Is this terrible? (1)

[Kilgore_Trout]

Played a few live tournaments recently and have played badly or not run well. Thought I'd get opinions on now bad (probably) I played a couple of hands. So here goes.

£25 buy in evening tournament at DTD. 10,000 starting chips.

I was up to about 15,000 but have drifted back down to 10,000 ish after the break. Blinds are now 300, 600.

I'm in BB. CO (villain) has plently more chips than me. He's been opening with a raise a lot since the break, pretty much every time its folded round to him in late position.

So,...its folded round to the villain in CO who makes it 1,800 to go. Its folded to me in BB. I have K4off.

I shove, thinking like 80-90% of the time he must fold. Plus some of the time he calls with queen high. And some of the time he calls and he has ace - X so its only like 60-40 in his favour.

So with all the fold equity it looks ok. Maybe? Or not?

[discomonkey]

the idea is a good one, i dont really like doing it with k4o though, you are right abut the "if im called with ax im only 60-40" (65-35 actuallY) but you could pick better hand and spots to do it with that this i think, 17bb is plenty, you are not really rushed into making a move immediatley.

[JK]

Like Discomonkey says, 17bbs is more than plenty. Plus £25 comps at DTD people are much more likely to snap your neck off with KTo. Obviously they shouldnt be calling that light, but they will as they dont all understand ranges and just think KING TEN IS A GOOD HAND.

Your thought process is actually getting towards right though. However you need to understand what hands you should be shoving and what you shouldnt. These charts can be found online fairly easily. Its also just playing round with certain calling ranges and what hand is profitable vs that.

[Young_gun]

Too much for me buddy here, if you had like 10-15 bb and possibly altho i would probably choose a better range then k4, 9/10, KQ, A10 etc, possibly a bit wider but something which plays ok when called, k4 is pretty nasty if he hero calls kx here ur crushed, ax 35/65 not really something you want and i doubt they ever call qx

[muckthenuts]

the idea is a good one, i dont really like doing it with k4o though, you are right abut the "if im called with ax im only 60-40" (65-35 actuallY) but you could pick better hand and spots to do it with that this i think, 17bb is plenty, you are not really rushed into making a move immediatley.

+1

[stato_1]

Where have you got your number ""80-90%" from? If he's calling with Qhigh and better thats like 17% of hands. Meaning to be folding 90% of the time, he'd have to be opening 170% of starting hands.

[cambridgealex]

If he's folding 80/90% then shoving any two cards is profitable

[SubZERO]

I dont mind this too much, players in these tourneys will fold a lot of hands I think. I'd like to know what stack villain is playing tbh

But yeah if you think he calls with Q high, thats a lot of hands that call you making it a fold

[Kilgore_Trout]

80/90% is just my guess, intuition, dumb judgement, whatever you want to call it. I can't put an accurate figure on the actual % he would fold.

I just meant he opens with pretty much any two cards from late position so he must be folding a v.high % of the time to my shove.

Villain had a lot more chips than me - around double.

[Kilgore_Trout]

Where have you got your number ""80-90%" from? If he's calling with Qhigh and better thats like 17% of hands. Meaning to be folding 90% of the time, he'd have to be opening 170% of starting hands.

Have to admit I genuinely don't understand this. If he's calling 17% that just means he's folding 83% to me and my guess on %ages is about right.

[cambridgealex]

Where have you got your number ""80-90%" from? If he's calling with Qhigh and better thats like 17% of hands. Meaning to be folding 90% of the time, he'd have to be opening 170% of starting hands.

Have to admit I genuinely don't understand this. If he's calling 17% that just means he's folding 83% to me and my guess on %ages is about right.

That implies his opening any two cards though.

He's probably only opening at best 50%, and of those hands, if he's calling with say 55+,A8s+,KTs+,QTs+,A9o+,KTo+,QJo (you seemed to infer he'd call pretty wide) then that's 16% of the total hands dealt therefore about 1/3 of the hands he's opening (16/50 ~= 1/3)

So he's folding 66% and calling 34%. K4o has 31% equity when called by those hands.

So 66% you win 1800+300+600+(50*9) (assuming antes 50) = +3150
Of the 34% you get called 10% you double up, 10000+300+(50*9) = +10750
and 24% you bust = -10000

So the EV of the shove is (0.66*3150)+(0.10*10750)+(0.24*-10000)

=+754

So it's +EV by just over 1 bb.

This is with our very leniant assumption that he's opening 50% of hands which includes hands such as J4s, Q2s, K5o, J7o which most people don't open from the cutoff.

So to conclude, it's very slightly +EV if you think he's opening REALLY wide, but in reality he probably isn't and it's probably a slightly losing play which is really unnecessary in this sort of comp.