Advice requested: how to get a good spin from online bookies.

[Honeybadger]

I have only been getting into this sports betting stuff over the last year, so I would really appreciate advice from all you shrewdies. Since pretty much all my accounts have now been either closed down or heavily restricted, I am intending to open a new raft of bookies accounts this week (under a friend's name) and want to make sure I do everything I can to get as good a spin as possible before I start getting shut off. I likely made a ton of rookie errors when I first opened accounts in my own name and I am keen to do things as well as I can this time. Any advice will be highly appreciated, and I also have some specific questions:

1. What is the maximum regular bet size that will likely stay under the radar for a decent amount of time? For example, if I want to be betting £100 per point is that far too much to stop them examining my accounts? Would I have to split it between two sites, or three sites, or more? I am mainly going to be betting on the bookies early prices, and I realise this will make a difference to the amount I can realistically bet before I start to get shut off since the market is small on the early prices and the bookies are paranoid. Can anyone give me a rough figure that I need to keep my bets under that will allow me to get as good a spin as possible?

2. Do online bookies track IP addresses? If so, they will see that my new accounts are coming from the same place. I am pretty sure I know how to change my IP address using my router... is this necessary? Also, someone told me that if you set up accounts using 3G it is much more difficult for them to track you since they use the IP address at which the account was set up in the first instance when labelling new accounts (and 3G uses dynamic IP addresses or something like that). Can anyone confirm is this is true or just BS?

3. Am I automatically going to get cut off if I always just take the best price on every bet?

4. Are there any good proven ways of creating 'cover' for myself? Is it sometimes worth deliberately not going to the firm with the best price, say once every four bets? If your bet was a good one at the best price firm then it would likely be a break even bet if you take the next lowest price, right? And if you made a chunk of break even bets then this might provide cover? If this is ridiculous thinking then please tell me. Any other ways of providing cover? Obviously if I knew a mug punter who loved betting big I could offer to place all his bets through my accounts and this would provide cover for the good bets. But I don't know many mug punters.

5. I am mainly going to be attacking the bookies early prices. Is this a pursuit that means it is inevitable that accounts will be closed since the market is so small and it is so obvious what I am doing? Or is it sustainable provided I never bet more than £x on any one site? Or can it be made to work if I create enough cover with other bets etc?

6. Any tips on how to start off my betting on each account? Should I start off really small, perhaps making a few bad bets deliberately? Or does it not matter? How do the bookies go about flagging up undesirable accounts, and is there any way of fooling them in the medium-term?

7. This morning I made a bet by clicking through straight from oddschecker. I have never done this before since I assumed this might set off a warning to the firm (this customer is price sensitive etc) but thought that since all my accounts were basically screwed and I was going to open new accounts this week then it didn't matter - so I tried it. However, it was obviously a very convenient way of placing a bet. So my question is: when I set up my new accounts should I continue to avoid clicking through from oddschecker, or does it not matter in the slightest?

8. Any other advice on this issue please. Everything will be appreciated.

I realise this post is going to come across as incredibly naive and silly. But I want to learn from guys with loads more experience than myself. It appears from my last year of sports betting that it is not very hard to find good bets, but clearly the problem is getting your bets layed. Obviously you'll all have had the same issues and I'm sure some of you have worked out little tricks to help with it. Any advice or reality checks will be highly appreciated.

[rfgqqabc]

I have only been getting into this sports betting stuff over the last year, so I would really appreciate advice from all you shrewdies. Since pretty much all my accounts have now been either closed down or heavily restricted, I am intending to open a new raft of bookies accounts this week (under a friend's name) and want to make sure I do everything I can to get as good a spin as possible before I start getting shut off. I likely made a ton of rookie errors when I first opened accounts in my own name and I am keen to do things as well as I can this time. Any advice will be highly appreciated, and I also have some specific questions:

1. What is the maximum regular bet size that will likely stay under the radar for a decent amount of time? For example, if I want to be betting £100 per point is that far too much to stop them examining my accounts? Would I have to split it between two sites, or three sites, or more? I am mainly going to be betting on the bookies early prices, and I realise this will make a difference to the amount I can realistically bet before I start to get shut off since the market is small on the early prices and the bookies are paranoid. Can anyone give me a rough figure that I need to keep my bets under that will allow me to get as good a spin as possible?
Depends on if you win. Numbers for unknown accounts have been as low as £5k winnings before your account is closed. Purely depends on their traders opinion when you get flagged. If your 100x up your average stake on a combination of obscure F1/cricket bets then your account is GG. If you've smashed £3k on Man U saturday morning it won't matter.

