ICM Spot: 3r FT

[rfgqqabc]

755
550
405
305
214

Chipleader been using is stack well, all other 3 very nitty. His first open jam, my first hand below 400k
PokerStars Hand #102507505019: Tournament #817010924, $3.00+$0.30 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXIV (6000/12000) - 2013/08/09 5:27:15 WET [2013/08/09 0:27:15 ET]
Table '817010924 31' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 2: snikess (121643 in chips) 10bb
Seat 4: leo_nando90 (1543650 in chips) 129bb
Seat 5: danielbena (196760 in chips) 16bb
Seat 7: Demonic16 (374868 in chips) 31bb
Seat 9: gregzila (167579 in chips) 14bb
snikess: posts the ante 1200
leo_nando90: posts the ante 1200
danielbena: posts the ante 1200
Demonic16: posts the ante 1200
gregzila: posts the ante 1200
gregzila: posts small blind 6000
snikess: posts big blind 12000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Demonic16 [ ]
leo_nando90: raises 1530450 to 1542450 and is all-in
danielbena: folds
Demonic16: folds

[pleno1]

What? No matter what this looks really bad. We haz queens ffs!!!!!

[rfgqqabc]

What? No matter what this looks really bad. We haz queens ffs!!!!!

We have close to double 3rd in chips though. Buying ICMIZER with the winnings!

[pleno1]

What? No matter what this looks really bad. We haz queens ffs!!!!!

We have close to double 3rd in chips though. Buying ICMIZER with the winnings!

Yeah but this doesn't take into account that we are more likely to get HU with 50+ bb rather than 20bb (blinds going up) and thus have a way better chance of gold and first place money.

For sure icm is a big consideration and I play toght accordingly, but this is a spot I wouldnt think twice about. Don't get me wrong I wouldn't totally disrespect icm and I would likely go ahead and fold the bottom of m range that I would usually reshove.

[Pugwashed]

Just plugged that into an ICM calculator and assuming he is playing a pure push/fold strategy and playing perfectly then we're supposed to call QQ+. That probably isn't that relevant as he isn't playing pure push/fold strategy. If my maths is right then we need 75% equity to call (our stack is worth 472.89 before the hand and 559 if we call and win so we risk 258.89 to win 87.01). Playing around with some sensible ranges that exclude ~top 5% then KK is a call, JJ is a fold, QQ is pretty meh and can easily become good / bad depending on how you tweak that range. If folding is a mistake then its probably a small one at worst and you could probably easily justify a small "mistake" there if you think that you're gonna play push/fold that much better than the short stacks

[theprawnidentity]

[lucky_scrote]

His range is so much more likely to be a hand that doesn't flop well or that he'd fold to a 3bet jam. It just feels like he's going to have small pairs so free here.

It's a bit annoying that there are 3 shorter stacks but you're hardly a lock to ladder atm.

If ICM says its close I'm snapping it in but I don't blame you much for folding.

[pleno1]

His range is so much more likely to be a hand that doesn't flop well or that he'd fold to a 3bet jam. It just feels like he's going to have small pairs so free here.

It's a bit annoying that there are 3 shorter stacks but you're hardly a lock to ladder atm.

If ICM says its close I'm snapping it in but I don't blame you much for folding.

Whilst it is true he will jam small pairs, the same can be said of ax hands which will always have 30% and be able to realise that equity.

[rfgqqabc]

Cheers guys, I snap folded tens which felt a touch dirty to his first jam but I was very confident in the tournament, tens felt comfortably below the call/fold threshold so I decided queens probably gets best responses. Just wanted to check it wasn't a downswing orientated fold.

[pleno1]

tens def a snap too imo.

[youthnkzR]

Think folding here would be a pretty big mistake. is still a call and 10s is much closer but still prob a call.

[pleno1]

if we win we have 60 vs 100 with two 15 stacks very easily could go into hu with a chip lead, fold and its gonna be harder.

ITS TENS FFS!!! theres not that much difference between tens and queens anyway, assuming he min raises broadways usually and is jamming this with pairs and ax.

[wazz]

Think TT is the cutoff, folding 99

[dwayne110]

This to me seems a snap call with 10's, I mean what hand is he open shoving that we're not at least a favourite, and in most cases a big one? If we consider range of hands we're up against here it's likely to be heavily weighted with underpairs, suited connectors, or 1 overcard to our hand. Think it's pretty reasonable to expect that if we compare our hand against his average range we're going to be winning 65-70% of the time here, too good an opportunity to pass up imo.