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Poker Hand Analysis
JJ- Deep in big 11, prob 50p
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Topic: JJ- Deep in big 11, prob 50p (Read 2612 times)
rfgqqabc
Hero Member
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Posts: 5371
JJ- Deep in big 11, prob 50p
«
on:
July 04, 2012, 12:23:13 AM »
No Limit Holdem Tournament
PokerStars
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by
http://weaktight.com/
$10+$1
Stacks:
UTG Avely 220k 55bb
UTG+1 elastiekje 69k 17bb
MP1 Wuestmann 216k 54bb
MP2 TakeRisks 153k 38bb
MP3 Murray82 49k 12bb
CO Mr.Bob-su 242k 61bb
BTN Con-Artistt 34k 8bb
SB dani1111116 173k 43bb
BB cocophil 109k 27bb
Blinds: 2k/4k Ante 500
Pre-Flop: (11k, 9 players) TakeRisks is MP2
1 fold, elastiekje calls 4k, 1 fold, TakeRisks raises to 9k, 3 folds, dani1111116 raises to 48k, 1 fold, elastiekje folds, TakeRisks goes all-in 152k, dani1111116 calls 104k
Hes 31/20 over 28 hands with 10% 3bet, obv stats mean nothing. Peeled a raise with 83o and called all 3, admittedly tiny bets on 8cK4c6cx, he had 3 of clubs.
175 left, both about 50th completely standard?
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[21:05:17] Andrew W: you wasted a non spelling mistakepost?
[21:11:08] Patrick Leonard: oll
TL900
Hero Member
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Posts: 2418
Re: JJ- Deep in big 11, prob 50p
«
Reply #1 on:
July 04, 2012, 04:20:09 AM »
iso a bit bigger pre, and I dont think im folding vs a spaz
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@MtSpewmore
Quote from: jgcblack
I wouldn't normally try so hard, but didn't have another opportunity I could wait for. I wasn't ready to surrender what I WANTED SO MUCH, that easily, I couldn't guarantee a call with me staying stoic and relying on a flinch "top pair" calling reflex.
rfgqqabc
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Re: JJ- Deep in big 11, prob 50p
«
Reply #2 on:
July 04, 2012, 08:13:07 AM »
Quote from: TL900 on July 04, 2012, 04:20:09 AM
iso a bit bigger pre, and I dont think im folding vs a spaz
Opened so small because utg has lost 60k in an orbit, and he opened last round and I 3bet, so wanted to give him any reason to shove. That fair?
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[21:05:17] Andrew W: you wasted a non spelling mistakepost?
[21:11:08] Patrick Leonard: oll
SubZERO
Full Member
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Posts: 205
FINISH HIM!!!!! Babality
Re: JJ- Deep in big 11, prob 50p
«
Reply #3 on:
July 04, 2012, 10:53:32 AM »
def getting it in here
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Ducky7
Probation
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Posts: 8
Re: JJ- Deep in big 11, prob 50p
«
Reply #4 on:
July 07, 2012, 01:29:11 AM »
Getting it in basically all the time here
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PizzicatoXev
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Posts: 261
Re: JJ- Deep in big 11, prob 50p
«
Reply #5 on:
July 08, 2012, 10:09:13 AM »
Quote from: Ducky7 on July 07, 2012, 01:29:11 AM
Getting it in basically all the time here
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the rage
Sr. Member
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Posts: 380
Re: JJ- Deep in big 11, prob 50p
«
Reply #6 on:
July 08, 2012, 11:57:21 AM »
It's by no means an easy decision either way, in my opinion.
You've made a small raise from middle position and then you are faced with a very large three bet from the small blind.
How frequently are people three betting light in this scenario? I would say, probably not very often.
Villian might have interpreted your raise as you trying to isolate the limper cheaply but he could just as easily be veiwing your raise as indicating a very strong hand.
I dont beleive your jacks are in particularly great shape against villian's calling range and i dont think he's folding often enough (if at all) to make jamming 36bb a wise move.
So, it's FOLD and wait for better spots for me.
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the rage
Sr. Member
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Posts: 380
Re: JJ- Deep in big 11, prob 50p
«
Reply #7 on:
July 08, 2012, 12:01:45 PM »
Having said all that, i suppose the clue is in the title, so villian probably snap calls with ace five suited and rivers the flush.
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rfgqqabc
Hero Member
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Posts: 5371
Re: JJ- Deep in big 11, prob 50p
«
Reply #8 on:
July 08, 2012, 01:55:08 PM »
He had dem Aces and we didn't get there despite the 89T flop.
This is surprisingly close, and I'm happy taking a flip vs his range, but on the counter side it was really soft and i had chipped up nicely.
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[21:05:17] Andrew W: you wasted a non spelling mistakepost?
[21:11:08] Patrick Leonard: oll
Junior Senior
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Posts: 4628
Re: JJ- Deep in big 11, prob 50p
«
Reply #9 on:
July 08, 2012, 11:50:27 PM »
Sounds like you talked yourself intothe call based on the slight history and game flow. On the face of it and readin hand history alone. I fold.
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muckthenuts
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Posts: 1672
Re: JJ- Deep in big 11, prob 50p
«
Reply #10 on:
July 08, 2012, 11:59:09 PM »
Deffo have to raise bigger pre. As played i can't find good enough reasons to fold here. 28 hands is small but not meaningless and he's been pretty spazzy in that time. Seems like a standard cooler to me.
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DMorgan
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Re: JJ- Deep in big 11, prob 50p
«
Reply #11 on:
July 09, 2012, 08:21:44 AM »
Can't fold once his range starts getting wider than TT+/AQs
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Quote from: Karabiner on May 24, 2014, 12:47:13 PM
Is Dan awake yet?
rfgqqabc
Hero Member
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Posts: 5371
Re: JJ- Deep in big 11, prob 50p
«
Reply #12 on:
July 09, 2012, 07:21:37 PM »
Normally i think cram the lot 100% correct. But, there is no real correlation between seeing him peel with 83o to him 3bing TT- and getting it in. The problem i see is, this is a large flip, in a tourney with XXXX runners, and all the prizepool at the top. The field is joke soft, i have a big edge, and am very comfortable pushing/bullying in the future. When i weighted his range to half AA/KK combos and QQ-99 with AKs,AKo and AQs, we only have about 53% equity, which is quite low compared to my initial thoughts vs his range.
I guess ultimately it comes down to variance, and if I'd seen 99 here I'm not sure I'd have bothered posting. So chalk it up to cooler.
Pre is definitely stylistic imo, i want to look as weak as possible, and give people room to spaz, I have expected utg to jam, having just 3bet his last open the orbit before, and with his stack size decreasing so rapidly.
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[21:05:17] Andrew W: you wasted a non spelling mistakepost?
[21:11:08] Patrick Leonard: oll
Pugwashed
Full Member
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Posts: 285
Re: JJ- Deep in big 11, prob 50p
«
Reply #13 on:
July 10, 2012, 05:45:29 AM »
Quote from: TL900 on July 04, 2012, 04:20:09 AM
iso a bit bigger pre, and I dont think im folding vs a spaz
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