2. Do online bookies track IP addresses? If so, they will see that my new accounts are coming from the same place. I am pretty sure I know how to change my IP address using my router... is this necessary? Also, someone told me that if you set up accounts using 3G it is much more difficult for them to track you since they use the IP address at which the account was set up in the first instance when labelling new accounts (and 3G uses dynamic IP addresses or something like that). Can anyone confirm is this is true or just BS?
I would state it is all but confirmed. Everyone I know that has reason to be concerned about this is though.

3. Am I automatically going to get cut off if I always just take the best price on every bet?
Probably not, just the overall outcome. If you go to Corals who are 8/1 Lads are 19/2. You take Corals, and its 4/1 at the off. Best price doesnt matter if you have that on your track record!

4. Are there any good proven ways of creating 'cover' for myself? Is it sometimes worth deliberately not going to the firm with the best price, say once every four bets? If your bet was a good one at the best price firm then it would likely be a break even bet if you take the next lowest price, right? And if you made a chunk of break even bets then this might provide cover? If this is ridiculous thinking then please tell me. Any other ways of providing cover? Obviously if I knew a mug punter who loved betting big I could offer to place all his bets through my accounts and this would provide good cover for the good bets. But I don't know many mug punters.
Problem with the cover idea is that it is extremely hard to find b/e shit etc. Just have the odd daft accumulator  or £50 splash on casino games. AFAIK it won't matter in a few months anwyay

5. I am mainly going to be attacking the bookies early prices. Is this a pursuit that means it is inevitable that accounts will be closed since the market is so small and it is so obvious what I am doing? Or is it sustainable provided I never bet more than £x on any one site? Or can it be made to work if I create enough cover with other bets etc?
Good luck.

6. This morning I made a bet by clicking through straight from oddschecker. I have never done this before since I assumed this might set off a warning to the firm (this customer is price sensitive etc) but thought that since all my accounts were basically screwed and I was going to open new accounts this week then it didn't matter - so I tried it. However, it was obviously a very convenient way of placing a bet. So my question is: when I set up my new accounts should I continue to avoid clicking through from oddschecker, or does it not matter in the slightest?
I think it won't matter, i never used to do the same but rarely do now. I imagine bookies still got chunks of fish action through it so wouldn't matter too much. When your account starts winning its gg anyway.

7. Any other advice on this issue please. Everything will be appreciated.
Good luck with all the frustrations of bookmakers. Live bet running completely necessary for anyone who wants to make a career of this, unless betfair is an option for them.

I realise this post is going to come across as incredibly naive and silly. But I want to learn from guys with loads more experience than myself. It appears from my last year of sports betting that it is not very hard to find good bets, but clearly the problem is getting your bets layed. Obviously you'll all have had the same issues and I'm sure some of you have worked out little tricks to help with it. Any advice or reality checks really appreciated.

\

[rfgqqabc]

You'll quickly come to realise certain bookies will lay bets and others won't. I'll try a quick group.

Won't: Stan James/Sky Bet/Tote/B365/ Bet Victor/ PP

Will: Lads/ Corals/ Fred/ Hills

This varies somewhat from punter to punter and how accounts run. Stan/Sky are notoriously poor though.

[AndrewT]

Play some slots in their casino - nothing says ice-cream like slots.

[Nico29]

I have only been getting into this sports betting stuff over the last year, so I would really appreciate advice from all you shrewdies. Since pretty much all my accounts have now been either closed down or heavily restricted, I am intending to open a new raft of bookies accounts this week (under a friend's name) and want to make sure I do everything I can to get as good a spin as possible before I start getting shut off. I likely made a ton of rookie errors when I first opened accounts in my own name and I am keen to do things as well as I can this time. Any advice will be highly appreciated, and I also have some specific questions:

1. What is the maximum regular bet size that will likely stay under the radar for a decent amount of time? For example, if I want to be betting £100 per point is that far too much to stop them examining my accounts? Would I have to split it between two sites, or three sites, or more? I am mainly going to be betting on the bookies early prices, and I realise this will make a difference to the amount I can realistically bet before I start to get shut off since the market is small on the early prices and the bookies are paranoid. Can anyone give me a rough figure that I need to keep my bets under that will allow me to get as good a spin as possible?

