LEOCOP satellite bubble

[kingkev]

Damm QQ on the bubble, i was just wondering if anybody would of played if differently

LEOCOP 6 Seater $55 re-buy sat

1st - 8th $500 + 50 seat
9th $220

The average stack is about 14k, short stack 8.6k and on the other table which has 5 players 2 of them are hovering around 10k

On this ocasion the button raised to 5k, larger than the normal 2/3k which i was almost certain he had a mid PP or A-10 / A-J type hand which overbet to protect as he never wanted any action with it and he didn't want the SB to play back at him as he had done on a previous occasion.
I felt passing here was to tight a play as my chip stack was rapidly dercreasing and the player to my right was mostly auto-pushing when i was on the button leaving me with few stealing oppertunities.
Also i had made no re-steals and thought i had some fold equity in the hand because if the button calls my bet (when he is clearly behind and he seems to have a decent understanding of satelitte strategy) and loses the pot he is in a very desperate situation 4 handed  with 4k.

ok it's my first HH post  please look at the attachment below, can you insert the whole HH or does it hacve to be typed up?
King Kev

[tantrum]

- Pauhj1 sitting in seat 2 with $8620.00
- Steve99 sitting in seat 4 with $14020.00 [Dealer]
- Brasstal sitting in seat 5 with $12860.00
- _slow_hands_ sitting in seat 6 with $10720.00

Brasstal posted the small blind - $500.00
_slow_hands_ posted the big blind - $1000.00

** Dealing card to _slow_hands_:

Pauhj1 folded
Steve99 raised - $5000.00
Brasstal folded
_slow_hands_ went all-in - $10720.00
Steve99 called - $11720.00
Steve99 shows:
** Dealing the flop: , ,
** Dealing the turn:
** Dealing the river:
End of game 585141881


He raises 1/3 of his stack, i don't much about this player but by that I deduct if you push he will call anyway.  You are ahead so just got unlucky.

A lot of players overplay AJ/K/Q and are unable to fold. 





 
 Game
 Board
 Dead Cards
Hands (1 per line)

Sample Hands: Holdem  7 Card Stud  2-7 Lowball  Omaha
For draw games, separate discards from hand with a '/' character.

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2094136
pokenum  -h qc qs  - jd ac
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards      win   %win     lose  %lose   tie  %tie     EV
  1217164  71.08   488299  28.52  6841  0.40  0.713
   488299  28.52  1217164  71.08  6841  0.40  0.287


Edit note ... spam deleted.

[thetank]

No too familiar with laddies, are there two tables of 4 here?

If so, what are the stacks on the other table like?
If they are all in the region of 10k-15k too, then I probably pass this one on a sat bubble. Quite a lot depends on how it's playing, ie, what I estimate the chance of someone falling on their sword in the next 12 hands is.

If I do play, it's definately an all-in rather than a stop n go. I only like the stop n go when theres pretty much no possibilty of the opponent passing pre-flop. That's almost never true on a sat bubble. Even though the stop n go would have been likely to win the pot here, that's beside the point

[kingkev]

Hi Tank

This was a six seater table event with tables of 4 & 5 left, there was  more action at my table of 4, some of the short stacks had recently doubled up and it was looking  unlikely somebody was gonna fall in the next 12 hands

If facing an all-in bet preflop I'd of passed QQ without much thought but he did leave me some room for manoeuvre.

If you were in his shoes with AJ and you could see my holecards of QQ would you make the call with 3-1 for your money,

if you win the race you get your seat in the event   (30% chance)

if you lose the race you have 4k left while  4 handed with 500/1000 blinds  (70% chance)

or fold and preserve your stack at 9k

Anyway in the end i got $220 which was not disastrous for a $11 investment, although this did not effect my decision making.

[thetank]

If you were in his shoes with AJ and you could see my holecards of QQ would you make the call with 3-1 for your money,

if you win the race you get your seat in the event   (30% chance)

if you lose the race you have 4k left while  4 handed with 500/1000 blinds  (70% chance)

Lots of "educated" guess work here, but I reckon he'd have a 40% chance of still getting a seat with 4k left (after calling and losing).
..and naturally a 100% chance if he calls and wins.

Weighting the two together gives....

(30 x 100%) + (70 x 40%)
divided by 100 gives 58%

I think you'll get a seat way more often than 58% of the time with 9k, so in that scenario, I'd fold my AJ.

[kingkev]

Ok iv'e got up off my lazy ass and decided to do some math.

Given the chipcounts in proportion to the total chips in play i reckon a stack of 9k wins a seat 71% of the time, 4k has a 32% chance and if he calls all-in he has a 52.5 % chance of a seat.

Passing to the original button over-raise would leave me with  9k + app 71% chance of a seat so as i thought at the time it was a pretty marginal all-in play but the button had looked like he knew what he was doing, would pass the hand and accept he was behind.

  i forot that muffs overbet medium hands to protect them then call anyway when you re-raise them all-in.