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Poker Hand Analysis
I think its an interesting spot..... you??
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Topic: I think its an interesting spot..... you?? (Read 1551 times)
jgcblack
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Posts: 3433
C'est la vie
I think its an interesting spot..... you??
«
on:
September 30, 2013, 02:22:26 AM »
Firstly - this hand is not played by me. It is played by an online mtt reg in a live cash game who has a good solid rep with ability to hand read and adjust to game dynamics.
Hand.
We are in the 'straddle' on a 1/2 game playing 700ish with either
-
-
-
There is a limp, raise to 16, call and call from the guy who bought button... we call and the limper does too.
FLOP
check, we check, check, bet 31, fold, fold, we call, fold. We cover him by 150ish..
TURN
we check he bets 91, we call.
RIVER
we check and he bets 156 with 340ish behind.........
question
- what does he do on this exact river when we check raise jam the three hands above???
The villain in the hand is a player who I've seen play well sometimes but definitely on the splashier side, when he digs himself a hole he can tilt and call off lighter than he probably should. Currently I don't know if he is losing much, but I'm pretty sure he isn't winning much, if at all.
what would you do, and why?
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rfgqqabc
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Re: I think its an interesting spot..... you??
«
Reply #1 on:
September 30, 2013, 02:42:49 AM »
I have no idea what the question is. This is very confusing. You give us 3 hands we can have then ask what we should do if we are the opponent vs these hands? What?
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[21:05:17] Andrew W: you wasted a non spelling mistakepost?
[21:11:08] Patrick Leonard: oll
jgcblack
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C'est la vie
Re: I think its an interesting spot..... you??
«
Reply #2 on:
September 30, 2013, 02:58:54 AM »
Quote from: rfgqqabc on September 30, 2013, 02:42:49 AM
I have no idea what the question is. This is very confusing. You give us 3 hands we can have then ask what we should do if we are the opponent vs these hands? What?
way I see it is these hands are representative of our range...
- medium strength bluff catcher
- nutty hands
- big draws/ semi bluffs
Lets say we get to this river with this 'range of hands'...
- we obv check raise the house for value
- can we check raise the AK for thin value/ merge?
- do we ever crbluff our missed monsters?
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rfgqqabc
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Re: I think its an interesting spot..... you??
«
Reply #3 on:
September 30, 2013, 03:06:41 AM »
Quote from: jgcblack on September 30, 2013, 02:58:54 AM
Quote from: rfgqqabc on September 30, 2013, 02:42:49 AM
I have no idea what the question is. This is very confusing. You give us 3 hands we can have then ask what we should do if we are the opponent vs these hands? What?
way I see it is these hands are representative of our range...
- medium strength bluff catcher
- nutty hands
- big draws/ semi bluffs
Lets say we get to this river with this 'range of hands'...
- we obv check raise the house for value
- can we check raise the AK for thin value/ merge?
- do we ever crbluff our missed monsters?
we can take all lines with all hands which is why poker is full of endless mystery. I can't imagine shoving our missed monsters, seems like a poor spot to do so. Both others are fine. AK not a merge, nothing better is folding.
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[21:05:17] Andrew W: you wasted a non spelling mistakepost?
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WotRTheChances
MinRaiseFTW, WotRTheChances, Quelles_Sont
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#Team_Eureka
Re: I think its an interesting spot..... you??
«
Reply #4 on:
September 30, 2013, 03:44:40 AM »
Quote from: jgcblack on September 30, 2013, 02:22:26 AM
question
- what does he do on this exact river when we check raise jam the three hands above???
I imagine he does the exact same thing when we have any of the hands listed... because his hand is a constant.
Answer for what we do.... jam 44, call AK, fold 45s. Can raise AK for value if you have some thoughts he'll call with worse enough, but seems thinish.
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jgcblack
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C'est la vie
Re: I think its an interesting spot..... you??
«
Reply #5 on:
September 30, 2013, 08:02:07 AM »
Quote from: WotRTheChances on September 30, 2013, 03:44:40 AM
Quote from: jgcblack on September 30, 2013, 02:22:26 AM
question
- what does he do on this exact river when we check raise jam the three hands above???
I imagine he does the exact same thing when we have any of the hands listed... because his hand is a constant.
Answer for what we do.... jam 44, call AK, fold 45s. Can raise AK for value if you have some thoughts he'll call with worse enough, but seems thinish.
Ok, kinda where I was...
now the
5 - lets say we thought this guy was more likely to barell off and fold to a river check shove than flop cr and street bombz from us. Don't we put him in a bit of a coffin if we do river check jam some combos?
The villain in the hand has very few strong hands but lots and lots of medium strength hands like A7/ A10, even 78 (shocking turn bet in this case) now improves but couldn't possibly be a call 100% to a shove, surely?
Obv its a flopzilla numbers game, but I'm guessing we have something like 10 value combos. And he has to call 350 to win 1k, but his river bet/call range will only be 5-10% of his river bet range as I think this exact villain actually barrels off too much in this spot and will have way too many Qxcc type hands.