2. Do online bookies track IP addresses? If so, they will see that my new accounts are coming from the same place. I am pretty sure I know how to change my IP address using my router... is this necessary? Also, someone told me that if you set up accounts using 3G it is much more difficult for them to track you since they use the IP address at which the account was set up in the first instance when labelling new accounts (and 3G uses dynamic IP addresses or something like that). Can anyone confirm is this is true or just BS?

3. Am I automatically going to get cut off if I always just take the best price on every bet?

4. Are there any good proven ways of creating 'cover' for myself? Is it sometimes worth deliberately not going to the firm with the best price, say once every four bets? If your bet was a good one at the best price firm then it would likely be a break even bet if you take the next lowest price, right? And if you made a chunk of break even bets then this might provide cover? If this is ridiculous thinking then please tell me. Any other ways of providing cover? Obviously if I knew a mug punter who loved betting big I could offer to place all his bets through my accounts and this would provide cover for the good bets. But I don't know many mug punters.

5. I am mainly going to be attacking the bookies early prices. Is this a pursuit that means it is inevitable that accounts will be closed since the market is so small and it is so obvious what I am doing? Or is it sustainable provided I never bet more than £x on any one site? Or can it be made to work if I create enough cover with other bets etc?

6. Any tips on how to start off my betting on each account? Should I start off really small, perhaps making a few bad bets deliberately? Or does it not matter? How do the bookies go about flagging up undesirable accounts, and is there any way of fooling them in the medium-term?

7. This morning I made a bet by clicking through straight from oddschecker. I have never done this before since I assumed this might set off a warning to the firm (this customer is price sensitive etc) but thought that since all my accounts were basically screwed and I was going to open new accounts this week then it didn't matter - so I tried it. However, it was obviously a very convenient way of placing a bet. So my question is: when I set up my new accounts should I continue to avoid clicking through from oddschecker, or does it not matter in the slightest?

8. Any other advice on this issue please. Everything will be appreciated.

I realise this post is going to come across as incredibly naive and silly. But I want to learn from guys with loads more experience than myself. It appears from my last year of sports betting that it is not very hard to find good bets, but clearly the problem is getting your bets layed. Obviously you'll all have had the same issues and I'm sure some of you have worked out little tricks to help with it. Any advice or reality checks will be highly appreciated.

Am sure bigger and better punters will and can help u with this but ill give it a go anyway.


1-Not something I am one hundred percent sure on but trying to keep stake sizes regular is a good method as swings will set off alarm bells. For example betting £100 on an average poss mug footy bet, yet then a grand on something shrewd would not look good, but guess that's pretty obv. When I worked in the industry anything up to a pony was generally fine on most markets as a rule, over this amount would mean you might get looked at more closely, perhaps more quickly, altho tbh expect the account to be monitored closely anyway. Not completely sure on stake sizes, i've had accounts busted from £10 bets over the years, yet kept ones that had regular £100+ punts-all depends on the bookie.

2-Yes they do track this and tbh I have no idea how to get round this as i'm pretty non techy, but again assume they know who's ip add it is, so if youve used it for anything shrewd b4, do yr best to use a fresh add, add as much confusion as poss.

3-Probably, altho depends on the bookie. Going through an oddschecker link will most likely leave a footpint which probs aint great, but i know i for one can never be bothered to ck price and then go via a new browser, probs shld tho. Bobby1 put up a great post on tips for tikay, as did i believe action man about this sorta thing. Prrobs best to take a loss on price on occassion for balance.I do this all the time, absolutely kills but worth it in long term as each account is worth £££.

4-Kinda similar to 3, imo yes mix it up.  Also if you know a mug or 2 who wants to lump on embrace his bets. I knew a guy who kept his account fresh for years with this method, was pretty com tho-mug horse, shrewd golf bet, mug first goalscorer, shrewd reality bet, mug dog bet, etc etc...

