Deep in DTD550....Flame Away.

[edgascoigne]

This could get messy, but I'm going to put it up here largely as a therapeutic exercise in purgatory.

DTD £550, £217k in the prize pool. We are in the money, with 25 left out of a field of 433. Average stack is 520k.

Background

I am a young, aggressive player. I came into Day two with 195k (avg. c110k), ran like God for the first couple of hours or so to get up to c650k. I have shown down nothing but the nuts at this point. I then lose a bit of momentum, get up to a peak of c800k when QQ > A8 open jam for c150k.

Since then in about an hour and a half I have 3b folded twice and lost two flips for c150k a pop in very standard spots.

I will certainly be viewed as aggro, but I don't think I've really been making mistakes...

The Hand

As they balance tables we are 6-handed I believe. Kenny Prazer (sp?) is SB, Shola BB playing c350k and c450k respectively. Blinds are 12k-24k with an ante of 3k. I am playing 515k.

I open the CO to 50k with A-5o. Wadey (playing c900k) flats the button. Now, oddly, both blinds also flat.

Pot is 218k

Flop: J - 7 - 3 rainbow

Both blinds check and I (gulp) jam 465k as a massive overbet.



Your thoughts please, and do feel free to flame

[chatban]

I really think we should fold this pre. When the blinds have like 10-15bbs i really tighten up my opening range inyour spot esp with chip leader on your left. Air balling into 3 players is really spewy. But you know that anyway probs!

I think in these spots we can get a bit carried away in these kind of comps.

[SuuPRlim]

Honestly I really hate it, we're basically just punting and that's not how we should play poker tournaments, there is no need to win every hand.

Wadey could have flatted strong looking for a squeeze from the blinds and people do have some jacks in there ranges pf. KJ.QJ.JT.J9.J8 etc

fire a tony C-bet or just c/f, c/f prolly for the best really just depends on how "clingy" the players are, I think the open is fine preflop but only if Wadey isn't making a big habbit of peeling opens and as long as the blinds are playing fairly tight/straightforward.

[tikay]

FWIW, Kenny Prazer (SB), a really lovely kid who smiles all day & night, will flat almost any raise with a very wide range indeed. Not that it helps answer the question much.....

[cambridgealex]

Honestly I really hate it, we're basically just punting and that's not how we should play poker tournaments, there is no need to win every hand.

Wadey could have flatted strong looking for a squeeze from the blinds and people do have some jacks in there ranges pf. KJ.QJ.JT.J9.J8 etc

fire a tony C-bet or just c/f, c/f prolly for the best really just depends on how "clingy" the players are, I think the open is fine preflop but only if Wadey isn't making a big habbit of peeling opens and as long as the blinds are playing fairly tight/straightforward.

This man gets it.

[chatban]

FWIW, Kenny Prazer (SB), a really lovely kid who smiles all day & night, will flat almost any raise with a very wide range indeed. Not that it helps answer the question much.....

Its pretty terrible hes doing that with his stack size oop to 3 people post flop with just over a pot size bet left.

[SuuPRlim]

FWIW, Kenny Prazer (SB), a really lovely kid who smiles all day & night, will flat almost any raise with a very wide range indeed. Not that it helps answer the question much.....

maybe a good spot not to open the A5, depends how he plays postflop a bit, but when I'm pretty likely to get peeled I think I'd wanna open something that flops a little better.

Actually I've just realised we have 22 big blinds, I think I DEFO fold preflop with the reads on the SB

[edgascoigne]

Honestly I really hate it, we're basically just punting and that's not how we should play poker tournaments, there is no need to win every hand.

Wadey could have flatted strong looking for a squeeze from the blinds and people do have some jacks in there ranges pf. KJ.QJ.JT.J9.J8 etc

fire a tony C-bet or just c/f, c/f prolly for the best really just depends on how "clingy" the players are, I think the open is fine preflop but only if Wadey isn't making a big habbit of peeling opens and as long as the blinds are playing fairly tight/straightforward.

I couldn't agree more re: the bolded.

Realistically, the move is a complete brain fart. I'll explain the 'logic' that led me to make the move so at least I can see if it's vaguely correct or completely flawed.

1) Once I open and Wadey flats I would expect the blinds to jam anything 66+, AJ+ and Broadways.
2) Given the fact Wadey thinks knows I'm a little bit wrong in the head I think he would small 3b a premium to induce a shove from me.
3) I'm betting 465k to win 218k in a pot where I have essentially no equity. Out of the unknown 47 cards in the deck, 3 are jacks meaning, assuming perfectly open calling ranges (which is obv incorrect) there is an 18/47 chance that one of the 3 players in the hand has a Jack.
4) I've discounted broadways containing a jack as above from the blinds (which obv may be wrong)
5) So....and this is the leap of faith, and Dave as you correctly say "essentially punting", I can only lose the hand to an unlikely hero with a random 7 from the blinds, or if Wadey has flopped a jack?
6) Even if Wadey has flopped a jack, and even with him perceiving me as a mentalist, he's still being asked to call off 465k out of c850k with what is probably a mid-strength jack as I expect he would 3b AJ.

Is this even close to a reasonable piece of analysis?

