Don't know what to do?!

[sm00035]

about 30 left in the $11r action hour. Was playing relatively absurdly, had a lot of bb, then got a lot of bb with Q7 on turn with no pair, slim draw and was left with a lot fewer bb. Villan is relatively new to table, these are the hands we have played of note that he would of seen/been in.

PokerStars Hand #78614206724: Tournament #543061739, $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXI (800/1600) - 2012/04/10 0:43:14 WET [2012/04/09 19:43:14 ET]
Table '543061739 11' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: dannyjw (155986 in chips)
Seat 2: Korkmaz_mk64 (8736 in chips)
Seat 3: sam11788 (40791 in chips)
Seat 4: Eek-A-Donk (51232 in chips)
Seat 5: Dita73 (17492 in chips)
Seat 6: teruliro (70384 in chips)
Seat 7: goodbets1949 (59932 in chips)
Seat 8: niclas237 (64796 in chips)
dannyjw: posts the ante 320
Korkmaz_mk64: posts the ante 320
sam11788: posts the ante 320
Eek-A-Donk: posts the ante 320
Dita73: posts the ante 320
teruliro: posts the ante 320
goodbets1949: posts the ante 320
niclas237: posts the ante 320
Eek-A-Donk: posts small blind 800
Dita73: posts big blind 1600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to sam11788 [ ]
teruliro said, "wow nh"
teruliro: raises 1792 to 3392
goodbets1949: folds
dannyjw said, " good fold mate"
niclas237: folds
teruliro said, "fold TT"
dannyjw: folds
Korkmaz_mk64: folds
sam11788: calls 3392
teruliro said, "cant fold until the end"
Eek-A-Donk: calls 2592
Dita73: folds
*** FLOP *** [ ]
dannyjw said, "very good fold then"
teruliro said, "jeje"
Eek-A-Donk: checks
teruliro: checks
sam11788: checks
*** TURN *** [ ] []
teruliro said, ""
Eek-A-Donk: checks
teruliro: checks
sam11788: bets 5826
Eek-A-Donk: folds
teruliro: calls 5826
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
teruliro: checks
sam11788: bets 31253 and is all-in
teruliro: calls 31253
*** SHOW DOWN ***
sam11788: shows [ ] (two pair, Aces and Kings)
teruliro: shows [ As] (a pair of Aces)
sam11788 collected 88494 from pot


PokerStars Hand #78614485298: Tournament #543061739, $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXII (1000/2000) - 2012/04/10 0:50:31 WET [2012/04/09 19:50:31 ET]
Table '543061739 11' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: dannyjw (192539 in chips)
Seat 2: Korkmaz_mk64 (16952 in chips)
Seat 3: sam11788 (86654 in chips)
Seat 4: DerPascha17 (22392 in chips)
Seat 5: Dita73 (12932 in chips)
Seat 7: goodbets1949 (55172 in chips)
Seat 8: niclas237 (165472 in chips)
dannyjw: posts the ante 400
Korkmaz_mk64: posts the ante 400
sam11788: posts the ante 400
DerPascha17: posts the ante 400
Dita73: posts the ante 400
goodbets1949: posts the ante 400
niclas237: posts the ante 400
Korkmaz_mk64: posts small blind 1000
sam11788: posts big blind 2000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to sam11788 [ ]
DerPascha17: folds
Dita73: folds
goodbets1949: folds
niclas237: folds
dannyjw: raises 3000 to 5000
Korkmaz_mk64: folds
sam11788: raises 7635 to 12635
dannyjw: calls 7635
*** FLOP *** [ ]
sam11788: checks
dannyjw: bets 12000
sam11788: calls 12000
*** TURN *** [ ] []
sam11788: checks
dannyjw: checks
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
sam11788: bets 8375
dannyjw: raises 11625 to 20000
sam11788: calls 11625
*** SHOW DOWN ***
dannyjw: shows [ ] (a pair of Deuces)
sam11788: shows [ ] (two pair, Aces and Deuces)
sam11788 collected 93070 from pot


