Should we empty the clip?

[Honeybadger]

Dan, there are two separate lines of argument in what you have said in your last few posts. To avoid confusion I will state these:

1. Taking a call turn, call river line is often going to be the most +EV line for villain in this sort of spot.

2. It is pretty likely that villain is going to take a call turn, call river line with his made hands in this spot.

The above two points are obviously related, but are actually two separate questions. And in fact it is only number 2 that is directly relevant to this thread. Nevertheless I will discuss both points below. I hate always arguing with people whose game I highly respect and who I like as people too ... but I really think you are wrong in both these arguments:

1. Ok first line of argument - is it a good play for villain to call turn, call river with something like AA, KT or TT in this spot? I have never played with Sean and know nothing about his ranges or how he plays. If you are saying "Based on how he plays, Sean always has a draw in this spot, it doesn't even need to be a premium draw, and he always fires the river when he misses too" - well then call turn, call river is marginally the most +EV line for an opponent to take vs him; although actually it is still close due to the small SPR on the turn. This is not what you are saying, however - instead you are arguing that Sean is 'only semi-bluffing strong combo draws' on the flop. To be honest, this undermines your argument rather than supports it. This is because if hero's only draws on the turn are the super high equity ones (AdQd, AdJd, QdJd, Jd9d and so on) then by far the best line for villain is to jam the turn. I have actually made this point already, and it is not really especially close or difficult to understand since it is based on fact that the SPR is low and hero only needs 27% equity to call a jam. Basically, if villain jams hero will have to sigh-call, so villain can get all the money in now and get full value for his hand.

2. Are players ever likely to call turn, call river with strong made hands in this spot? The thing is, even if argument 1 above were true (it isn't), it would not really matter ... because almost no-one is ever going to actually play this way in game. Like I said, put yourself in villain's place, imagine you were playing the hand. On the turn you will notice that the pot is 740 and remaining stacks are only 400. You will also see the ridiculously wet board texture. There is no way you - or anyone else competent - will just flat the turn with a made hand that you wish to take to SD.

Which means that villain's range is VERY heavily weighted towards draws himself. Which means that if we did not have A-high we should jam the river to make him fold. Villain will simply never have enough made hands in his range and will fold super often. And which also means that, since in this hand we actually have the nuts no pair, we can likely check-call instead since we don't need to bluff out a better no pair hand, and so can try to make money from opponent's bluffs.


N.B. Re argument 1... I just want to note something else. If Sean's range for check-raising the turn really is only monster combo draws like AdQd/QdJd, and sets.... well villains should actually fold AA, AK etc to the flop check-raise. Sean would have 6 combos of sets (assuming he can never have KK here) and only a few combos of combo draws, so AA has terrible equity and terrible reverse implied odds to boot. Now I am not saying that anyone should actually make this fold in real life... I am just saying that if your assumptions about Sean's range are true then this is logically what villain should do. In practice hero will have a wider range than this unless he is a nit, for example he will have some weaker draws that he cannot check-call with so uses to bluff with. This isn't an important point, I am just saying...

[DMorgan]

I'd prefer to call it a discussion than an argument but I have definitely seen the light. As I said I'm not on my desktop so I can't run any calculations but I'll definitely be having a look at a few of the variables like how much bigger the SPR needs to be or how many bluff combos Hero needs to have and with what frequency he needs to fire river to make call/call > jam turn but from your enthusiasm for the topic I guess it's gunna need hero to be a complete lunatic and even all of the naked draw combos thrown in and a SPR of 1 OTR might not be enough!


I'm pretty sure my default play here was jam turn but consider calling, a few posts ago I muddled myself into definitely call/calling and now I'm definitely just jamming and being happy about it. Good job I didn't play yesterday!

Can you tell that I don't play many 3bet pots in position? Heads up ftw!

Are you gunna be punting at the ukipt?