[edgascoigne]

FWIW, Kenny Prazer (SB), a really lovely kid who smiles all day & night, will flat almost any raise with a very wide range indeed. Not that it helps answer the question much.....

maybe a good spot not to open the A5, depends how he plays postflop a bit, but when I'm pretty likely to get peeled I think I'd wanna open something that flops a little better.

Actually I've just realised we have 22 big blinds, I think I DEFO fold preflop with the reads on the SB

Kenny had been folding to a lot of opens fwiw. Seemed fairly exasperated about doing so constantly turning over a 2/3/4 when his BB got raised.

[muckthenuts]

Raise/folding pre is spew. Two reship stacks who don't need a hand and we're pretty short ourselves with a bad image apparently.

Giving up post, but it further exemplifies why it's a bad idea to open light here since with stacks we have no room to manoeuvre post.  

[muckthenuts]

Honestly I really hate it, we're basically just punting and that's not how we should play poker tournaments, there is no need to win every hand.

Wadey could have flatted strong looking for a squeeze from the blinds and people do have some jacks in there ranges pf. KJ.QJ.JT.J9.J8 etc

fire a tony C-bet or just c/f, c/f prolly for the best really just depends on how "clingy" the players are, I think the open is fine preflop but only if Wadey isn't making a big habbit of peeling opens and as long as the blinds are playing fairly tight/straightforward.

I couldn't agree more re: the bolded.

Realistically, the move is a complete brain fart. I'll explain the 'logic' that led me to make the move so at least I can see if it's vaguely correct or completely flawed.

1) Once I open and Wadey flats I would expect the blinds to jam anything 66+, AJ+ and Broadways.
2) Given the fact Wadey thinks knows I'm a little bit wrong in the head I think he would small 3b a premium to induce a shove from me.
3) I'm betting 465k to win 218k in a pot where I have essentially no equity. Out of the unknown 47 cards in the deck, 3 are jacks meaning, assuming perfectly open calling ranges (which is obv incorrect) there is an 18/47 chance that one of the 3 players in the hand has a Jack.
4) I've discounted broadways containing a jack as above from the blinds (which obv may be wrong)
5) So....and this is the leap of faith, and Dave as you correctly say "essentially punting", I can only lose the hand to an unlikely hero with a random 7 from the blinds, or if Wadey has flopped a jack?
6) Even if Wadey has flopped a jack, and even with him perceiving me as a mentalist, he's still being asked to call off 465k out of c850k with what is probably a mid-strength jack as I expect he would 3b AJ.

Is this even close to a reasonable piece of analysis?

I don't think a 7 is a hero at all, your hand looks so weak mate. The board is dry and your percieved range is super wide - there's absolutely no hand you'd realistically shove here for value.

[edgascoigne]

Honestly I really hate it, we're basically just punting and that's not how we should play poker tournaments, there is no need to win every hand.

Wadey could have flatted strong looking for a squeeze from the blinds and people do have some jacks in there ranges pf. KJ.QJ.JT.J9.J8 etc

fire a tony C-bet or just c/f, c/f prolly for the best really just depends on how "clingy" the players are, I think the open is fine preflop but only if Wadey isn't making a big habbit of peeling opens and as long as the blinds are playing fairly tight/straightforward.

I couldn't agree more re: the bolded.

Realistically, the move is a complete brain fart. I'll explain the 'logic' that led me to make the move so at least I can see if it's vaguely correct or completely flawed.

1) Once I open and Wadey flats I would expect the blinds to jam anything 66+, AJ+ and Broadways.
2) Given the fact Wadey thinks knows I'm a little bit wrong in the head I think he would small 3b a premium to induce a shove from me.
3) I'm betting 465k to win 218k in a pot where I have essentially no equity. Out of the unknown 47 cards in the deck, 3 are jacks meaning, assuming perfectly open calling ranges (which is obv incorrect) there is an 18/47 chance that one of the 3 players in the hand has a Jack.
4) I've discounted broadways containing a jack as above from the blinds (which obv may be wrong)
5) So....and this is the leap of faith, and Dave as you correctly say "essentially punting", I can only lose the hand to an unlikely hero with a random 7 from the blinds, or if Wadey has flopped a jack?
6) Even if Wadey has flopped a jack, and even with him perceiving me as a mentalist, he's still being asked to call off 465k out of c850k with what is probably a mid-strength jack as I expect he would 3b AJ.

Is this even close to a reasonable piece of analysis?

I don't think a 7 is a hero at all, your hand looks so weak mate. The board is dry and your percieved range is super wide - there's absolutely no hand you'd realistically shove here for value.

Agreed re: a 7 not being a hero...though I do actually think a 7 would pass even though I'm repping nothing.

Also agreed re: no hand I'd shove for value. *hangs head*

[gouty]

fold pre for me

this flop is so dry that you should be able find out where you are/take it down with a fairly small bet? Then give up. This actually should appear stronger than shoving imo. I cant think of a hand we can have that we shove in this spot.

This deep in a decent tourney like this can be a lot to do with dynamics tho I suppose. Much easier to think straight afterwards too.

[cambridgealex]

updates said two hearts? and said you had the  which makes a difference.

[edgascoigne]

updates said two hearts? and said you had the  which makes a difference.

99% sure updates were incorrect and was a rainbow board.

(Not a slur on updates incidentally as the job the updaters do is (a) brilliant and (b) nigh on impossible)