i think fold equity is being underrated here. the number of times i'll shove in this sort of spot and someone will fold ace rag face up is surprising.
Calls a shove with: 44+,A2s+,KTs+,QJs,A5o+,KJo+
To be fair, according to nash A2-A4o are a fold. And we would maybe get them to fold some of the smaller suited Aces, but even in the original calculation villain is folding those rag Aces 100% of the time. The benefit we get isn't from getting him to fold a rag Ace, but from getting him to eyeball a wider range that we have, for the most part, in really bad shape. He will shove far more Kx Qx Jx hands that we have crushed that he will fold Ax.
When (if ever) do we have to start thinking about ICM in these? Is it even a factor should we just use cEV?
Once we get the FT we can start thinking about ICM, at least imo. But I don't really give it any serious consideration until were about 5 handed.
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