Spew the bubble

[Pinchop73]

What you saying?

Big$11, currently 1285 remain, 1270 is the bubble.

Villain has not long been at the table. OPR'd as a breakeven ssmtt'er.

PokerStars Hand #78816816869: Tournament #568010495, $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XVII (400/800) - 2012/04/13 22:10:40 WET [2012/04/13 17:10:40 ET]
Table '568010495 59' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: lucian2oo5 (14214 in chips)
Seat 2: gagey1990 (20554 in chips)
Seat 3: inmol (117985 in chips)
Seat 4: dolceguevara (9330 in chips)
Seat 5: Ultraballs18 (32598 in chips)
Seat 6: bombenbert78 (5824 in chips)
Seat 7: nmi128 (13634 in chips)
Seat 8: DingDong1860 (8749 in chips)
Seat 9: Nagoya99 (5216 in chips)
lucian2oo5: posts the ante 100
gagey1990: posts the ante 100
inmol: posts the ante 100
dolceguevara: posts the ante 100
Ultraballs18: posts the ante 100
bombenbert78: posts the ante 100
nmi128: posts the ante 100
DingDong1860: posts the ante 100
Nagoya99: posts the ante 100
inmol: posts small blind 400
dolceguevara: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ultraballs18 [ ]
Ultraballs18: raises 800 to 1600
bombenbert78: folds
nmi128: folds
DingDong1860: folds
Nagoya99: folds
lucian2oo5: folds
gagey1990: folds
inmol: calls 1200
dolceguevara has timed out
dolceguevara: folds
*** FLOP *** [ ]
dolceguevara is sitting out
dolceguevara has returned
inmol: bets 1600
Ultraballs18: calls 1600
*** TURN *** [ ] []
inmol: bets 3200
Ultraballs18: calls 3200
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
inmol: bets 4000
Ultraballs18: raises 22098 to 26098 and is all-in
inmol: calls 22098
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Ultraballs18: shows [ ] (a pair of Kings)
inmol: shows [ ] (two pair, Kings and Jacks)
inmol collected 66696 from pot
Ultraballs18 finished the tournament in 1285th place

Line ok for the bubble?

Or just too spewy?

[MC]

You have to just call river here, I think bubble is pretty irrelevant fwiw.

[Pinchop73]

I feel there's a good chance the bubble affects his calling range, it does to 85% of other players at this level? I realise it's not his tournie life.

But he has to consider the fact that I'm putting mine on the line, which happens light on the bubble what %?

I'm never calling the river bud. I've called down to put villain in this specific spot. With the strength of his line top pair is rarely good. The fact I've hit top pair doesn't skew my river action, apart from I might check behind if checked to.

[pleno1]

wow. This is really butchered mate sorry. Pre and the flop are both fine so ironically 50pc of the hand is perfect lol

turn is a clear fold for lots of obvuius reasons including lack on implied odds, potential reverse implied odds and v.little showdown.

River is definitely closer to a fold than a jam, but its about as close to a jam as i am to karl mahrenholzes chin. Just call and make a note about his leading tendancies.

[silverslick]

Fold pre IMO.

[SuuPRlim]

I'm never calling the river bud. I've called down to put villain in this specific spot. With the strength of his line top pair is rarely good. The fact I've hit top pair doesn't skew my river action, apart from I might check behind if checked to.

So what you're saying is. You've put him on a strong hand so you're going to float twice and jam the river.

WHY?

When I put my opponent on a strong hand and my hand isn't itself strong I fold and no1 has yet to come up with a reason why I should do anything different.

DEFO fold the turn btw, I think he can have spades a lot

[Pinchop73]

If I was playing this hand 'correctly' then I'd just fold pre.

But as it was pretty much directly on the bubble, and my stats to the majority of the players on the table were like 10/8 over 60ish hands, I decided to steal.

I've noticed more and more how regs frequently open UTG, as it gets so many folds from the perceived strong range.

The rest of the play in the hand didn't really have much to do with my holdings, but more to do with my stack size, added to the fact that I felt he'd only b/c the top of his range otr. I felt he'd b/f the rest of his range, ie straight/set/2pr's/overpair etc.

Guess trying to get him to fold this range might be a bit fps.

I thought because of the bubble dynamic it would cause enough tightening of his b/c range to make the shove +ev.

I mean I know this is very results orientated, but if he doesn't hit the K, how often do you think he calls an overbet shove?

[Pinchop73]

Just read this all back. Don't want to seem like a tit, guess I come across a little dismissive of peoples thoughts.

I guess the bubble doesn't affect a reg's thought process anywhere near as much as I think it does. So that's the first major flaw in my thought process. Sigh

[SuuPRlim]

trying to abuse the bubble isn't flawwed thinking, the bubble is very relevant the reason for this is that at no point before the final will difference in money be as important as the bubble in a tourney HOWEVER this doesnt take away from the fact that you've said you put him on a strong hand and you made the plan to take him of it, because it's the bubble.

Think about how often this plan needs to work to show a profit, quite a bit, now think about how you think he has a strong hand...

See where I'm coming from? Why do we do this, on the bubble again where we're putting out equity in big jeopardy for a play that seems like mostly ego to me, sorry to say.

We don't have to win every pot.