What can he reasonably have for value having opened 9 handed utg+1 and bombed?
- AA, 44 (hmm??), 88, A8ss?, AK
Just seems such a great spot for a bluff......... no?
As a result if it is such a great spot, doesn't AK become a really sexy shove?
(Sometimes he has same hand and folds, sometimes he bet/calls AQ stubbornly and sometimes he somehow has 8x and .... folds?
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NoCardDSC
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Re: I think its an interesting spot..... you??
«
Reply #6 on:
September 30, 2013, 08:06:39 AM »
Feels to me like he isn't even thinking about folding, so c/r jamming the 45cc seems terrible. Call AK and jam the 44 i guess.
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WotRTheChances
MinRaiseFTW, WotRTheChances, Quelles_Sont
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#Team_Eureka
Re: I think its an interesting spot..... you??
«
Reply #7 on:
September 30, 2013, 09:12:48 AM »
You've described the villain as 'on the splashier side' but you think c/r jamming river here as a bluff will get through a load? It's live poker... people dont like folding AJ-AK or trips etc in this spot... and he has these hands a lot. Sure you might get him to fold some weaker Ax and obv missed FDs etc, but how often does he 3x barrel these? Just keep it simple imo... i mean you can justify c/r jamming most rivers on most runouts against anyone and claim its a 'nice spot' to c/r bluff, but in reality in live poker, betting for value >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> trying heroic c/r river bluffs against weak live lineups.
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pleno1
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Re: I think its an interesting spot..... you??
«
Reply #8 on:
September 30, 2013, 01:58:08 PM »
When the 8 pairs its like 5/6 handed pre his betting range is v like aq at a very minimum.
Why would we ever have ak? 3bet pre?
I'd call 87 and fold 54
Remember it's of one 5 way preflop
One of those moments when you look at each other with a little smile knowing so,embody is going to hit
He bets and we call with a sticky image so (ax or 8x) we've called 5 way remember
Turn he bets again and we call
Just after this action n matter what the river is villain will very likely check al,to any river that he doesn't improve on if he has aj or worse. People get kinda intimidated in 5 Way pots when they are called twice.
Otr when he bets again I feel like he's probably v strong and thus wouldn't bluff him.
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Quote from: TightEnd on December 16, 2013, 12:59:59 AM
Worst playcalling I have ever seen. Bunch of fucking jokers . Run the bloody ball. 18 rushes all game? You have to be kidding me. Fuck off lol
jgcblack
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C'est la vie
Re: I think its an interesting spot..... you??
«
Reply #9 on:
September 30, 2013, 05:21:55 PM »
This is good.....
Although I think it probably should be a good spot for a bluff, the reason for the thread is I actually think its a really nice spot for us to crjam AK.
We don't 3bt pre because of how sticky some of the guys are, were oop and think we can play the hand much more comfortably this way, knowing this villain will rep A/ K runouts a chunk and never expect us to have it, allowing us to get a lot of value from dominated hands in comparison to 3bt pre and bomb bomb bomb on this exact runout.
I didn't play the hand but I think I like pre, flop and turn. For me though, I thought it was at least a 50% of the time shove River... but I was the only one. Everyone else thought I was crazy.
Its thin, certainly... but its no Kinboshi.....
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pleno1
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Re: I think its an interesting spot..... you??
«
Reply #10 on:
September 30, 2013, 06:11:50 PM »
Aj 3bet?
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Quote from: TightEnd on December 16, 2013, 12:59:59 AM
Worst playcalling I have ever seen. Bunch of fucking jokers . Run the bloody ball. 18 rushes all game? You have to be kidding me. Fuck off lol
AlexMartin
spewtards r us
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rat+rabbiting society of herts- future champ
Re: I think its an interesting spot..... you??
«
Reply #11 on:
September 30, 2013, 09:30:59 PM »
pretty confusing post i think, regardless id cr all of those hands otf. Also think id prolly squeeze the AK and 45cc pre a lot, theres a decent chance of £100 dead from the off.
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jgcblack
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C'est la vie
Re: I think its an interesting spot..... you??
«
Reply #12 on:
September 30, 2013, 10:16:29 PM »
Quote from: AlexMartin on September 30, 2013, 09:30:59 PM
pretty confusing post i think, regardless id cr all of those hands otf. Also think id prolly squeeze the AK and 45cc pre a lot, theres a decent chance of £100 dead from the off.
against someone we think is more likely to barrel bad than call bad for lost of coins why would we cr flop with anything???
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AlexMartin
spewtards r us
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Re: I think its an interesting spot..... you??
«
Reply #13 on:
October 01, 2013, 03:48:22 AM »
obscenely deep, want to extract value and/or move him off better when he turns his hand faceup down the streets. In answer to your question, when we have no showdown value or equity. Your op said he was more cally than aggro btw.
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