[Honeybadger]

Yes Dan. I will no doubt be contributing some dead money to the UKIPT prize fund. I have been putting in some serious live tournament volume this year... I have already played one this year! And if/when I enter the UKIPT in April that will be two tourneys in the first 4 months of 2012 - which makes me feel like a full on grinder considering I only played 3 live tourneys in the whole of 2011.

[SuuPRlim]

Stu, is call flop/jam turn better than 3bet flop with AA/AK? Given all the assumptions we have made about Sean, given that on the turn the SPR is going to be that jamming will be our preferable move and the draws he c/r calls the flop with will all have enough equity to call, and we expect his c/r folding range otf to have reasonable equity?

I guess the crux of that argument is EXACTLY what he bluffs with OTF, and how he behaves OTT with this range.

A possible c/r bluffing range

AQs (1 if we have AA and 2 if we have AK) QJs (3) AJs (1 or 2) J9s exJ9dd (3) 97ss (1) 67dd (1) 56dd (1) JTs (3) 9Ts (3) 89s (3) 78s (3) (would actually be cool to hear people's thoughts about bluffing with these last three, I think these are really reeally good hands to bluff with, because you're equity is slightly better vs the mega draws, you have a set blocker and half decent equity, but OOP vs uncapped range it's a terrible range to be bluff catching with given how much equity his bluffing range has vs us) I would make that 25 combos, although I think he only bluffs these ~50% of the time and folds them the others (12)

Running turn equity Sim this range will have 25% equity (roughly what he'll need to make a break-even turn bet.call) 12% of the time

that his legit value raising combo's are slim (he has TT 88 KTs T8s) 11 combo's but I think he'd fold KTs and T8s preflop some % I could only guess but I'd say that would remove 2-3 combos. His "value" draws are AQ AJ QJ KQ KJ dd, J9 and Q9 are interesting, going to include those as 1 (would like your opinion on those hands as well actually!) (6)

So I make that a range of 12 bluff combo's and 14 raise call combo's so he's going fold 46% of the time to our fold 3bet. I did I shove equity calc on just straight up jamming (I know it sounds ridic)

Click to see full-size image.

So it says we make 218 by just jamming right there and then - I can't imagine if this is actually accurate, I have no idea personally.

Interestingly I ran a few diff hands, AA(no diamond) was the worst hand to jam, AK with the was the best. AK>AA here, but only just.

So I guess the fine point of it is the frequency with which he bet/folds the c/r-folding hands on the turn, if he doesn't consistently bet those hands OTT is raising the flop going to be a better play than call/jam, we deny him his equity (16% vs AA/AK) and the 12% of the time he can make a breakeven turn bet/call and we make money vs Sean's overall bet/call range providing our assumptions about his bluffs and value raises are correct?

[cambridgealex]

Great discussion guys.

[rfgqqabc]

Stu, is call flop/jam turn better than 3bet flop with AA/AK? Given all the assumptions we have made about Sean, given that on the turn the SPR is going to be that jamming will be our preferable move and the draws he c/r calls the flop with will all have enough equity to call, and we expect his c/r folding range otf to have reasonable equity?

I guess the crux of that argument is EXACTLY what he bluffs with OTF, and how he behaves OTT with this range.

A possible c/r bluffing range

AQs (1 if we have AA and 2 if we have AK) QJs (3) AJs (1 or 2) J9s exJ9dd (3) 97ss (1) 67dd (1) 56dd (1) JTs (3) 9Ts (3) 89s (3) 78s (3) (would actually be cool to hear people's thoughts about bluffing with these last three, I think these are really reeally good hands to bluff with, because you're equity is slightly better vs the mega draws, you have a set blocker and half decent equity, but OOP vs uncapped range it's a terrible range to be bluff catching with given how much equity his bluffing range has vs us) I would make that 25 combos, although I think he only bluffs these ~50% of the time and folds them the others (12)