Have the odd mug bet yourself even. Take some short term -ev for long term account reasons, you can probs even lay off on betfair. I used to do this a lot with odds on shots on the horses. Barely lost much on betfair after comish, was just time consuming a bit.

5-They will assume you are an arber and if you keep taking the top early prices there is every chance you'll get restricted pretty quickly. Not a great shelf life for an account like this imo, altho i am sure there are ways around it, not sure of too many myself, probs related to your balance of account i guess. Again something id be guessing at a little.

6-I def think it does matter as it will leave a mark with many firms. I always try not to bet this way, but in real time I get lazy. Bookies don't mind you going through oddschecker, but along with other variables it could lead to problems. Ive actually noticed a couple of very worrying recent developments in my clicks thru oddschecker. It could be sheer coincidence but on at least 5 times in the last month the price has changed b4 ive bet the selection, its like im warning them the price is wrong by clicking thru oddscheker on the bet. It's just weird as it's only thru 2 bookies and this has rarely happened to me in many years of betting.

7-You are def right in asking these questions, there are even more things you should be considering yet I am certain others are better to advise you on them than me. It's impressive that you are thinking so far ahead when entering into such a venture, most will just dive straight in and then scream foul when all their accounts are closed quicker than bolt.

Gl, mainly replied to this due to having enjoyed your fantastic posts on variance etc.. of late in 'that' thread.

Hope this has helped a little, tho those like redarmi, badbeat, bobby1 are probs the nut ppl to ask on these things.

[Nico29]

Yeah this is a really good post, hope he doesn't mind me linking it here.

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=56581.msg1646914#msg1646914


As is this:

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=56581.msg1645636#msg1645636

[redarmi]

It really depends on what you are betting on Stu and what you are trying to acheive.  If you are betting warm horses and bets that are arbs with Betfair then it doesn't really matter what you bet you won't last long and no matter what with some firms you are going to struggle to get on long term if you are a genuine winner.  If you have a good  strategy for a major sport then you are probably better off using Betfair, Pinnacle and some of the Asian/US books for most of your bets anyway as they will not restrict you in the same way and will often be best price.

In terms of your specific points:

1. Sorry but this depends.  If you are betting premiership football with Pinnacle then you will get 1k+ regularly and they will never blink.  If you are betting darts 180's then 50 quid might be too much.  Anything in 3 figures is going to stand out at a firm like Boyles, Stan James etc but you will get a longer run with a Ladbrokes etc and can probably get away with more with them.  I think splitting stakes is sensible and use your accounts sparingly. 

2. Yes they do but I think this isn't a major issue unless you are using accounts in others names.  I use a vpn a lot and they can be useful for this purpose.  Just mix it up a bit.

3.  Firms know when they are best price.  That isn't neccesarily a problem.  I work for a firm in the Caribbean and generally if I am best price it is because I want to take a bet but we are slightly different and don't restrict punters as such but most traders are emotional beings by nature and whilst they might not mind at the time if you wina lot of money most places will restrict you eventually.

4. I know Trigg is a fan of this approach but I just don't know if the extra run you are likely to get is worth it in terms of EV given up.  As someone that has had accounts restricted for a bet on a Sunday afternoon Premier League game (it was my first bet with the firm) I just am not sure that just maths would have added up.

5. Are we talking horse racing?  It is literally the worst possible thing you can be betting for maintaining accounts.  I have drastically reduced my horseracing bets from the point where it was 90% of my turnover to a case now where it is less that 15% just because the getting on element is so hard.  If you are a winner betting early priced horses you will struggle to get more than pony's on in the long run although living in Manchester shops might be an option for a bit longer but even that comes to an end quicker than it used to.

6. Meh.  At some point you have to show your hand and when you do it isn't going to matter if the first ten bets you had were a score each way mug bet it you are now having 200 quid on a 16-1 shot that goes off at 8-1.  Only one bet will matter in that sequence.  There are undoubtedly smart guys out there that bet against the grain and make a profit on their own but generally as a trader I could sniff out a winning punter in one or two bets.  Some firms will give them a bit longer than that but it is more a question of what you are betting and what price you take versus what it closes than anything else including whether it wins or not.

7. Some affiliates attract sharper punters than others and that might be a decision long term on whether to restrict a punter but it isn't a big deal because firms can shut affiliates as easily as they can shut punters so if they don't want them they wouldn't be doing business with them in the first case.  Oddschecker isn't particularly a problem on that front anyway.

