Live cash 1/2 - Tough Turn spot - call or fold?

[kinboshi]

Would check the flop also, but the c-bet isn't that bad.

Definitely checking the turn though, and as played think it's a fold to the shoves (but would be interested to see what numbers say when they're crunched).

[cambridgealex]

this is just a maths decision - you put in their ranges into poker stove, put in your hand, then work out what pots odds you're getting and if your equity is greater than the odds required needed to call then call, if not, then fold.

Thread seems kinda pointless. Except to discuss the flop cbet which is pretty close, but I'd go for a check. Turn play seems bad also with stack sizes. Seems getting it through 2 players is unlikely and you really wanna see the river here. If stacks were shorter and you could just jam then I don't mind that, but you've put yourself in a shit spot now.

Check flop, check turn back as played.

[david3103]

this is just a maths decision - you put in their ranges into poker stove, put in your hand, then work out what pots odds you're getting and if your equity is greater than the odds required needed to call then call, if not, then fold.

Thread seems kinda pointless. Except to discuss the flop cbet which is pretty close, but I'd go for a check. Turn play seems bad also with stack sizes. Seems getting it through 2 players is unlikely and you really wanna see the river here. If stacks were shorter and you could just jam then I don't mind that, but you've put yourself in a shit spot now.

Check flop, check turn back as played.

The maths is easy once you have an accurate range

How do we get a decent level of accuracy in picking a range here?

Seems we have to include hands with eights in, plus hands with two clubs, hands with eights and two spades, sets, two pair type hands and all the other random stuff that might be in there too?

[cambridgealex]

Ok put it this way, we won't win without a spade or a jack (12 outs), most of the time the will be a loser (say 3/4s of the time) so let's say 11.25 outs. Rarely but sometimes we'll win with one of the 6 kings or queens left, (say 1/6th of the time) so lets add 1 more out for that making 12.25 outs (!) meaning we'll be about 25% to win.

So we need 3:1 pot odds.

[outragous76]

Ok put it this way, we won't win without a spade or a jack (12 outs), most of the time the will be a loser (say 3/4s of the time) so let's say 11.25 outs. Rarely but sometimes we'll win with one of the 6 kings or queens left, (say 1/6th of the time) so lets add 1 more out for that making 12.25 outs (!) meaning we'll be about 25% to win.

So we need 3:1 pot odds.

I just dont think in live cash  vs these stacks and this texture we can assign ranges that accurately, due to it being so draw heavy.

You could very easily end up drawing to 3 kings in this spot

Still not sure im folding thou  

(caveat - I 100% ck turn thou, so wouldnt have got here)

[LB44]

this is just a maths decision - you put in their ranges into poker stove, put in your hand, then work out what pots odds you're getting and if your equity is greater than the odds required needed to call then call, if not, then fold.

Thread seems kinda pointless. Except to discuss the flop cbet which is pretty close, but I'd go for a check. Turn play seems bad also with stack sizes. Seems getting it through 2 players is unlikely and you really wanna see the river here. If stacks were shorter and you could just jam then I don't mind that, but you've put yourself in a shit spot now.

Check flop, check turn back as played.

The hand got quite a debate going on the night so thought I would post it. Sorry, I won't bother next time

[SuuPRlim]

No defo post it. All discussion is good discussion. What Alex meant was there isn;t a great deal of point in discussing the turn call/fold decision in great detail as no-one really knows and its a spot we can actually solve pretty easily with the maths, if someone were to do it which no-one has,I think from my experience this looks like its going to be a marginally losing call off on the turn.

The flop and turn bets are way more worthy of discussion and this is the good thing about posting hands even when a relatively straight forward conclusion is that other note-worthy piece of play might come up.

The flop bet;

As said previously the flop texture really does smash the ranges of hands that call from the blinds, what this means is that one (or both) of the players will find something to continue with against your flop cbet quite a high % of the time, so when we c-bet we have to be fully prepared for the fact that it is very unlikely to get through. T97 with two clubs, I cuold list a bundle that will be check calling At, KT, QJ, K9, A8, Q8, J9 and so on.