Running turn equity Sim this range will have 25% equity (roughly what he'll need to make a break-even turn bet.call) 12% of the time

that his legit value raising combo's are slim (he has TT 88 KTs T8s) 11 combo's but I think he'd fold KTs and T8s preflop some % I could only guess but I'd say that would remove 2-3 combos. His "value" draws are AQ AJ QJ KQ KJ dd, J9 and Q9 are interesting, going to include those as 1 (would like your opinion on those hands as well actually!) (6)

So I make that a range of 12 bluff combo's and 14 raise call combo's so he's going fold 46% of the time to our fold 3bet. I did I shove equity calc on just straight up jamming (I know it sounds ridic)

Click to see full-size image.

So it says we make 218 by just jamming right there and then - I can't imagine if this is actually accurate, I have no idea personally.

Interestingly I ran a few diff hands, AA(no diamond) was the worst hand to jam, AK with the was the best. AK>AA here, but only just.

So I guess the fine point of it is the frequency with which he bet/folds the c/r-folding hands on the turn, if he doesn't consistently bet those hands OTT is raising the flop going to be a better play than call/jam, we deny him his equity (16% vs AA/AK) and the 12% of the time he can make a breakeven turn bet/call and we make money vs Sean's overall bet/call range providing our assumptions about his bluffs and value raises are correct?

All looked solid until i saw this!

Fantastic discussion guys, i just woke up and its taking a lot to go in, but I'm going to save this thread away and read it over and over

[smashedagain]

Lildave gets plenty of pie in Vegas. Both classic American apple pie and good old hairy pie. Mbsfn

[outragous76]

Mm mmmmmmmm pie!

Er...... What was the question again?

[SuuPRlim]

Just to clarify following a PM from Stu - my post is a bit all over the place I'm not really evaluating anything, I'm sort of asking a few questions that have come to me ITT and throwing them at Stu hoping he'll pop another masterfully worded (geeky) GTO post out explaining some things I realise as well I was kind of asking a question then saying  "Is this the answer" but I was literally just typing a thought process as I had it and was focusing much on structuring the post that well hence why it's all a bit mumbo-jumbo

The questions I was offering were,

1) Do we think a flop 3bet from our villain is a better play than to flat and jam over a turn bet

2) Does the answer to this one hinge on what range Sean has that c/r-folds the flop, if he DOES have a c/r-fold range what hands would be best to do it with, I made some quick guesswork based on what hands I think I would bluff with here (or am I missing another point somewhere?)

3) How do we factor the equity we lose by allowing his flop bluffing range to see a turn card and the frequency which he bet/folds the same range OTT.

  -My instinct when I read the hand was that Sean SHOULD jam the river and that the villain SHOULD have jammed the turn.  Once the discussion started between dan and stu it seemed to stick out in my head that   villain should have (at least considered) 3betitng the flop, even though I would have initially instinctivley dismissed that for sure.

 -Gotta remember as well these discussions have become GTO based so we're ignoring all live "real poker" aspects here and just crunching numbers, frequency and ranges.

  -I actually think that Sean DOESN'T have a raise-fold range OTF (I actually doubt I would live as well tbh, although I'm sure people will think I would) which brings me to a point of...

5) how good you think these boards ARE to be c/r bluffing in spots like this, where we're called and called a 3bet. We have quite a thin value range and it hits the 3better pretty hard so if this ISNT a good board to be c/r bluffing, then is c/r the flop with THIS HAND actually a worse play than c/calling, and what other hands do you think we would chk/call? again a pretty thin range.

so, 5) Could this be a spot on this texture of board where we actally DONT have a c/call range. we just c/r of c/f? I can't actually thin of many made hands that would be great to c/c here.


This is basically the jumbled up thought processes I was having reading the posts. I havent used anything other than basic stove stuff as I, honestly, wouldn't know where to start.

[titaniumbean]

dan the lack of pie-related examples makes it hard to understand what you're saying

 

[tight4better]

Great discussion guys.

+1

However I was distracted by the presence of pie.