8.  Give me an idea of what you are betting on and we might be able to give more specific advice

[The Camel]

You'll quickly come to realise certain bookies will lay bets and others won't. I'll try a quick group.

Won't: Stan James/Sky Bet/Tote/B365/ Bet Victor/ PP

Will: Lads/ Corals/ Fred/ Hills

This varies somewhat from punter to punter and how accounts run. Stan/Sky are notoriously poor though.

This list is so LOL.

Betfred and Tote are the same thing and you reckon you get a good run from one, but not the other?!

Bet365 and Paddy are decent as long as you don't take the piss.

Hills and Coral are ok unless you want to back winners.

Ladbrokes are getting worse by the day.

[rfgqqabc]

You'll quickly come to realise certain bookies will lay bets and others won't. I'll try a quick group.

Won't: Stan James/Sky Bet/Tote/B365/ Bet Victor/ PP

Will: Lads/ Corals/ Fred/ Hills

This varies somewhat from punter to punter and how accounts run. Stan/Sky are notoriously poor though.

This list is so LOL.

Betfred and Tote are the same thing and you reckon you get a good run from one, but not the other?!

Bet365 and Paddy are decent as long as you don't take the piss.

Hills and Coral are ok unless you want to back winners.

Ladbrokes are getting worse by the day.

I've not bet online with fred/tote much since the merger. 365 are good with me but hear poor reviews from tennis/cricket punters (Bet£3.65). Guess it varies more than i thought.

Stan/Sky agreed upon? Victor? Boyles?

[redarmi]

Ladbrokes are easily the best firm to get on with and I haven't been able to get on with them outside of shops for years now but I agree with Keith that they are getting worse even on that front.  Agree totally on Fred who is the biggest joke going. VC, Boyles and Sky would be the others on my list of worst offenders.  I have always found 365 pretty bad too but know others find them pretty good which just goes to show that experiences can and do differ.  I have never been limited by Bluesq who I think Keith finds awful.  90%+ of my business these days goes to Betfair (although their fixed odds have laughably restricted the account I use most now), Pinnacle and Asians because I would rather spend my time getting good at punting and pricing events than spending the time and energy getting on.

[Honeybadger]

Thanks to everyone who has taken the time to post great advice in this thread, and also to the people who have PM'd me. I really appreciate you guys making an effort to help me as I try to learn how this all works. There has been plenty for me to think about already, and I will likely come back into this thread and ask for more clarification on certain issues. And maybe some other shrewd sports bettors will give further advice for me ITT too.

I am very green at all this, but I want to learn as quickly/effectively as possible.

Any recommendations for reading material?

[redarmi]

For football - Kevin Pulleins racing post book is very good.
For racing - it is all a bit dated now but Nick Mordins books are all very good but the US literature leads the way.  Look for authors like Andy Beyer, Steve Davidowitz, Barry Meadows etc but be prepared to do your own work to apply to UK racing.
For US sports - King Yaos book Weighing the odds in sports betting is excellent and he is, unlike a lot of writers, a very big winner.  Stanford Wongs book Sharp Sports betting is also pretty good.

Honestly though some of the very best things you will learn would be by reading here on Blonde.  Without blowing my own trumpet I had a diary for a while called, I think, Diary of a professional punter, where we talked some fairly good strategy for a while.  Keith also once did a thread along the lines of a weekend as a professional punter which is worth a read as is anything written by Bobby1 and Bad Beat in the Tips for Tikay thread or elsewhere.  Horneris doesn't post much now mores the shame as he is an excellent judge as is Dubai.  Dubai is particularly worth listening to on the Essex darts scene ;-).  Am sure I have missed a bunch of other great posters but they spring to mind initially.

[Honeybadger]

Hey Redarmi! Thanks for your further advice. Actually I had a PM arrive around the same time as you made your last post, giving pretty much the same list of Blondes that I should listen to and learn from. There was an extra name on the list though... you

On the topic of books, it is also a bit coincidental but I bought two books on my kindle a month or so ago and they are the King Yeo book and the Stamford Wong book. Haven't read them properly yet due to being ridiculously busy with family stuff, but I definitely will do.