alex, I think with the 84 hand, its relatively standard to call. I often go for thin value raises and on certain boards will raise 2nd pair for value but thought on this board he had mainly draws that got there and were beating me and draws that missed. Sometimes he will have 2 pair but with the scaryish board I thought he would c/c these and if he did bet for value I thought he would fold to a raise.

The weird river value line that I meant was the QQ. Very passive pre, flop, turn and then bets river when board double pairs. Giving his line in the hand I actually q like it as I'd call with K/A high alot as it stunk of a missed straight draw, but if this hand shows anything its that he is at least not playing 100% straightforward. It can also show us that he might be potentially scared of playing big pots as he didnt 3bet pre. It alsssssoooo shows us that he can tarrrrrrp so that in this hand he could potentially have a set, which is one of the reasons why I went for the raise OTR. Thoughts on my river raise and sizing? It was in no way to induce and was expecting a call like 1000x that I thought he'd raise as I really thought he would only 3bet shove the nut flush in this spot.

[cambridgealex]

Hi Alex, I think with the 84 hand, its relatively standard to call. I often go for thin value raises and on certain boards will raise 2nd pair for value but thought on this board he had mainly draws that got there and were beating me and draws that missed.

only 89 surely? He has 2pair soooo often here I really think you've missed value here.

Sometimes he will have 2 pair but with the scaryish board I thought he would c/c these and if he did bet for value I thought he would fold to a raise.

Just because he'd probably fold to raise doesn't mean you shouldn't raise. Would you ever bluff raise the river in this spot? I'd imagine so, and I think he'd call it off with 2pair sometimes. There's always 34 as well.

Thoughts on my river raise and sizing? It was in no way to induce and was expecting a call like 1000x that I thought he'd raise as I really thought he would only 3bet shove the nut flush in this spot.

I'd expect a call or fold 100% too. Oh well.

Thoughts on my river raise and sizing?

I LOVE IT

[SuuPRlim]

my main reason for wanting to call is that if your raise folding here vs good players u can get absolutley pwned and will cost u a fortune.

wat flush are you raise calling? only nuts or like J/Q high? raise folding just sees wrong but agreed he most likely has you beat here