Then this is hand in question. I didn't even notice this guy that limped on the table. He had been there for about 3 orbits and hadn't moved a chip
PokerStars Hand #78614585709: Tournament #543061739, $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXII (1000/2000) - 2012/04/10 0:53:13 WET [2012/04/09 19:53:13 ET]
Table '543061739 11' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: dannyjw (147504 in chips)
Seat 2: Korkmaz_mk64 (15552 in chips)
Seat 3: sam11788 (134689 in chips)
Seat 4: DerPascha17 (21992 in chips)
Seat 5: Dita73 (12532 in chips)
Seat 6: Cyberdyne (42574 in chips)
Seat 7: goodbets1949 (54772 in chips)
Seat 8: niclas237 (165072 in chips)
Seat 9: FiskUggla (108032 in chips)
dannyjw: posts the ante 400
Korkmaz_mk64: posts the ante 400
sam11788: posts the ante 400
DerPascha17: posts the ante 400
Dita73: posts the ante 400
Cyberdyne: posts the ante 400
goodbets1949: posts the ante 400
niclas237: posts the ante 400
FiskUggla: posts the ante 400
sam11788: posts small blind 1000
DerPascha17: posts big blind 2000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to sam11788 [ ]
Dita73: calls 2000
Cyberdyne: folds
goodbets1949: folds
niclas237: folds
FiskUggla: folds
dannyjw: raises 4000 to 6000
Korkmaz_mk64: folds
sam11788:

[pleno1]

think its quite an easy fold mate, guy is described as nitty and we definitely dont want to get it in vs his 4bcalling range and we can choose better hands to 38, also probably going to receive an invitation to a decision from utg shortly aswell. Were not deep enough to play a multiway pot either.

[mondatoo]

Haha, I read the bit in red, read Pads post, and still missed the fact that utg limps.

I'd call, we are getting more than 20/1 to peel so interested in why you don't think we can peel Pads ? Agree with not 3b vs this villain.

Is hand 1 fairly std not to 3b ?

[pleno1]

guy 3xs we dnt have 20 1 mate.

[mondatoo]

I'm pretty exhausted but we have 130k+ stack he has us covered and it's 5k to call ?

[sm00035]

well if we call, i was assuming the utg is rejamming so now we are either putting in an extra 5k to fold to a iso by Danny or we are putting in 11k oop with a dry side pot

[SuuPRlim]

defo fold imo.

I'd prefer a min 3bet to ty iso ourselves vs the UTG limp-shover (or what appears v likely to be a limp-shove) hopefully forcing danny out with a decent hand, problem is we cant raise small enough to be able to re-raise if Danny calls, so this increases the liklihood of danny calling the utg jam very very likely which is going to get us into all sort of yuckiness

just fold for me

[Beaver808]

It feels like he's probably jamming any flop with either AA, KK possibly QQ, maybe even a spaz-tastic JJ (but I doubt it) - does this mean that if we call we're pretty much set-mining but even if we hit we will have to think about folding if an A, K or maybe Q appear on the flop? - nit mindset FTW!!!!

I have no problem folding two 9's here, no problem at all.

[mondatoo]

LOL, I knew I just shouldn't post at that time, 13 hours grind meant I could hardly even see straight nevermind read a HH.

I sure looked at limpers stack  

The min 3b gets through very rarely against Danny so I wouldn't do that.

I guess fold is best, this has to be top of our folding range right ?

Unless we think villain is capable of getting tricky any merit to call/call as his range is pretty polarized if he calls utgs jam with us behind ?

[Pinchop73]

I want to call here off a 67bb stack?

My thoughts.

I think this exact spot, 99s have too much equity to fold.

Villain is a very small ssmtt winner. His range for just 3x'ing this spot might a lot wider than I think a lot of people have given him credit for with such a large stack size (imo 77+, A5+s, ATo, KQs etc).

The short stack is going to shove his 6bigs, (assuming the bb folds...) Villain is now imo in a pretty tough spot, as whichever action he takes will make the job of assigning his range lots easier for us. I think villain can fold this spot some percentage of the time, leaving us to win a pot with decent chunk of dead money with 99s vs a 6big blind shove from a fish who's played like 8 games total.

If he raises I think it does then become a fold. (-3bb's)

The trickiest spot comes when he just flats. Considering we are oop, I think it's then a sigh fold call.

We'll be investing another 3bb's to try win 20bb's.

(6132/3600+2000+12132+12132+6000+6132) = 6132/41996 = 0.146%

Even assigning him only AA we have 19.66% equity. But the majority of the time we should take AKo/JJ+ out of his range as he'd 4ball these.

I realise we are going to be c/f'ing some flops, where we did not have the correct implied odds in the first place, but I think we're just deep enough, and have a sizeable skill edge post flop to warrant call/c'ing pre vs this particular villain oop. Investing 6bigs to attempt stacking this guy for a 140 bb pot with just 30 left outweights folding imo.

And I mean, it's the action hour?!

EDIT: Hmmm, just thinking to myself, the only cards we stack are underpairs. Maybe not worth calling tbf.