One thing to note about the hands i just listed is that none of them are what you would call "monsters" so when we reach the turn card we're in position, and facing a range of hands which has a LOT of mid-strength and weakish 1pair hands in it, by then checking the turn we give those weak hands a really easy ride, we let them put minimal money in, we dont make there weak hands have to make tough decisions and we let them see all the cards and realise there equity cheaply. So to c-bet the flop, and then to not bet the turn is a pretty weak play.

The problem with the turn bet is we're barreling into a stack size which is going to get pot-stuck quite easily (find himself forced all in) and against a range with decent equity when we ourselves dont have much i think this is a mistake, if we cant bet the turn (on most turn cards) once called OTF, then i think betting the flop is a mistake. It's not like we have no hand either, we ourselves will be able to continue on a fair few turn cards and being IP we're going to be able to realise our equity most of the time should we turn something.

I think it's really important, speshly in cash games where you're generally a little deeper, to really think about future playability of your hand down the streets, if a bet at one stage in the hand is going to leave us open to to a tough decision or arwkward spot at a later one then it's really something we should try avoid doing. Think about how different types of turn card are going to change the dynamic and what exactly your plans are. Betting without at least some plan for the rest of the hand in deepstacked games can be really expensive.

Hope this helps, as for the question you ACTUALLY asked, Alex covers is pretty well in his post, it's going to be quite tricky to really asses a firm range, but I think we're entitled to assume our spades our live and that any club kills us. It's extremely difficult to conclude how often a K or a Q wins it for us, I'd be very inclined to think that a K or Q would lose it for us most of the time (all the QJ, KT types hands out there) to calculate you pot equity;

add up the total pot, £60 in there + £105 + £241 + your call (if you were to call) of £241 = £647 and you have to call £199 (£241 - your £42 bet) and you the amount you have to call (199) dived by the pot size (647) which equals 0.30... which is basically 30% so you need 30% equity to make a BREAKEVEN call.

like I say looks off the top of my head like a small losing call, throw in your K and Q being live an you prolly make a few quid calling.

[pleno1]

this is just a maths decision - you put in their ranges into poker stove, put in your hand, then work out what pots odds you're getting and if your equity is greater than the odds required needed to call then call, if not, then fold.

Thread seems kinda pointless. Except to discuss the flop cbet which is pretty close, but I'd go for a check. Turn play seems bad also with stack sizes. Seems getting it through 2 players is unlikely and you really wanna see the river here. If stacks were shorter and you could just jam then I don't mind that, but you've put yourself in a shit spot now.

Check flop, check turn back as played.

good post.

[LB44]

Thank you Dave. Really good post. I butchered the hand and I know I did so I just wanted to post on here to see what people said, so didnt think it was pointless.

In this game, I can't put the blinds on any range once they all call pre. They would call so wide it's unreal.

Sb had Q8 :s
Bb had 97 :s
I called after about 5 mins, and scooped with J river

[SuuPRlim]

In this game, I can't put the blinds on any range once they all call pre. They would call so wide it's unreal.

That in itself is a range, just super wide, and a super wide range smashes 79T with 2 clubs, they are just gonna have a piece so, so often.

I called after about 5 mins, and scooped with J river

wiiiiiiiiiii

[LB44]

It's also a great spot for the bb to shove as the sb was pretty spewy, Q8 shove with no fold equity...pretty terrible. The bb knows I fold AA-JJ here so easily too, because I'm a 'nit' So great spot to move in on a flush draw+pair type hands which my K's and Q's would come I to play too to make it a correct call some of the time. Plus the game was pretty soft I could just reload if I missed.

[stato_1]

This isn't really a tough question it's working out pot odds. Just plug it into pokerstove, it has a right answer its not matter of opinion in any way

[cambridgealex]

This isn't really a tough question it's working out pot odds. Just plug it into pokerstove, it has a right answer its not matter of opinion in any way

That's a bit harsh stato.

[stato_1]

Yeah I hadn't read page 2 when I posted that. Looks a bit bad given that everything I've
Said has already been posted. It is worth noting tho