Approaching the bubble..

[MahoganyVic]

The big Sunday tournament on betfair.  120ish left, top 80odd get paid.

Average stack is $25k, I have $14k, everyone on table covers, but all less than $30k except BB who has $50k.

Table has not seen many flops, with prob 90% of hands in the last half hour being either raises to take the blinds, or reshoves on a raise to take it down pre.


Blinds $400/$800/whatever ante is


I'm in SB with 88

UTG min raises to $1600, CO and button both call making pot about $6k.

UTG has not shown any card since being at the table, but has yet to make a raise. Basically spent all his time folding since was moved in too the seat.


I flat called for $1200


BB shoves all in. He has been very aggressive with restealing preflop.  Folded around to me.

$22k in the pot with $12k in my stack to call.



Firstly, what should i have done when it came to me on the min raise. Secondly, what would you do when he shoves.   I called, hoping for him to turnover a big ace, but was pretty clueless what to do

[Solaris]

Fold AINEC.

[outragous76]

Rejam  pre, don't call off this stack

[Pinchop73]

Either fold or Jam.

It's a sigh fold.

[Junior Senior]

Jam when had chance. Fold as played

[Doobs]

who is the BB?

Looks a call to me.  You are getting close to 2/1 when probably at least 45% vs his range.  You can't be calling the raise and then folding the jam off this stack.   

As others have said jamming first time is probably best.

[cambridgealex]

Probably folding to the min, given what you've said about utg, and folding would probably be my default unless utg was opening wideish and the flatters were on the fishy side with wide ranges. Defo never peeling a flop off out of this stack, that is by far the worst option.

As played, easy fold.

[MahoganyVic]

Cheers for the replies

[Doobs]

As I see it this has become an easy maths problem. 

You need to be about 35% vs his range to call.  It is a little more because of ICM, but not much more.

If I give him 66+, ATs+, AJ+ and KQs, I am around 45%.  This looks a pretty nitty range for a big stack near the bubble.  You have 35% vs QQ+ and AK which is super nit territory.  To even get dowm to that you have to be assuming he really does the big jam with aces.

Hence if he is a super nit then you could sigh fold, otherwise grow a pair.

Of course we could reprise the I wouldn't start here joke, but we are where we are.